932
FXUS61 KPBZ 121722
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
122 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm brings passing showers today lingering over the
ridges into Monday. Dry and warm conditions expected Tuesday
with a building ridge. Cooler Canadian high pressure settles in
during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light shower activity, mainly east of Pittsburgh
- Temperatures a few degrees above normal
- Coastal low may bring rain showers into portions of the region
Sunday into Sunday night
---------------------------------------------------------------

A coastal low is slowly riding northward up the Eastern Seaboard.
Northeast winds continue to transport Atlantic moisture into eastern
and central Pennsylvania with increasing low-level clouds being the
most noticeable impact for our region. Light showers are riding into
the region along this flow but rainfall totals are expected to be
very light owing to muted moisture, a dry lower boundary layer and a
downsloping easterly component to the wind.

A tightening pressure gradient along the Laurel Highlands and West
Virginia ridges has led to some gustier conditions across the region
today, especially in the eastern ridges where gusts are between 20-
25mph.

Increased cloud cover today will likely keep a lid on high
temperatures but they can still be a couple degrees above average
for this time of year. Overnight temperatures are largely expected
to be above average, any locally colder spots will be those that
clear out and can see the winds go calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Drier conditions expected much of Monday and Tuesday
- Temperatures to rise Monday and Tuesday
----------------------------------------------------------------

As the coastal low moves further up the east coast, the moisture
transport into our region will grow weaker and weaker. As such POPs
across the region peak in the eastern most ridges near 20-30% but
much of the area is expected to remain largely dry Monday. Heights
rise subtly through the day Monday as the upper low is shunted
eastward, this and lessening cloud cover, especially west, will help
to boost high temperatures a few degrees region wide.

The high confidence central CONUS ridge moves a little east Tuesday
pushing heights even higher continuing our dry and warmer trend.
This trend looks to come to an end Tuesday night as an upper trough
and SFC cold front approach the region from the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- The potential for frost/freeze conditions increase Wednesday
  and Thursday night
- Above average temperatures return over the weekend

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long-range ensemble guidance continues to indicate a troughing
pattern developing over the Great Lakes from late Wednesday
through early Friday. Northerly to northwesterly flow will usher
cooler air into eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. If skies
clear overnight, temperatures could drop into the mid to low 30s
during this period. With the growing season still ongoing, frost
or freeze headlines may be necessary midweek. Friday morning
appears most favorable for the coldest temperatures of the week,
with probabilities of at or below 32 degrees exceeding 50% north
of Pittsburgh.

As a trough over the western U.S. progresses eastward, a ridge
will build into the region by midday Friday and persist through
Sunday. This will bring a return to warmer-than-average
temperatures and generally dry conditions through late Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The first wave of showers have largely petered out at this time and
we are left with several flavors of MVFR and VFR across the region.
As expected, CIGs have begun to lift out and mix a little this
afternoon and this trend is expected to continue with all ports
expected to return to VFR by this evening (MVFR probs fall to <20%
at all ports by 21z).

Gusty easterly winds have been intermittent across the region today
with the most persistent being closest to the terrain.

Models hint at another possible drop down to MVFR and possibly IFR
CIGs overnight tonight with a sharp east/west cutoff. These chances
are highest nearest the terrain for DUJ/LBE/MGW and look to set in
as we possibly lose our easterly downslope component overnight due
to movement of the coastal low.


.OUTLOOK...
High pressure will build back into the region by midweek,
minimizing restriction potential until precipitation chances
return late next weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...AK