


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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399 FXUS61 KPBZ 130040 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 840 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal storm brings a few showers over the ridges Monday. Dry and warm conditions expected Tuesday with a building ridge. Cooler Canadian high pressure settles in during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Slow decrease in clouds tonight - Temperatures a few degrees above normal --------------------------------------------------------------- Plenty of stratocumulus/altocumulus continue to stream into the region on easterly flow off of a coastal low. Earlier sprinkles/light rain showers are now limited to portions of eastern Ohio and should dissipate this evening. Expect a slow downward trend in cloud cover through the night as well as the low moves up the coast. Overnight temperatures are largely expected to be a few degrees above average; any locally colder spots will be those that clear out and can see the winds go calm. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Drier conditions expected much of Monday and Tuesday - Temperatures to rise Monday and Tuesday ---------------------------------------------------------------- As the coastal low moves further up the east coast, the moisture transport into our region will grow weaker and weaker. As such POPs across the region peak in the eastern most ridges near 20-30% but much of the area is expected to remain largely dry Monday. Heights rise subtly through the day Monday as the upper low is shunted eastward, this and lessening cloud cover, especially west, will help to boost high temperatures a few degrees region wide. The high confidence central CONUS ridge moves a little east Tuesday pushing heights even higher continuing our dry and warmer trend. This trend looks to come to an end Tuesday night as an upper trough and SFC cold front approach the region from the northwest. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - The potential for frost/freeze conditions increase Wednesday and Thursday night - Above average temperatures return over the weekend ------------------------------------------------------------------- Long-range ensemble guidance continues to indicate a troughing pattern developing over the Great Lakes from late Wednesday through early Friday. Northerly to northwesterly flow will usher cooler air into eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. If skies clear overnight, temperatures could drop into the mid to low 30s during this period. With the growing season still ongoing, frost or freeze headlines may be necessary midweek. Friday morning appears most favorable for the coldest temperatures of the week, with probabilities of at or below 32 degrees exceeding 50% north of Pittsburgh. As a trough over the western U.S. progresses eastward, a ridge will build into the region by midday Friday and persist through Sunday. This will bring a return to warmer-than-average temperatures and generally dry conditions through late Saturday. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overnight, models show the possibility for another drop to MVFR CIGs with a low probability for IFR CIGs. Just like today, there will be a sharp east/west cutoff. The highest chance for these restriction are nearest to the Appalachian ridges (DUJ/LBE/MGW). This looks to set in as we lose our easterly downslope component due to movement of the coastal low. By tomorrow morning, the wind will shift out of the northeast with the coastal low weakening and broadening offshore the east coast. By the afternoon, the wind will become more northerly as terminals with the ceiling restrictions will gradually lift. By the evening, the coastal low will move out to sea as the ridge builds into the region. .OUTLOOK... High pressure will minimize restriction potential until precipitation chances return late next weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AK NEAR TERM...CL SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...Lupo