529
FXUS61 KPBZ 010553
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
153 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue with temperatures trending back to above
normal by the weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions continue
-------------------------------------------------------------

Surface high pressure north of the region will maintain
generally light surface winds out of the northeast and dry
conditions. Cirrus has moved east of the region but despite
relatively light winds, drier air that has advected in should
largely limit fog development this morning. The best chance will
along river valleys. The northwesterly flow will usher in
relatively cooler temperatures, and daytime highs will be lower
than observed Tuesday and closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions continue
- Slightly cooler temperatures.
----------------------------------------------------------------

High confidence in eastern CONUS ridging dominating the period
with continued dry conditions. Due to clear skies and light
winds overnight, low temperatures are expected to remain around
or just below normal due to more efficient radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in warm and dry conditions prevailing through the
weekend.
- Low confidence on timing/strength of upper-level trough at the
  start of next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The ensembles remain consistent in showing the broad eastern
CONUS ridge remaining through the weekend, returning above
normal temperatures to the region and maintaining dry
conditions. Into the start of next week, an upper level trough
will begin to move into the area. There is low confidence in the
latest ensemble guidance as to when the trough will arrive and
how strong it will be. A stronger or slower trough increases the
probability of observing measurable rain (>= 0.01") on
Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure centered over eastern Canada will maintain VFR
conditions and NE wind through the TAF period. Dry advection
and a light NE wind should also preclude early morning fog
chances at area airports.

.OUTLOOK....
Patchy river vly fog is possible by the weekend, otherwise VFR
is expected through Sunday under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...WM