191
FXUS63 KPAH 262023
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
223 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly but mostly sunny weather is forecast for Thanksgiving
  into Friday.

- A potent disturbance will impact the area Saturday. The
  precipitation will begin as snow or a rain/snow mix in the
  morning before changing to all rain Saturday afternoon.

- Light snow accumulations are possible along and north of
  Interstate 64 Saturday. Significant travel impacts are
  unlikely, but isolated slushy spots on the roads cannot be
  ruled out.

- Chilly, below normal temperatures will continue into early
  next week. Another system may bring additional chances for
  wintry precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, but forecast
  confidence is very low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Blustery and chilly conditions will continue this afternoon in
the wake of this morning`s cold front passage, but gradient
winds have begun to slowly relax. As a result have canceled the
Wind Advisory for White/Wabash Valleys a bit early. For the next
couple of days, Canadian high pressure will settle over the
region, bringing chilly but mostly sunny conditions for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Temperatures will be about 10-15
degrees below normal.

Another potent disturbance will develop across the central
Great Plains and move into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday.
While the local forecast area will be on the warm side of the
system, there looks to be enough lingering cold air in place
across the area to allow for the precipitation to begin as light
snow or a rain/snow mix.

Models are in pretty good agreement with some light snow
accumulations across the far northwestern/northern parts of the
forecast area (mainly along and northwest of a line from
Perryville MO to Mount Vernon IL to Petersburg IN). In these
spots, the latest forecast shows a slushy 1 or 2" of snow. This
is pretty close to the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean. Despite
prevailing southeast winds, thermal profiles look supportive for
wet-bulb cooling to occur in these locations, which would allow
temperatures to fall to or just below freezing for a few hours
Saturday morning. This would result in snow being the
predominate precipitation type, and when any accumulations would
occur.

Given the marginal temperatures, expected snow-liquid ratios
will be quite low, only 4:1 to 6:1. Adding the warm ground
temperatures, thinking the great majority of any accumulation
should be on grassy surfaces only. Further south, a trace of
snow at most is forecast. Major travel impacts remain unlikely
locally, but given the slight uptick in snowfall amounts, a few
isolated slushy spots cannot be ruled out Saturday morning
mainly along and north of Interstate 64.

By Saturday afternoon, temperatures will be well-above freezing,
and everywhere will be seeing rain, ending the small window for
very minor travel impacts. We will see a lull in activity
Saturday night into Sunday, with a small chance of light rain
or a brief rain/snow mix.

The next potential system to watch will be Monday night into
Tuesday. As it stands now, these system would have more cold air
to work with as H5 troughing deepens over the eastern CONUS.
Models are showing a southern-stream disturbance passing through
the Tennessee River Valley, and this would be a favorable
placement for wintry precipitation in our area, especially along
the KY/TN border. Since we are nearly a week away from this
disturbance, it will be something to watch for now, as the
forecast could still change drastically.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Blustery W-NW gradient winds, sustained at 12-18 kts with gusts
of 20-30 kts, will gradually relax this evening as surface low
pressure over the Great Lakes moves away from the region.
Associated SCT-BKN CU with bases around 4000ft will likewise
diminish.

Winds overnight through Thursday morning will be steady from
the W-NW around 5-10 kts. A weak disturbance passing to the
south and west of the area will bring a temporary increase in
mid- and high- cloud cover during the predawn hours, but no
precipitation is expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS