912
FXUS61 KPBZ 051738
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1238 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic light snow chances and below-normal temperatures
continue through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cool and mostly cloudy, with flurries possible south of
  Pittsburgh, with chances decreasing overnight.
---------------------------------------------------------------

A weak shortwave embedded in the flow will continue to pass to
the south today, allowing for some weak column lift, particularly
when combined with a subtle inflection point in the upper jet.
This has allowed some flurries to occur well into the forecast
area this afternoon, on the "optimistic" side of the ensemble
distribution. Some brief amounts of snow will decrease
overnight, with the only chance of any light accumulations in
the high terrain (50% to 60% chance of any accumulation, 10%
chance of greater than 1"). Overcast skies are more favored in
western PA and northern WV, with partly cloudy skies in eastern
Ohio in a narrow corridor.

Otherwise, cloud cover is expected to continue to fill in
overnight, making radiative cooling far less efficient. In
addition, the sfc-850mb will be much warmer than the night
prior, keeping forecast lows ~10 degrees warmer than Friday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Below normal temperatures continue
- Additional waves of light wintry precip over the weekend
- Only minor accumulations expected, primarily north of I-80 and
  in the ridges
----------------------------------------------------------------

A series of weak mid-level shortwaves traverse the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley over the weekend. The first brings low chances
for light snow showers to areas generally near and north of
Pittsburgh on Saturday, with little or no accumulations
expected. This is further confirmed in the NBM with the
probabilities roughly below 20% for the southern/low elevation
areas receiving even a tenth. The second wave is slightly
stronger than the first and brings higher chances for a wintry
mix to the entire area on Sunday. Precipitation is expected to
start at snow (possibly a rain/snow mix in the Mon Valley)
Sunday morning before transitioning to a rain/snow mix across
the lowlands south of I-80 by late morning and afternoon.
Overall accumulations with the Sunday system are still
anticipated to be light, with measurable snowfall appearing most
likely north of I-80 and in the ridges. The latest NBM
probabilities in those areas suggest a 20-40% chance of
exceeding an inch, 10-20% chance for 2 inches, and a nil chance
for 3 inches. This leaves locations such as Pittsburgh a 40% to
60% chance for just a 20% to 30% chance for even a half inch.

A cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cold air and
northwest flow late in the day Sunday into Sunday night,
will slowly bring an end to the precipitation just about
everywhere by Monday morning. The ridges will likely keep the
flurry activity going through dawn on Monday morning but will
still come to an end rather quickly.

Highs on Saturday and Sunday reach the mid to upper 30s for much
of the area. Lows Saturday night continue a slight warming
trend and remain in the mid to upper 20s, while lows Sunday
night drop back into the teens and low 20s under post-frontal
northwest flow and cold advection. Keep in mind that these
temperatures are still below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Below normal temperatures continue the middle of next week.
- Another round of winter weather potential towards mid week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Dry post-frontal flow and building surface high pressure keep
the area dry and cold to start next week. The mentioned high
will keep any precip from lifting north into the forecast area,
as a low pressure system is expected to pass to the south. While
Tucker and Preston counties could see some light snow on Monday,
the amounts will be less than an inch with the rest of the
forecast area remaining dry. In fact the NBM probs give a less
than 10% for even a inch of snowfall.

The Tuesday and into Wednesday disturbance will feature a
strong and progressive low pressure system track in from the
northwest as the trough over the east continues to filter into
the region colder air and precip chances. However, given some
warm advection in from the south on Wednesday, there will likely
be a change over to rainfall. There also stands the chance for
some freezing precip to mix in at times. The Tuesday and
Wednesday shortwave will be one to watch as well as the long
term period features an active pattern. This in conjunction with
the overall colder than normal temperatures expected, can
expect the potential for snow in the extended. Colder air will
filter in behind the front on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- MVFR for most today, clearing to VFR overnight
-------------------------------------------------------------------

A mix of MVFR and VFR remains and is largely dependent on being
under an overcast stratus deck or not. Uncertainty remains for
BVI/HLG/FKL as modeling and current observations have sharp
gradient in cigs (and clouds) near each of these ports. This may
waver throughout the day, bringing these ports in and out of
MVFR.

This gradient is expected to shift east overnight, bringing
improvements to VFR with it. The most uncertainty in the
forecast overnight will linger for LBE and MGW depending on if
the cloud gradient mike its way that far east for not. Though at
this time, it is most likely (75% chance) to maintain MVFR
overnight.

High clouds are expected to fill in from the west throughout the
overnight period and into tomorrow, which are expected to start
as VFR, but MVFR may begin to trickle in by afternoon with a low
chance of some flurries.

Outlook... Periodic restrictions seem likely through the
weekend and into early next week with crossing systems
continuing low end chances for snow.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/Cermak
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...Milcarek