625
FXUS61 KPBZ 191157
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
657 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns through Thursday with building high
pressure. Rain chances increase overnight Thursday night and
continue into Saturday. Milder temperatures can be expected
with a gradual warming trend the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High temperatures moderate to near normal this afternoon
- Dry conditions resume
----------------------------------------------------------------

Low stratus remains stubborn this morning with trapped surface
moisture beneath a nocturnal inversion. There has been some
erosion north and west of Pittsburgh with localized subsidence
but elsewhere remains blanketed. Where the clouds are clearing,
some reduction to visibility is being observed with calm wind
and a moist ground from the past 12 hour rainfall. Some pockets
may be dense until sunrise when it likely dissipates.

Subsidence and drying with light northerly flow should break up
lingering stratus by late morning to midday, though model
soundings suggest enough boundary layer moisture will remain
through the day to support a cu deck this afternoon. Surface
high pressure will build over the Great Lakes today with h500
heights increasing between 6dm and 8dm by late afternoon
promoting a warming trend with high temperatures recovering to
near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quiet through Thursday with rain returning Friday and
  Saturday
- Seasonable temperatures
----------------------------------------------------------------

The mentioned surface high should be centered over NY State by
this evening, and will continue to slowly transition ENE
overnight and Thursday, maintaining dry conditions and near
normal temperatures through Thursday.

An upper trough dropping across the northern Great Lakes
Thursday night will return rain to the region on Friday as the
as warm air advection, moisture, and lift ramps ahead of the
associated surface low. The surface low is progged to cross the
region overnight into Saturday morning.

24hr QPF Friday morning to Saturday morning ranges from (south
to north)-->

90th percentile: around a little over an inch across northern
WV to 0.70" along I-80...and 10th percentile: 0.00" everywhere.

Either way, there is decent confidence that the highest
amounts will be across southern Ohio and central/southern West
Virginia. Differences in the speed and depth of the trough is
the reason for overall forecast uncertainty and spread in
outcomes. The current forecast is slightly higher (but close
to) the latest NBM mean values, ranging from 0.25" along and
north of I-80 to 0.60" across northern WV zones.

Regarding temperatures...By Friday, high temperatures will be
5-10 degrees above average behind the warm front. The associated
cold front is then progged to cross the region Friday night
into Saturday. The northwesterly flow behind the front may cause
showery precipitation to linger through Saturday, especially
along the ridges due to orographic lift. Despite cold FROPA,
temperatures are expected to remain near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Slightly above average temperatures continue into next week
- Dry conditions on Sunday, rain chances increase early next
  week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Zonal flow and surface high pressure will become the dominant
feature by Sunday, which will return dry conditions with subtle
height rises favored for a brief period of time. By Monday,
ensembles hint at upper- level troughing advancing towards the
region. This will bring the next best chance for rain Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR to LIFR stratus has plagued most sites this morning, though
localized subsidence has eroded the cloud deck north and west of
PIT. Satellite trends are holding the edge of stratus just over
PIT this morning with IFR on the cloud side and VFR/SKC on the
clear side. That said, where clouds have cleared, some pockets
of fog have developed under clear skies and light to calm wind.
That will be the case through sunrise with some dips to low end
MVFR for sites that see clearing of skies. Some slow expansion
of the stratus back to the north and west is evident on
satellite loops, though confidence is fairly low on how much
more it`s going to expand. Have the highest confidence that FKL
sees predominantly VFR conditions into this afternoon while
MGW/LBE/HLG remain in IFR to LIFR stratus through mid to late
morning until mixing gradually erodes the deck. PIT/DUJ/HLG/BVI
will remain on the cusp of the stratus through the morning.
While mixing will provide some erosion, restrictions likely
still remain through the day with enough boundary layer moisture
to support MVFR diurnal cu.

Winds remain largely light through the TAF period with a slight
Nerly or NEerly component through the day time.

Outlook...
High pressure continues Thursday but surface moisture will
maintain a 50/50 shot at VFR/MVFR cigs through the period.
Chances of restrictions and rain increase with a passing
disturbance Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLB/88
NEAR TERM...MLB/88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...MLB/AK