755
FXUS61 KPBZ 191828
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
128 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather remains through Thursday under high pressure. Rain
chances increase early Friday and continue through Saturday with
highest amounts south of Pittsburgh. Temperatures trend closer
to normal to close out the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather returns with near-normal temperatures
- Stubborn stratus blankets the south and east half of our area
---------------------------------------------------------------

Low stratus has still remained stubborn to erode early this
afternoon as it battles light northerly low-level flow and remains
entrenched along a line roughly from Jefferson through
Allegheny to Monroe Counties. As mixing on its periphery has
ensued, the coverage has taken on more of a scattered
cu/stratocu nature, and expect this to be the case through the
afternoon for the rest of the area that has cleared out as well.
How much the deck erodes is low confidence as model guidance
has struggled quite a bit with it this morning. Erring on the
more pessimistic side, which has been the trend thus far, the PA
ridges and northern WV may struggle to erode much of the
stratus altogether as the thick coverage has prevented enough
warming to mix it out.

An otherwise dry day is on tap as surface high pressure builds
across the Great Lakes and migrates east. Mid-level height rises to
the tune of 6-8 dam will support warmer MaxTs today than yesterday
despite the light northerly flow. Upper 40s are expected south and
west of Pittsburgh (save where the stratus lingers longest and a few
degrees may be knocked off of highs) with low to mid 40s to the
north.

Dry weather continues tonight as the surface high moves closer
overhead. The setup with light to calm wind would support efficient
radiating, but clouds are expected to increase in coverage and
thicken once again coincident with mid and upper level moisture
advection in increasingly zonal flow. Lows will thus drop to right
around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quiet through Thursday followed by rain on Friday
- Near to above seasonable temperatures
----------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday starts with surface high pressure centered over the
northeastern U.S. and ridging extending southwestward across New
York and into western PA. This will keep us dry but cloudy with
seasonable temperatures during the day Thursday.

Meanwhile, looking upstream, a shortwave trough over the southwest
U.S. lifts northeastward and ejects from the central Rockies across
the Great Plains. A warm front extending eastward out ahead of the
advancing surface low will push through the Midwest and Ohio Valley
regions late Thursday night into Friday, resulting in widespread
rain chances and temperatures rising to 5-10 degrees above seasonal
levels. Unfortunately, there is still a fair bit of uncertainty
regarding exact rainfall amounts with this system, though there is a
strong signal among guidance that (relatively speaking) the highest
amounts will fall along and south of the I-70 corridor. The latest
NBM 10th/90th percentiles suggest anywhere from zero rainfall across
the entire area to as much as 1.25" (locally 1.5" in northern WV),
which isn`t very helpful. Even the interquartile spread is 0.5" to
1.0" inches in most places, with the 25th/75th percentiles ranging
from zero to 0.6" north of I-70 and from 0.10" to 1.15" south.

Regardless, this would be a long-duration stratiform and steady rain
with rates remaining light to occasionally moderate. Thus, there is
little concern for flash flooding at this time and most area rivers
are expected to see only minor rises, if any.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Near to above seasonable temperatures continue
- Rain tapers Saturday, followed by dry conditions on Sunday
- Unsettled weather returns early to middle next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The upper shortwave trough and surface low mentioned in the short
term discussion will move across the area and depart to the east
Saturday morning. A few light rain showers or sprinkles may linger
into Saturday afternoon (best chances along the ridges), but for the
most part a dry forecast returns through at least Sunday.

By Monday, numerical guidance hints at another upper trough ejecting
eastward from the Rockies across the Great Plains, setting us up for
another low pressure system to move into the Ohio Valley region
during the early to middle part of next week. There is still too
much uncertainty to begin narrowing down any specifics regarding
precipitation types, amounts, or timing. The takeaway here is that,
at this time, the weather pattern next week appears unsettled.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR stratus continues to hold firm roughly along a line from DUJ to
PIT to HLG. Latest satellite trends are holding the edge of stratus
just over PIT and exhibiting some scattering along the periphery
with afternoon mixing. That said, remains a tough cig forecast for
the next couple hours with IFR on the cloudy side and VFR/SKC on the
clear side. Have the highest confidence that MGW/LBE/HLG remain in
IFR stratus through the mid-afternoon hours. PIT/AGC/HLG/BVI will
remain on the cusp of the stratus and should see some improvement to
MVFR this afternoon as mixing lifts cloud bases. Restrictions likely
still remain through the day with enough boundary layer moisture to
keep a BKN deck at those sites.

Winds remain largely light through the TAF period with a slight
Nerly or NEerly component through the day time.

An increase in mid and upper level cloud coverage is expected
tonight with moisture advection within increasingly zonal westerly
flow. Still relatively pessimistic that MGW/LBE/HLG, especially,
ever get out of MVFR as moisture again gets trapped beneath a
subsidence inversion tonight. MVFR probability remains elevated
there at 60-70% overnight with closer to a 50/50 shot at PIT and
much lower at FKL/DUJ. Some pockets of fog are possible similar to
Wednesday morning, but confidence is low on location and density
given a low confidence cloud forecast. Probability would be higher
if/where clouds scatter out the most.

Outlook...
High pressure continues Thursday but surface moisture will
maintain a 50/50 shot at VFR/MVFR cigs through the period. Chances
of restrictions and rain increase with a passing disturbance
Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak/MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...Cermak
LONG TERM...Cermak
AVIATION...MLB