320
FXUS61 KPBZ 250620
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
120 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain is expected today as a warm front lifts north across the
area. Rain chances continue Wednesday as a cold front crosses.
Much colder air will move across the region for Thanksgiving
through the end of the week, along with snow shower chances.
Lake enhanced snow is expected along and north of Interstate 80
Thanksgiving and Friday, with scattered snow showers at times
elsewhere.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain and warmer temperatures return
---------------------------------------------------------------

A shortwave trough will track from the Midwest to the Upper
Ohio Valley region today. At the same time, a surface low will
deepen across the Upper Midwest, as it`s associated warm front
lifts north across the region. Increasing moisture and ascent
in SW flow aloft will result in rain overspreading the region
today. The Upper Ohio Valley region will also be under the
right entrance region of an upper jet, and on the leading edge
of a low level jet, both of which should also enhance ascent.

Wind aloft will increase, though the warm advection pattern
should keep at least a weak inversion in place at the surface,
keeping the wind from mixing down. High temperatures are
expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average under the warm
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain tapering off Wednesday
- Gusty wind Wednesday and Thursday
- Falling temperatures Wednesday, colder Thursday
- Snow showers Wednesday night through Thursday night N of I 70
- Lake enhanced snow along/north of I 80 Thursday and Thursday night

----------------------------------------------------------------

Widespread rain should become patchy in coverage tonight as the
initial shortwave and surface warm front exits to the NE. A
deepening shortwave trough is progged to be located across the
Upper Midwest this evening, as the surface low continues to
strengthen.

The trough will continue to approach Wednesday, as the low
tracks across the Upper Great Lakes, pulling a cold front
across the Upper Ohio Valley region. A band of rain/showers is
expected with the front, which should cross the area from W-E
during the morning/early afternoon. Total QPF is expected to
range from 0.5 to 0.75 inches. A tightening pressure gradient,
and steepening lapse rates in cold advection, should lead to
gusty winds after FROPA, continuing into Thursday. Gusts from
30-40mph are likely for much of the area. Wind gusts could
approach advisory levels (above 45mph) across the ridges, with
NBM showing the highest probability of this occurrence across
the higher terrain of eastern Tucker county WV.

The upper trough axis is progged to cross the Upper Ohio Valley
region Wednesday night, and any rain showers will change to
snow showers from late Wednesday into Wednesday night under
strong cold advection. Model soundings indicate a lack of
saturation in the dendritic layer keeping snow shower intensity
low.

The focus for snow showers is expected to be north of PIT on
Thanksgiving, as a vort max rotates through the main upper
trough. There could also be some lake enhancement north of I-80
as the boundary layer flow begins to veer from SW to WSW,
though the more favorable area for lake enhancement is just
north of the forecast area.

The boundary layer flow is expected to veer more to the W or
WNW Thursday night, as another shortwave/vort max rotates
through the main trough. Scattered snow showers are expected
with this trough across much of the region, with more numerous
lake enhanced snow showers near and north of I-80. A Winter
Weather Advisory is likely to be issued in the future as
mesoscale features become more resolved in numerical guidance.
Current NBM probabilities for advisory level snow range from
50-70 percent across the tier of counties north of I-80, will
will continue to include this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Much colder temperatures are expected by Wednesday night,
continuing through Thursday night, with readings 10 to 15
degrees below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Snow showers gradually taper off from S-N Friday
- Temperatures moderate over the weekend through early next
  week
- Unsettled weather continues

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate the upper trough will begin to shift
eastward on Friday, with boundary layer winds gradually backing
to the SW by Friday night. Snow showers should gradually
decrease through the day from S-N, though lingering lake
enhancement could bring additional snow accumulations mainly
north of I-80.

Another shortwave trough is expected to rapidly track from the
Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region late Saturday into
Sunday, with rain and snow chances returning. Another trough in
the amplified pattern aloft is expected to approach the region
Monday, with mainly rain chances, though some snow is possible
at the precip onset. Temperatures are expected to gradually
moderate through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low-level subsidence will likely keep terminals at VFR
conditions over the next 6 hours with variable winds.

Rain, followed shortly by MVFR ceilings, will overspread the
area between 12Z to 15Z. Continued degradation in ceilings is
expected through the morning as the warm front crosses,
resulting in IFR across the area by 18z. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, mainly between 15Z to 20Z, with the low-level
jet advancing over northern West Virginia/southern Pennsylvania.

Rain intensity will likely diminish from west to east between
22Z to 00Z with advancing mid-level dry air. However, cig
restrictions will likely continue with remnant boundary layer
moisture.

Outlook...
Gusty showers are expected late Wednesday morning with a passing
cold front.

Patchy cig restrictions and scattered snow showers are expected
Thursday into Friday with subsequent upper troughing and cold W-NW
flow. Vsby restrictions in snow are also possible at FKL and DUJ due
to the potential for lake effect banding. Currently, there is not
high confidence in how far south the banding could setup.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Hefferan/Rackley