400
FXUS61 KPBZ 071208
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
708 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and gusty winds return today into tonight with the
approach and passage of a cold front. Generally dry weather is
expected Saturday, before rain returns Sunday with low
pressure. Rain will mix with and change to snow Sunday night ,
with snow showers and much colder temperatures Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and gusty wind return today
---------------------------------------------------------------

Clouds will increase this morning in warm advection ahead of a
shortwave trough, approaching from the Midwest. Surface low
pressure is also progged to track from the Upper Midwest,
through the Upper Great Lakes to Ontario by late in the day.
Moisture and ascent is expected to increase in southwest flow
ahead of the trough by this afternoon as an initial vort max
crosses. A jet will also result in an increasing wind field
aloft, enhancing ascent. Rain showers will overspread the
region from W-E as this initial wave moves across the region.

There is a slight chance of thunder mainly south of I-70 late
this afternoon, though instability should remain limited (ML
CAPE 100 j/kg or less.) Plenty of shear is expected to be in
place, though instability is expected to be too limited to
result in a severe storm potential.

A warm layer off the surface should keep the strongest wind
aloft from mixing to the surface today, though it will still be
gusty. Currently expect gusts from 30-35mph for much of the
area by this afternoon. With the warm advection, high
temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain and gusty wind through this evening
- Mainly dry Saturday
- Rain returns Sunday
- Colder with rain mixing with/changing to snow Sunday night
----------------------------------------------------------------

Showers will continue this evening as the low tracks further
eastward, pulling a cold front across the area. The Upper Ohio
Valley region is also expected to be under the right entrance
region of a 250mb jet, resulting in additional ascent. Shower
chances are expected to decrease overnight as the front exits,
though a few showers will still be possible through early
Saturday morning as the main upper trough axis crosses.

The remainder of Saturday should be mainly dry as flat
shortwave ridging briefly builds in behind the exiting trough.
A deepening trough is expected to dig across the Northern
Plains to the Midwest Saturday night and Sunday. At the same
time, deepening surface low pressure is progged to track from
the IL/IN area to the Lake Erie area by mid morning on Sunday.
Rain chances will increase late Saturday night as an initial
wave/vort max approaches in southwest flow ahead of the main
trough.

Rain is expected to peak in coverage from mid morning to early
afternoon as the surface low continues tracking ENE, and pulls
a surface cold front across the region. Some decrease in the
rain chances is possible Sunday afternoon after FROPA.
Temperatures are also expected to fall through the afternoon in
cold advection.

Areas of rain are expected to mix with/change to snow Sunday
night in cold advection, as the trough continues to deepen from
the Great Lakes region to the Gulf Coast. Minor snow
accumulation (a few tenths of an inch) will be possible, mainly
on grass and elevated surfaces.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Much colder with snow showers Monday into Tuesday
- Accumulation possible mainly north of I-80 and in the ridges
- Unsettled Wednesday and Thursday with occasional rain/snow
  chances mainly north of Pittsburgh
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate the deep longwave trough will slowly
advance across much of the eastern CONUS Monday and Tuesday.
This will keep scattered to numerous snow showers across the
Upper Ohio Valley region.

850mb temperatures are expected to drop to between -8 and -10
deg C, as Lake Erie temperatures remain around +12 deg C. Lake
and terrain enhancement will be possible Monday into early
Tuesday, though mesoscale features (such as a reinforcing
surface trough) will greatly affect the boundary layer flow and
the timing/location of the best lake connection. The latest NBM
probabilities have decreased to between 30 and 40 percent for
advisory level snow north of I-80, while probabilities have
remained from 40-50 percent in the ridges. Will continue to
monitor this as some of these mesoscale features become better
resolved in later model data, as it is still too early to
pinpoint any specifics.

The trough is expected to begin to shift east of the area on
Tuesday, as boundary layer flow backs to the SW. Snow shower
chances should decrease through the day as this occurs.

Broad upper troughing is then expected to persist across areas
from the Upper Midwest into New England. Occasional rain/snow
chances will be possible, mainly north of PIT, as individual
shortwaves rotate through the trough.

Temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees below average
Monday and Tuesday, before moderating some by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue this morning as surface high
pressure moves off to our east, and we see an increase in mid/upper
level cloudiness ahead of approaching low pressure. Model
soundings indicate increasing winds up to 40-45kts above the
nocturnal inversion early this morning through mid morning,
until low levels begin to mix. This supports low- level wind
shear threat during the morning hours. After the boundary layer
deepens with mixing, surface wind gusts should increase to
between 20 and 30 knots through the afternoon. The mentioned
surface low will cross the Great Lakes, with the associated
front will bring showers across the region starting as early as
noon at western ports, and persist through much of the
afternoon. Cigs will drop this afternoon and into the evening
with FROPA.

Behind the front during the overnight, expect some lingering
moisture behind the front tonight will result in lake effect
showers over the area into the overnight. The shower potential
will decrease after 06Z tonight with some clearing occurring. As
well, expect at least MVFR cigs overnight to account for the
stratocumulus moving through behind the front. Some IFR and
below are definitely possible.

Outlook...
Winds and precipitation chances decrease on Saturday, but the
reprieve will be brief as both are forecast to return Sunday
into early next week (along with the potential for our first
wintry precipitation of the season) as a series of additional
weather systems are forecast to impact the area.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Shallenberger/88