131
FXUS63 KPAH 041135
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
535 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are forecast
  through Thursday.

- A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms
  to the area on Friday.

- Another chance of rain is forecast Saturday night into Sunday,
  with cooler temperatures to end the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Surface high pressure is situated across the region this
morning providing calm to light winds. While upper level cloud
cover is streaming across the area, some patchy fog has
developed and will continue into sunrise. Dry and mild
conditions are expected for much of the week due to increasing
mid level heights while surface high pressure translates
eastward. Increasing southwesterly flow will result in warmer
temperatures this week with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
today through Thursday. Lows will be mild, with 40s to lower 50s
expected. A dry cold front is forecast to move through the
region on Wednesday with gusty southwest winds ahead of the
front.

By late week and into the weekend we start to see amplification
of the upper level flow as a trough moves into the Ohio Valley.
This will send a cold front through the region supporting
showers and a few thunderstorms Friday. While increased wind
fields would support organized convection, thermodynamic
parameters continue to look meager. Ensembles have shown a
slight uptick in CAPE values from its previous runs so this will
be something to watch over the coming days.

Drier weather returns for Saturday behind the front. Another
disturbance aloft will swing through the region Sunday possibly
bringing another chance of rain showers to portions of the area.
Much colder temperatures will follow for Sunday into early next
week. Highs Sunday and Monday are expected to top out in the
upper 40s to lower 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

After morning fog clears up, VFR prevails for the remainder of
the TAF period. Surface high pressure will translate east today
with low pressure in the northern plains resulting in a
tightening pressure gradient. Southwest winds 8 to 11 knots will
develop by the afternoon and continuing into the night. Winds
aloft are expected to increase which may result in low level
wind shear concerns late in the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...AD