726
FXUS63 KPAH 030534
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1134 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy and cold tonight with the potential for areas
  of freezing fog to develop.

- Cold, winter-like temperatures hold thru the entire week with
  lows each night falling into the teens and 20s. Single digit
  wind chills are forecast late Wednesday night into early
  Thursday morning for northern portions of southeast Missouri
  and southern Illinois.

- A couple chances for low end precipitation chances are
  possible later this week and late weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The latest model guidance has trended in a more aggressive
direction with the freezing fog development overnight across the
Ozark Foothills. The worst period of the fog looks to be between
3 and 9 AM. Coordinated with our neighbors at NWS Springfield to
issue a Freezing Fog Advisory for this strip across
southern/southeast Missouri beginning at midnight through 9 AM
CST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Surface high pressure is settling across the region this
afternoon after the passage of our winter storm system that
brought some wintry precipitation to the area. Satellite imagery
still indicates cloud cover blankets the region with some
breaks in the clouds now being seen in SEMO. Gradual clearing is
expected later this afternoon and into the overnight at least
west of the MS river, but it may be awhile longer before areas
east of the river clear out. Low temperatures in the lower 20s
will be common tonight with upper teens possible across the
north. Areas of freezing fog is possible tonight into Wednesday
morning.

Surface high pressure breaks down and translates eastward
Wednesday before a weak dry front moves across the region. Can`t
rule out a brief snow flurry or two north of I-64. Behind the
front, high pressure plunges across the Midwest and moves into
the Ohio Valley by late in the week. Highs Thursday may struggle
to get to freezing across much of the area but quickly rise
into the upper 30s to 40s Friday and through the weekend. Lows
in the 20s will be common much of this week with upper teens
expected Thursday night. Wind chills may get into the single
digits late Wednesday night into Thursday morning for northern
portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Much of
the rest of the forecast is generally dry although we still
watch for the potential for another system or two that may bring
light wintry precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning,
and again on Sunday although a lot of uncertainty still exists
on moisture availability.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The vast sea of MVFR ceilings remains over all TAF sites and the
only reliable guidance continues to hold onto them through the
night and most of the day. The clearing line got right up close
to KCGI and now has stopped and is likely to build back to the
northwest. The latest satellite imagery already showing
redevelopment to the west over the Ozark Foothills. The TAFs
are little changed with a dip to IFR levels straddling 12Z, then
clearing mid to late afternoon. A surge of surface high
pressure will bring MVFR or lower ceilings back to KMVN at the
end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ100-
     107>109.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DRS