127
FXUS61 KPBZ 141152
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
652 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building over the Upper Ohio River Valley will
bring quiet weather today into tonight. Fast moving low pressure
crossing the Great Lakes tomorrow will bring increasing warmth
and moisture along with the chance of showers and gusty
thunderstorms. Brisk and cooler weather is on tap for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet weather under high pressure with seasonable temps today
---------------------------------------------------------------

1022 mb surface high over east TN has ridge extending north into
Ohio currently. This ridge will move over forecast area this
morning and linger into the afternoon hours. It will be dry but
some warm advection clouds over MI and OH are expected to cross
the area this morning and early afternoon. They won`t prevent
highs from reaching the lower 50s which is normal for the middle
of November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain returns by Saturday as storm chances loom
----------------------------------------------------------------

Low pressure over northwest Ontario should spread east overnight
and reach eastern Lake Superior by Saturday morning. Southwest
winds in the warm sector should extend the length of the Ohio
Valley tonight, so many locations will see evening low
temperatures will a good bet for rising temperatures after
midnight. Dew point should rise into the lower 50s before
sunrise in Ohio with middle 50s quickly racing into the entire
area during Saturday morning.

The low will deepen below 990 mb Saturday afternoon as moves
toward SW Quebec and also pushes a cold front into Ohio. Wind
fields are seasonably strong and resulting in plenty of shear
for severe thunderstorms. Soundings indicate marginal
instability with CAPE values in the 100-500 j/kg range so gusty
winds are possible and the Storm Prediction Center is
maintaining a marginal risk for most of the forecast area.

NBM 25th percentile 24 hour QPF for Sat/Sat Night is 0.10-0.20"
for much of area, with lower amounts in Ohio. 75th percentile is
0.20 to 0.50" with heavier values over the eastern half.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
- Breezy conditions Sunday into Monday
- Potential for isolated lake-enhanced snow showers near I-80
  early Monday
- Precipitation potential increases Tuesday into Wednesday;
  wintry mix possible
-------------------------------------------------------------------

West to northwest flow and strong cold advection will bring
cooler whether and brisk winds that should gust to about 30 mph
in most locations and 45 to 55 mph over the higher ridges of
eastern Tucker County WV.

AI GEFS shows mean 850 mb temps falling to about -5C along I-80
by Sunday evening and eventually -7C by Monday morning. Deep
northwest flow favors Lake Effect Snow showers and NBM 90th
percentile values are in the 1.5 to 2.5" range in the far
northern portions of Venango and Forest Counties.

Ensemble guidance indicates upper low currently forming off
California will get kicked into the central Plains by Monday and
then weaken as it enters confluent flow aloft around Tuesday in
the Ohio and Tennessee Valley area. The bulk of the weakening
shield of precipitation would likely stay to the south of
forecast area. However any precipitation along the northern edge
has the potential to be wintry so we will being keeping an eye
on that system.

Wednesday is likely to be quiet under high pressure, but yet
another upper trough coming out of the four corners area is
possible and could develop a low in the lower Mississippi
Valley by Thursday. Ensembles indicate deep and moist southwest
flow and potential for warm advection precipitation spreading
up the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the bulk of the TAF period.
Mid-level clouds will cross this morning with a disturbance
aloft and warm advection in northwest flow. Lower levels remain
fairly dry overall today. Ceilings above 8kft are forecast. With
a weaker pressure gradient as compared to yesterday, southwest
wind is only forecast to reach the 10 to 15 knot range in gusts.

A brief period of partial clearing is expected during the late
afternoon and evening hours, before clouds thicken and lower
tonight with an approaching warm front. A few, non-restrictive
light rain showers may begin to arrive after 06Z. Probabilities
of MVFR ceilings begin to spike above 80 percent after 09Z or
so, mainly south of I-70, before overspreading other terminals
during the rest of the morning.


Outlook...
Restrictions should become more widespread as Saturday
progresses, with better chance for showers and elevated wind
gusts Saturday afternoon and evening along a cold front. Lake-
enhanced precipitation is expected behind the front on Sunday
with the typical scattered nature.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Craven
NEAR TERM...Craven
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Craven
AVIATION...CL