560
FXUS61 KPBZ 220514
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1214 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Probability of rain remains elevated through dawn. Mild
conditions are likely this weekend and into early next week.
Colder conditions expected Thursday into Friday with a passing
front. Snow chances may return Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

KEY MESSAGES:

-Rain chances will decrease between 6am and 9am this morning
-Temperatures near average today

---------------------------------------------------------------

Light rain continues across much of the region early this
morning as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio River
Valley. GOES-19 water vapor imagery shows dry air advancing from
the west, which should reduce both the coverage and intensity of
rain over the next 6 hours. The probability of measurable
precipitation drop sharply between 6am and 9am as the low shifts
southeast and surface dew points fall into the 30s behind a
front. A few light showers may persist south of I-70 late this
morning due to weak upslope flow along the ridges.

CLoud cover is expected to gradually diminish between 11am and
2pm as subsidence increases. However, areas near I-80 may hold
onto more cloudiness under northerly flow off Lake Erie.
Otherwise, temperatures will hover near seasonal averages today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Weak trough may bring very light precip amounts north of I-80
  on Sunday
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A weak surface and mid level trough will slide by to our north on
Sunday. Moisture in our area, especially of I-80, will be scarce,
with increasing subsidence and the best surface and mid-level
forcing off to our north. Depending how quickly the surface high
builds, we could sneak a few very light showers into far northern
parts of our area. Surface temperatures will likely be warm enough
to support rain with perhaps some graupel mixing in with steep low
level lapse rates and ELs pushing up to around -5C. Anything that
falls will be light; NBM 90th percentile QPF is a few hundredths of
an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry Monday with above normal temperatures
- Active pattern returns by mid-week with passing low pressure
  bringing rain for most
- Some lake effect snow is possible by week`s end
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Transient ridging will move through locally on Monday with high
confidence, and latest ensembles have come into better agreement
with departure of the weekend trough by Monday morning with subtle
mid-level height differences locally. Some subtle temperature
differences arise, but even a cooler solution still supports highs
into the low 50s and an overall comfortable day for late November
despite increasing clouds late.

The dry trend will be short lived as ensembles all favor another
ejecting mid-level trough and surface low through the central US by
Tuesday. The pattern is high confidence, but the details remain low
confidence with timing and depth of the responsible trough as some
members support a closed mid level low with others a fast open wave.
Associated low pressure likely passes through our area sometime
Tuesday-Wednesday and returns precip chances with then possible wrap
around precip continuing into the end of the week, but the low`s
track and timing is very uncertain lending low confidence impacts
locally. The likely track of the low will be to our north, keeping
us on the warm side, but how quickly it turns north will be
dependent on the strength of a surface high to our east. In any
scenario, not a whole lot of liquid is expected with it. Low end QPF
is around a tenth of an inch with high end closer to three quarters
of an inch, so even if the system can maximize, total amounts over a
48 hour period will likely remain below an inch.

Will then have to monitor what happens on the back side of the
departing low with regard to cold air and snow potential. What seems
most likely is that the lake effect machine would turn on with cold
air intrusion over the lakes, though the exact degree of cold air,
prevailing wind direction, and forcing still remains a question as
snow showers/bands could set up with a west-east orientation and
spare most of our area or a northwest to southeast orientation and
bring more impact locally. Entirely too much ensemble spread exists
to try to dive into specifics yet aside from following synoptic
scale trends. Bottom line for now is to monitor the forecast for
that timeframe into the coming week. If your post-Thanksgiving
travel plans take you along Interstate 90 from Cleveland to Buffalo,
snow is likely a bit higher probability in that corridor, so
reference the CLE and BUF offices` forecasts for the best
information.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread IFR, with pockets of LIFR, are expected through early
this morning as rain tracks across the region on the northern
side of crossing low pressure. Low level moisture in place
should maintain IFR, with some patchy drizzle possible, as the
main area of rain ends. Conditions are expected to improve
through MVFR, to VFR by early to mid afternoon with mixing and
dry advection in NW flow.

Mid and high clouds are then expected to increase tonight as a
cold front approaches from the western Great Lakes region.

Outlook...
Patchy MVFR cigs are possible Sunday north of PIT with the
crossing cold front. Otherwise, VFR is expected as high pressure
builds across the region through Monday night. Restriction and
rain potential returns Tuesday with a warm front, followed by a
Wednesday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...WM