195
FXUS61 KPBZ 261835
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
135 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A much colder airmass will be in place through Saturday, and
gusty winds will linger into Friday. Snow showers north of
Interstate 80 are expected Thursday with locally heavy snow
bands potentially impacting portions of northwestern
Pennsylvania through Friday. Brief dry weather Saturday will
give way to snow that changes over to rain through the day
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Colder airmass advects into the region with persistently gusty
  wind
- Limited snow chances through Thursday morning.

---------------------------------------------------------------

The eastward exit of a surface cold front and its narrow line of
showers means the upper Ohio River Valley will see falling
temperature amid strong cold advection through this evening.
Deeper boundary layer mixing as a result of cold advection plus
the combination of strong surface gradients favor widespread 25
to 35 mph gusts (near 100% probability) with occasional lower
elevation gusts nearing 45 mph. For the Laurel Highlands and WV
higher terrain, the elevation difference means a greater
potential for Advisory level gusts (46+ mph) starting late this
afternoon through Thursday, as noted by the active Wind
Advisory. Along with potential downed tree limbs, these winds
will push area wind chills into the 20s and 30s during the rest
of the daytime hours before falling into the Teens during the
overnight period.

Though that deeper mixing and some jet-aided ascent could foster
isolated to scattered light snow showers after 6pm across
western PA, the more likely outcome is dry conditions overnight
as the region sits within the upper level trough dry slot. WSW
850mb layer flow will also ensure the development of a lake
effect snow band off Erie will remain north of the region during
the overnight period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Wind advisory continues Thursday morning for the higher
  terrain
- Winter Weather Advisory Thursday and Friday north of I-80
- Lake enhanced snow bands developing north of I-80 later
  Thursday into Friday
- Much colder with scattered snow showers south of I-80

----------------------------------------------------------------

An upper low over the northern Great Lakes and strong cold
advection will bring snow to the region, mainly for areas north
of PIT and in the ridges. Gusty winds will continue with a
tight pressure gradient and the boundary layer mixing with a
strong wind field aloft. For the most part wind gusts will
remain below advisory levels. Both latest ensemble guidance and
analogs are in agreement regarding that. The exception will be
in the ridges, where gusts from 45 to 55 mph will be possible,
therefore, have maintained the Wind Advisory for the ridges of
PA and WV which runs until Noon tomorrow. The highest gusts
will be across the highest terrain in eastern Tucker county WV,
and it`s possible the advisory may need extended into Friday
there.

Snow showers are expected to increase in coverage on Thursday,
especially north of PIT, as an upper trough rotating around the
low begins to approach. The boundary layer flow should be from
a WSW direction through the day, so it is possible areas across
northern Mercer, Venango, and Forest counties could see some
impact from a band of lake enhanced snow , and with a Lake Erie
/ h850 difference of nearly 20C, steep lapse rates, and a
saturated boundary layer extending up through the DGZ, advisory snow
amounts could be possible, potentially warning amounts in
localized areas if a lake band sets up and does not move much.
We have maintained the previously issued Winter Weather Advisory
for these counties Thursday, with a potential holiday travel
impact. Confidence is not high enough at this time, but if
confidence increases with hi-res models regarding persistent
banding farther south, an upgrade to a Lake Effect Snow Warning
will be possible across northern portions of the forecast area.
Will monitor later trends and guidance. The advisory may also
need to be expanded to Clarion and Jefferson counties, though
this will depend on the mesoscale features that drive the
heavier snow bands. The latest suite of model guidance is
largely clustered towards higher amounts to the north, with the
HRRR the only mode at this time showing a more southern band.

The mentioned trough will then lift to the north during the
day, which then boundary layer winds will veer more
northwesterly, increasing the risk of banding to impact farther
south into the aforementioned counties. This would also increase
upslope potential in the ridges. Will monitor later trends and
guidance. The advisory may also need to be expanded to Clarion
and Jefferson counties, though this will depend on the mesoscale
features that drive the heavier snow bands.

The upper trough axis shifts east of the area on Friday, though
scattered lake enhanced snow showers are still expected,
particularly north and east of PGH. Areas north of I 80 could
still be impacted by localized snow banding. Surface high
pressure begins to build in from the west Friday night, as the
boundary layer flow gradually backs to the WSW, and inversion
levels lower. This should gradually end the snow showers from
SW-NE through the night.

Cold temperatures are expected, with readings generally 10 to
15 degrees below average Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather returns Saturday
- Unsettled weather returns Sunday into next week

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Shortwave ridging, between the departing trough to our east, and
another approaching trough across the Plains, will result in
dry weather on Saturday. The Plains trough will advance eastward
Sunday, as surface low pressure tracks across the western Great
Lakes. Expect mainly light snow at the onset as this trough
approaches, with warm advection changing the precip to rain
during the day. The surface low is progged to move across
Ontario, pulling a cold front through during the afternoon.

Rain/snow chances should taper off behind the front Sunday
night. Otherwise, another trough is expected to track out of
the Central CONUS and approaching the region on Tuesday.
Critical thicknesses and 850mb temperatures indicate the Upper
Ohio Valley region will be near the rain/snow line, so will
include both of these weather types in the forecast with the
uncertainty. After an initial warm up on Sunday, temperatures
are expected to remain below average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong cold advection behind a cold frontal passage will return
broken to overcast stratocu that hovers between high MVFR to low
VFR (favoring VFR conditions) through the TAF period. Some lake
influence may yield more prolonged MVFR periods at FKL/DUJ,
especially through the daytime hours Thursday as 850mb winds
start veering to the northwest.

A few models indicate the combination of deep mixing and jet-
aided lift could squeeze a few light snow showers between
23z-06z across western PA, but the probability of occurrence
(due to notable dry slotting aloft) is too low for TAF mention
at most terminals. The most likely outcome is a prolonged dry
period with the residual surface gradient and steep lapse rates
resulting in 20-30kt gusts (up to 35kts between now and 00z).

Outlook...
Lake effect snow will encroach FKL/DUJ Thursday late morning
into the afternoon depending on the angle of the 850mb wind,
with a more likely push of lake bands coming late Thursday night
into Friday.

Height rises with surface high pressure should erode any
restriction/snow by Friday night before the next low pressure
system arrives Sunday morning.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday
     for PAZ007>009.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for
     PAZ074-076-078.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM/88
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...WM/88
AVIATION...Frazier