121
FXUS61 KPBZ 230547
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1247 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty conditions are expected after sunrise with a passing
shortwave. Rain chances increase Tuesday with an approaching
disturbance, followed by mild conditions. Colder weather and
rising snow chances are expected Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Gusty conditions expected late morning into early afternoon
- Dry weather expected today with a mostly a clear sky
---------------------------------------------------------------

A shortwave moving through early this morning will boost the
potential for gusty winds between 10am and 3pm today. Lower
elevations can expect gusts of 25-35mph, while the higher
terrain of West Virginia and Pennsylvania may see 35-45mph.

Aside from the winds, conditions should remain dry with
temperatures near seasonal norms. Gusts will ease after sunset
as diurnal heating diminishes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Passing low over the Great Lakes may bring isolated rain
  showers north of Pittsburgh early Sunday
- Below freezing temperatures Sunday night
- Dry and milder Monday
----------------------------------------------------------------

Surface high pressure slides across the Upper Ohio Valley Sunday
night. This will clear skies and calm wind, leading to a good
radiational cooling night. Low temperatures below freezing are a
good bet, with the vast majority of the forecast area having an
80 percent or greater chance of low temperatures below 32
degrees.

Monday should dawn mostly sunny. Later, middle and upper clouds will
begin to invade in westerly flow aloft ahead of a relatively flat
mid-level ridge. The clouds should help to largely offset much of
the temperature rise from warm advection. Thus, continued fairly
seasonable temperatures for late November are progged.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances return early Tuesday and continue into Wednesday
- Colder conditions Thanksgiving and into the weekend
- Lake-effect snow potential late Thursday into Friday night
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Most guidance agrees that a shortwave over the central Plains at 00Z
Tuesday will ride northeastward towards the Great Lakes and dampen
out as it does so, while a surface low crosses the Upper Midwest.
The resulting southwest flow and shot of moisture is expected to
bring our next chance of widespread rain later Monday night into
Tuesday, along with above-normal temperatures. The steadiest,
heaviest rain is likely Tuesday morning, before advancing mid-level
dry air begins to limit QPF potential during the afternoon. A
wetting rain (0.10" or more) is likely, with NBM likelihood of 80
percent or greater areawide for this event through Tuesday night. A
more soaking rain of 0.50" or more is less so, with eastern Ohio the
main region with chances of 30 percent or more of such totals.

Thereafter, ensembles continue to advertise a notable pattern shift
from midweek on. The next, much stronger shortwave crossing the
Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday will likely wrap into a closed
500mb low by Thanksgiving, dropping a trough over the northeast
CONUS. Another mild day with showers is expected Wednesday, before
the return of subzero 850mb temperatures brings a return of below-
normal temperature and a change to snow showers beginning Wednesday
night. The difference between those 850mb temperatures and the Lake
Erie surface temperature may support some level of lake-effect
activity. Details on shortwave movement and low-level wind
trajectory become more muddled for the second half of the week. At
this distance, a more westerly or perhaps west-northwesterly flow
may be favored, which would keep much of the lake-effect snow north
of I-80, and the more significant potential totals closer to the
lake shore. It will be at least a few days before we are able to
forecast snow chances with a higher level of confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is expected through early morning as a band of stratocu/low
altocu cross the region with the approach and passage of a cold
front. Patchy, very light rain is possible at FKL and DUJ under
this cloud layer as the front crosses. Elsewhere, the CU rule
and model soundings indicate the cold advection after FROPA
should steepen lapse rates, leading to a scattered to broken
stratocu layer developing. Cigs should be mainly VFR south of a
BVI-IDI line, with MVFR to the north. Cloud cover will likely be
more scattered west of the PA/OH line as surface high pressure
begins to build in.

A tightening pressure gradient behind after FROPA, and mixing,
should result in WSW wind gusts to around 20kt by mid morning
through the afternoon. Wind should subside this evening under
the building high as the pressure gradient relaxes.


Outlook...
River vly fog is possible tonight, otherwise VFR is expected
through Monday night as high pressure tracks across the region.
Restrictions and rain returns Tuesday with a warm front,
continuing Wednesday with a crossing cold front. Gusty W wind
and patchy cig restrictions and scattered snow showers are
possible Thu in cold advection and a crossing upper trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Rackley/CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...WM