479
FXUS61 KPBZ 040009
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
709 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Zonal flow aloft brings a series of moisture starved and weak
cold fronts today and mid week. The pattern then amplifies late
this week into early next week with more active weather and a
turn toward much colder temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Breezy cold front brings a few light showers north of I-80
  this afternoon.
- Cool tonight with patchy frost.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Weak cold front passes through this afternoon with isolated to
scattered light showers along and north of I-80. Otherwise,
west-southwest winds will continue to gust up to 25 mph or so
throughout the afternoon.

High pressure then builds into the region tonight with clearing
skies but it will remain rather breezy through the evening. The
wind will likely keep temps from dropping below freezing,
except for the most sheltered valley locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and seasonable weather Tuesday and Thursday.
- Mild and breezy Wednesday as a cold front bring a few showers
  during the afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-80.

----------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure will bring a dry but cool day on Tuesday with
some mid and high level clouds around. However, zonal flow aloft
will usher in another cold front by late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. In advance of this system, temps will warm into
the upper 50s to mid 60s on Wednesday with a stiff southwest
breeze gusting 25 to 30 mph at times. The front will be rather
moisture starved and the greatest coverage of shower activity
should occur along and north of I-80, where rainfall amounts
should remain less than a tenth of an inch.

High pressure builds back in quickly on Thursday with temps
cooling back into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
- Next quick moving system bring widespread rain Friday.
- Second system late in the weekend likely to bring the coldest
  airmass of the fall so far.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Models indicate the zonal flow in place through the work week
amplifies over the weekend with deep troughing in place over the
eastern US by early next week. Two systems of consequence affect
our sensible weather with the first being a quick moving cold
front on Friday followed by a potentially more significant
front later in the weekend.

The first system passes through Friday afternoon into Friday
evening with widespread rainfall and gusty winds. NBM
probabilities point to between a quarter and half inch of
rainfall with this system with a modest cool down behind with
most locations remaining in the upper 40s to mid 50s Saturday
and Sunday.

The second system is likely to push through late Saturday night
or Sunday with what will likely be the coldest airmass of the
fall so far. In fact, rain showers will likely mix with or
change to snow showers Sunday night into Monday with high
temperatures on Monday struggling to rise through the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected across the area for the TAF period.
The gusty winds will continue to slowly decouple heading into
the overnight. This will lead to some terminals having a period
of LLWS. Overall, expected low and mid level clouds through the
night and into the day tomorrow. Light westerly winds will be
the case tomorrow.

.OUTLOOK...
High pressure provides VFR conditions Tuesday. A weak cold front
will then pass through Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night
with gusty winds to around 25 kts. This system brings rain
chances back to the area, but confidence in any associated
restrictions impacting area terminals remains low.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier/Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Shallenberger