281
FXUS61 KPBZ 061116
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
716 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered east of the coast will maintain dry and
warm conditions today. A passing cold front returns rain on
Tuesday, followed by dry and cooler conditions the remainder of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and warm
----------------------------------------------------------------

Mostly sunny skies expected again as ridging remains the
dominant feature. With minimal change to heights/thickness
values, temperatures will be very similar to what was observed
Sunday, between 10 to 15 degrees above normal. As the ridge
axis shifts east some mid-level clouds should develop later in
the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues this with increasing clouds
- Rain chances begin to increase mainly after midnight
- A soaking rain appears likely Tuesday afternoon and night
----------------------------------------------------------------

Clouds will continue to increase tonight as the mentioned ridge
axis continues to move east and moisture advection increases.
Low temperatures overnight will be particularly mild with the
increased cloud cover, with some locations not dipping below
the lower 60s. Some light rain is possible prior to sunrise
across western zones, before more widespread (and moderate times)
rain develops late morning and persists through the afternoon
and into the evening. PWAT values will be over 1.5", which is
above the 90th percentile for this time of year.

NBM runs continue to show probabilities of 0.50" or higher
from 75 to 90 percent, with 1" or more coming in at 30-50
percent. These amounts will still not a drought-buster, but this
will certainly be helpful. Locally higher totals than an inch
will certainly be possible in any convective elements. Flooding
is not considered to be a major threat with the dry antecedent
conditions and low stream/river levels, but isolated instances
may be possible in urbanized or poor drainage areas (clogged
drains/culverts from falling leaves in particular). WPC has the
entire forecast area under a Marginal Risk for flooding on
Tuesday. Some rumbles of thunder are possible during the day
in very modest instability, but poor lapse rates/dynamics and
the lack of surface heating should render severe weather a non-
existent threat. Temperatures should be suppressed to just a few
degrees above normal Tuesday/Tuesday night ahead of FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather returns Wednesday with gusty wind
- Temperatures fall to normal/below normal.
- Dry weather most likely Friday into the weekend, but pattern
  uncertainty increases
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles have been trending a touch faster with the boundary,
kicking it out early enough to end precipitation across most areas
by 12Z Wednesday and to provide a mostly sunny sky by afternoon.
Still, a morning shower or two in the northern WV ridges cannot be
ruled out. The cooler air mass will provide temperatures right
around seasonal norms. Northwest wind behind the front should be
gusty behind the front given good mixing and a tightening pressure
gradient. The NBM suggests maximum gusts in the 25 to 30 MPH range
for most of the region.

Flow aloft transitions to a zonal pattern in the wake of the
departing shortwave trough, with surface high pressure traversing
the Great Lakes into the northeast CONUS. This should keep
conditions dry through Thursday night. Low temperatures below
climatology are indicated for Wednesday night, and the sky will
remain clear, but it is questionable whether the surface pressure
gradient relaxes enough to allow for nearly calm wind and good
radiational cooling. This could limit frost potential Thursday
morning, even though some areas could drop into the mid 30s north of
US-422. Temperatures closer to normal are likely for Thursday and
Thursday night, with increasing high cover during the latter period.

Uncertainty in the flow pattern begins to increase Friday and
through the weekend. The majority of ensemble cluster members seem
to favor baggy troughing over the eastern CONUS, with a minority
showing notably higher 500mb heights. The differences magnify for
Saturday and Sunday, as trough/ridge positioning and strength vary.
Overall, most solutions do not seem to favor notable surface systems
that would provide much in the way of precipitation, so a mostly dry
forecast will be maintained for now, in line with NBM suggestions.
Temperatures near or slightly above climatology for this
period currently appear to be the most likely outcome.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will continue through the day today under high pressure
centered off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. SW flow on the western
side of the high should result in some moisture return across OH
this afternoon, where scattered cumulus/stratocu is expected.
Otherwise, expect an increase in mid level clouds, mainly this
evening, ahead of an approaching cold front.

Restrictions will begin to creep into the area from the west at
the end of the current TAF period as showers arrive. Profiles
suggest still very limited moisture in the lower levels, so it`s
likely that ceilings take a bit to come down as the column
fully saturates, and we may see high end MVFR vis restrictions
in rain with still VFR cigs initially. Have held off on the
introduction of MVFR at all sites for this update, but
probabilities spike later on Tuesday morning and IFR conditions
are probable come later Tuesday afternoon and especially evening
hours.

.OUTLOOK...
VFR is expected to gradually return Wednesday after FROPA, and
continue through Friday, as high pressure builds in.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...WM/MLB