554
FXUS61 KPBZ 161828
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
128 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake-effect snow is expected north of I-80 Sunday night into
Monday. Another passing system brings a rain/snow mix Tuesday.
Temperatures rise midweek before rainfall returns late-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain changing to snow this afternoon
- Gusty conditions through tomorrow; Wind Advisory for eastern
  Tucker
- Lake effect snow north of Pittsburgh tonight into tomorrow;
  winter headlines in effect

----------------------------------------------------------------

Advancing cold air from the northwest late tonight into Monday
will enhance the potential for lake-effect snow showers across
parts of the region.

Current temperatures range from the upper 40s to mid-30s, and
light precipitation is occurring north of Pittsburgh. Surface
reports (via mPing) indicate a mix of rain, wintry mix, and snow
at this time. Over the next 6 hours, precipitation is expected
to transition to all snow as cold air moves in aloft -- with
850mb temperatures falling to around -8 degrees Celsius -- and
moisture increasing within the dendritic growth zone. With a
steady fetch off Lake Huron and Erie, high-resolution model
guidance continues to show a narrow band of heavy snow pushing
into the vicinity of Forest County after dark and persisting
into early Monday morning. Given the higher probability of
heavier snow in Forest County, a Lake-Effect Snow Warning was
issued earlier this morning for snowfall amounts ranging between
6 to 10 inches. However, localized higher amounts (up to a
foot) can`t be ruled out.

With snow ratios beginning around 8:1 early this evening, the
snow will initially be wetter and heavier, leading to some
compaction. As a result, accumulations may be slow to increase
until after nightfall, when surface temperatures and snow ratios
climb above 12:1.

There is potential for the snow band to drift west and south of
Forest County at times, which supports the Winter Weather
Advisory currently in effect for Clarion, Jefferson, and Venango
counties. However, if the band lingers over any of these areas
for an extended period, an upgrade to a Lake-Effect Warning may
become necessary.

By early Monday afternoon, a slightly westward shift in the
boundary-layer wind pattern over the Great Lakes will likely
cause the heavy snow band to weaken or drift north/northeast
effectively ending the threat for significant snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quiet Monday night
- Another system crosses the region Tuesday returning a
  rain/snow mix
----------------------------------------------------------------

With a ridge building from the west late Monday into early
Tuesday, expect quiet and dry conditions. Overnight temperatures
will trend below average due to clearing prompting radiation
cooling and linger cold air aloft.

After sunrise on Tuesday, a new disturbance is expected to move
out of the northern Plains and into the Ohio River Valley,
bringing precipitation chances back to the region. There is a
chance that precipitation will begin as snow, with lingering
low and mid-level dry air supporting cooling aloft through wet-
bulbing. Given temperature profiles at peak saturation hovering
near freezing, any snow that does develop will likely be wet
and heavy and limit amounts. By late morning or early afternoon,
all precipitation type will likely switch to rain with warm
advection. Rainfall amounts will be considered light, ranging
between a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch. Localized
higher amounts may be measured in the ridges of West Virginia
due to upsloping.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures into next weekend
- Rain chances rise again late week with another passing
  disturbance likely
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles continue to agree overall on rising 500mb heights during
the second half of the work week, leading to temperatures rising
above normal, and decidedly so by Friday. Despite the ridging aloft,
low pressure traversing the Lower Ohio Valley may spread weak
inverted surface troughing further downstream, supporting some low
chances of light rain Wednesday night and Thursday.

Thereafter, the majority of ensemble members favor a shortwave
trough riding from the Central Plains northeastward towards the
Great Lakes on Friday. Strength and timing issues do remain among
the various solutions. In any case, increasing moisture on southwest
flow seems to favor increasing rain chances Thursday night with the
approach and passage of a warm front, followed by a cold frontal
passage during the Friday/Friday night period. Showers may linger
into at least Saturday in post-FROPA northwest flow, before a drier
trend may return by Sunday. At this time, temperatures look to
remain near to just above normal even behind the front, with most
ensembles keeping 850mb temperatures above zero. So, a return to
wintry precipitation next weekend is not favored at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake-effect showers will continue to cross portions of the
region this morning into Monday. At first, shower precipitation
type will likely start as rain and change over to snow.

Terminals that will likely be impacted will be FKL and DUJ. If
a snow band ventures over one and/or both of these terminals,
LIFR conditions could occur with poor visibility (less than
1/2SM) and reduced cigs. Elsewhere, the probability prolong
restrictions is considered low and VFR is likely.

Confidence in impacts at DUJ is fairly high, but probability is
lower at FKL, where snow showers may be more isolated.

With a tight pressure gradient, expected wind gusts to range
between 25 to 35 kts today into early Monday.

Outlook...
Lake effect snow band(s) may persist across the I-80 corridor on
Monday before diminishing Monday night.

Periodic restriction and precipitation chances are favored
through next weekend as an active weather pattern is likely to
continue.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ008-015-
     016.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ009.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...Hefferan