199
FXUS63 KPAH 071109
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
609 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances return late tonight through the weekend,
  peaking Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

- A few strong storms are possible Saturday evening and overnight.
  Torrential rainfall may produce some flooding issues as well.

- Mainly dry next week, with a warming trend expected mid to
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Today will be a gorgeous day with a dry airmass in place. After
starting the day in the mid 50s to low 60s, we warm up quickly into
the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the low to mid 50s
will provide a somewhat pleasant feel despite temperatures being a
bit above normal.

Mid-level flow will be from the west-northwest over the weekend,
with disturbances riding through the area. More clouds than sun is
expected. A decaying MCS is expected to move southeast into our area
late tonight and Saturday morning. While this may impact the entire
cwa Saturday morning, it appears the northern half of the area (S
IL, SW IN, and north part of SEMO) would tend to be most favored for
it. How fast it departs will dictate how much we can destabilize
in the afternoon for additional development. Most guidance
suggests the bulk of the afternoon may end up dry, while
convection develops further upstream across central Missouri
late in the afternoon along a frontal boundary. This activity
then migrates southeast into our cwa during the evening and
continues overnight into Sunday morning. The boundary should
eventually shift south of our border, leaving most of the area
dry by later in the day on Sunday or Sunday night.

Guidance has trended warmer on Saturday ahead of the boundary moving
through Saturday night. Of course a lot also depends on how much
clearing occurs behind the morning MCS. Right now it appears
plausible to have a decent gradient in highs on Saturday from upper
70s in the EVV Tri-State to pushing 90 in part of southeast
Missouri. Dewpoints will quickly shoot up later in the day and
evening as well, pushing into the upper 60s to lower 70s (at least
across the southwest half of the area).

The environment Saturday evening and overnight does appear to be
conducive for a few strong to severe storms. 0-6km shear of 35-40
kts, MLCAPE of 1500-3000 j/kg, and 3-6km lapse rates of 7.5C are
forecast to develop across southeast Missouri. This airmass may
develop further east into parts of southern Illinois and far west
Kentucky as well, although confidence further east is lower.
Certainly agree with the marginal risk of severe that SPC Day 2 has
for the west half of the area. Main timing is probably 00-06z, but
can`t rule out some strong storms past 06z.

Another concern Saturday night will be training convection along the
boundary with the flow oriented more parallel to it. Precipitable
water values will be at least 2 inches and possibly a bit
higher. This will lead to very efficient rainfall from any
storms. Several of the CAMs (NAMNest, FV3, and RRFS) show swaths
of 2-3". WPC currently has part of southeast Missouri in a
slight risk ERO, but there is some potential for this to expand
even further east into parts of southern Illinois and west
Kentucky. Certainly something to monitor at least.

Early next week likely will be dry as high pressure builds across
the region and the main precip gets shunted south towards the Gulf
Coast. However, the 00z GFS throws a wrinkle into this with an upper
low diving south out of the Northern Plains into the Midwest on
Monday and across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. At the same time it
tries to phase with some of the southern stream energy to keep
periods of rain across the area Monday and Tuesday. Right now the
drier solution tends to make more sense though.

Temperatures will be a bit below normal Sunday through Tuesday,
ranging from the mid 70s to around 80. Thereafter, a warming trend
is likely as highs soar well back into the 80s by Wednesday or
Thursday and could approach 90 by the end of the week.&&

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Mainly clear skies through this evening, with increasing high
and then mid cloud tonight. -SHRA may enter our northwest
counties after 08z, with KMVN the most likely terminal to
experience it before the end of this TAF cycle. W/NW winds today
will become light and variable after sunset. Some gusts around
15-17 kts are possible at KEVV/KOWB this afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP