386
FXUS61 KPBZ 041843
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
143 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light, scattered snow showers will diminish this afternoon
followed by clearing skies and light wind, which combined with
existing snow cover will result in overnight lows dipping into
the single digits to mid-teens. Additional light snow chances
and below-normal temperatures should continue into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light snow ends by this evening
- Near-record low temperatures Friday morning
---------------------------------------------------------------

The current conditions across the area feature the cold front
tracking from northwest to southeast across the area. The front
extends from Du Bois to Zanesville as it slowly drops southeast
through the area. Behind the front has resulted in a wind shift
to the northwest and then snow showers developing behind the
front and tracking through the area. This is dissipated slowly
with time as well. Drier air is expected to infiltrate the area
as well heading into this evening as skies clear out overnight.
This will result in some of the coldest temperatures of the
season so far. Low temperature records could be broken at PIT,
DUJ, MGW, and HLG climate sites with lows in the lower teens
forecasted and even single digits at DUJ. At this time, the NBM
prob of exceedance for the record break of 12 degrees at PIT is
roughly 60%. Thus, there could be a bit more cloud cover or a
bit more wind than expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Near-record low temperatures Friday morning.
- Low confidence in snow Friday.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Generalized zonal flow over the Ohio Valley on Friday will be
marred slightly by a flat mid-level wave, with a surface
reflection tracking across the Deep South. The most likely
scenario remains a round of light snow for the WV ridges of
under an inch. The total range of scenarios run from a far
south storm track with no snow at all in the forecast area, to
a partial recurve along the Atlantic Coast that could push light
snow as far north as Pittsburgh, and provide a few inches to
the ridges of Preston/Tucker Counties. Given the pattern, the
former seems like a more reasonable outcome than the latter.
Any snow would depart by sunset, leaving a dry and cold Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Below normal temperatures continue into early next week.
- More winter weather potential.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The troughing pattern continues through the extended period,
continuing the trend of below-normal temperatures. Periodic
shortwaves within the longwave pattern will provide several
chances for snow through the period. At this time there is not a
signal for any large event, but in any case, there is generally
a 20 to 50 percent chance according to the NBM of a total snow
accumulation of one inch or more through the period. The highest
chances of any accumulations would be for the PA/WV ridges, and
the lowest would be in eastern Ohio. A reinforcement of cold
temperatures appears likely; maximum values in the 30s
Saturday/Sunday have a 70 percent chance or greater of falling
below freezing on Monday.

Mid-to-late week temperature uncertainties would be more tied
to amplitude uncertainty of the semi-persistant eastern trough.
A stronger prevailing trough would allow for cooler conditions,
with higher chances of low-QPF snowfall. A weaker trough would
likely correlate to warmer conditions with higher QPF potential
in mixed precipitation events.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Snow is ending
- Clearing is expected tonight with much colder temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The cold front that dived south across Lake Erie and across the
forecast area will continue to drop southeast. Expect some MVFR
and even IFR cigs to continue through the afternoon before
seeing some clearing tonight. By 22Z across the area, most
locations should clear out and become VFR. The lone exception
would be FKL and DUJ in the north as the MVFR conditions hold on
for a bit longer as the HREF probs still give a 60% prob of
cigs at 3 kFT or lower.

Winds will gust out of the northwest through this evening with
some gusts reaching 20 knots at times. Winds will then become
calm overnight with some light and variable winds expected
tomorrow.

Outlook... Restrictions are possible again Saturday and Sunday
with a crossing cold front. This will create another snow shower
event where MVFR and IFR restrictions are possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
At least four of our climate sites have a chance to challenge
record low temperatures for December 5 on Friday morning. Two
other sites are less likely to approach their record lows.

                 Current 12/5          Forecast
Site             Record Low               low
----             ----------           ------------
Pitt Intl        12 (1976)            11
Morgantown       11 (1974)            14
DuBois           10 (1991)            7
Wheeling         12 (1944)            12
Zanesville       3 (1957)             11
New Philadelphia 2 (1966)             9

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CL/88
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...CL/88
LONG TERM...CL/88
AVIATION...Shallenberger