399
FXUS61 KPBZ 130040
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
840 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm brings a few showers over the ridges Monday.
Dry and warm conditions expected Tuesday with a building ridge.
Cooler Canadian high pressure settles in during the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Slow decrease in clouds tonight
- Temperatures a few degrees above normal
---------------------------------------------------------------

Plenty of stratocumulus/altocumulus continue to stream into the
region on easterly flow off of a coastal low. Earlier
sprinkles/light rain showers are now limited to portions of
eastern Ohio and should dissipate this evening. Expect a slow
downward trend in cloud cover through the night as well as the
low moves up the coast. Overnight temperatures are largely
expected to be a few degrees above average; any locally colder
spots will be those that clear out and can see the winds go
calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Drier conditions expected much of Monday and Tuesday
- Temperatures to rise Monday and Tuesday
----------------------------------------------------------------

As the coastal low moves further up the east coast, the moisture
transport into our region will grow weaker and weaker. As such POPs
across the region peak in the eastern most ridges near 20-30% but
much of the area is expected to remain largely dry Monday. Heights
rise subtly through the day Monday as the upper low is shunted
eastward, this and lessening cloud cover, especially west, will help
to boost high temperatures a few degrees region wide.

The high confidence central CONUS ridge moves a little east Tuesday
pushing heights even higher continuing our dry and warmer trend.
This trend looks to come to an end Tuesday night as an upper trough
and SFC cold front approach the region from the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- The potential for frost/freeze conditions increase Wednesday
  and Thursday night
- Above average temperatures return over the weekend

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long-range ensemble guidance continues to indicate a troughing
pattern developing over the Great Lakes from late Wednesday
through early Friday. Northerly to northwesterly flow will usher
cooler air into eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. If skies
clear overnight, temperatures could drop into the mid to low 30s
during this period. With the growing season still ongoing, frost
or freeze headlines may be necessary midweek. Friday morning
appears most favorable for the coldest temperatures of the week,
with probabilities of at or below 32 degrees exceeding 50% north
of Pittsburgh.

As a trough over the western U.S. progresses eastward, a ridge
will build into the region by midday Friday and persist through
Sunday. This will bring a return to warmer-than-average
temperatures and generally dry conditions through late Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overnight, models show the possibility for another drop to MVFR CIGs
with a low probability for IFR CIGs. Just like today, there will be
a sharp east/west cutoff. The highest chance for these restriction
are nearest to the Appalachian ridges (DUJ/LBE/MGW). This looks to
set in as we lose our easterly downslope component due to movement
of the coastal low.

By tomorrow morning, the wind will shift out of the northeast with
the coastal low weakening and broadening offshore the east coast. By
the afternoon, the wind will become more northerly as terminals with
the ceiling restrictions will gradually lift. By the evening, the
coastal low will move out to sea as the ridge builds into the
region.


.OUTLOOK...
High pressure will minimize restriction potential until
precipitation chances return late next weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Lupo