554
FXUS61 KPBZ 181221
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
721 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing system may produce a brief period of wintry mix or
snow early this morning in eastern Ohio before transitioning to
rain in the afternoon and evening. Milder conditions are
expected toward the end of the week with returning rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Potential for hazardous travel early Tuesday with mixed
  precipitation chances
- Rain chances increase early afternoon Tuesday; heavier
  amounts expected south of I-70
----------------------------------------------------------------

A disturbance moving across the Midwest, spurred on by an upper
level low trucking across the Plains, continues eastward early
this morning. At the time of this writing precipitation remains
back across Indiana with a tongue of virga spurred by WAA
further east into Ohio.

POPs across our region increase first in eastern Ohio near
sunrise. Plenty of dry air at the SFC limits initial intensity
as the falling precipitation works to saturate the column.
Soundings largely support wet bulbing leading to frozen
precipitation at onset. At this time, the favored p-type at
onset looks to be snow or sleet with minimal chance to melt
before it reaches a SFC below freezing. However, models
sometimes underestimate WAA and there exists a chance to see
light instances of freezing rain. These chances are highest in
eastern Ohio largely south of I-70 between about 6-9 AM before
SFC temperatures warm and precipitation turns over to rain. At
any rate there exists a chance to see isolated icy spots during
the morning commute in eastern Ohio.

For now, given the lingering uncertainty and the slightly
higher potential for sleet as opposed to freezing rain, we favor
the issuance of a Special Weather Statement for the morning
commute. We cannot rule out the need for a Winter Weather
Advisory if precipitation arrives earlier or WAA is truly
underestimated, leading to more freezing rain.

The ridges of PA and WV also could see isolated instances of
mixed precipitation at onset, but delayed start times closer to
mid-to- late morning look to limit this window and thus impacts.


Closer to Pittsburgh and on north and east, precipitation is
favored to begin as a push of heavy wet snow if precipitation
begins in the mid morning hours. Snowfall accumulations would be
very light and wouldn`t stick around long as precipitation
changes quickly to and continues as rain. If precipitation is
slower to come in and cannot fully fight through the dry air at
the SFC, then precipitation could be entirely rain from the
onset. Latest hi-res models and soundings lean towards this
second scenario.

Rainfall amounts will vary widely, increasing from north to
south. Up along the I-80 corridor places may be lucky to scrape
a few hundredths together. Closer to the latitude of Pittsburgh
totals are largely between 0.25-0.50 inches. The highest totals
reside south of I-70, where between 0.50-0.80 inches could fall
in the lowlands and a persistent upslope could see totals near
the 1 inch mark in the ridges of WV.

POPs wind down quickly overnight Tuesday as the system exits as
quickly as it came.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quieter weather
- Temperatures to moderate back towards normal
----------------------------------------------------------------

Subtle height rises begin early Wednesday morning and favor a
return to drier and calmer weather with moderating temperatures.
A shortwave could move through the flow and squash these rising
heights by Wednesday night promoting low-end rain chances,
mostly in the PA and WV ridges. POPs fall during the daylight
hours of Thursday as temperatures return to normal values.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures into next weekend
- Rain chances rise again late week with another passing
  disturbance likely
- Possible dry conditions on Sunday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

An upper trough and possibly closed low look to drop from the
Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes by Thursday night. There
remains differences in the ensembles in terms of depth and
speed. Clustered ensembles seem to favor a possibly more shallow
trough promoting a quicker eastward speed through the forecast
region. A faster trough passing would lean towards lower
rainfall totals across the region. Either way, rain chances look
to rise Thursday night as a warm front advances through the
region. WAA spurs high temperatures on Friday 5-10 degrees above
average. The associated cold front looks to cross the region
Friday/Friday night triggering a northwest flow regime that
could keep POPs elevated through Saturday due to lake enhanced
showers. Despite cold FROPA, temperatures are expected to remain
near normal keeping any lake enhanced showers rain.

A drier trend could prevail later on Sunday as subtle height
rises are favored. This could be a brief dry spell as ensembles
seem to hint at upper troughing advancing towards the region by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will be maintained through much of the morning as upper
ridging continues to transition east over and across the
region. A passing low pressure system just to our south will
return precip later this morning, and some may be in the form of
a wintry mix at onset.

Precip shield should reach ZZV after 13z this morning and slowly
work east only reaching PIT likely after 16z. A very dry sub-
cloud layer will need to be saturated before steadier precip
reaches the surface. This will also allow for wet-bulbing and
cooling in the lower levels at onset which could provide a brief
window for a wintry mix at ZZV, FKL, and DUJ where surface
wet bulb temperatures are at or below freezing and below an
elevated warm nose. Modeled profiles at ZZV suggest that some
snow/sleet could mix in at onset at ZZV with a rain/snow mix
more favored for FKL/DUJ owing to a weaker warm nose and less
chance for melting. Have mentioned a rain/snow mix at PIT owing
to some uncertainty as to how quickly surface temperatures will
warm this morning as they`re running below model guidance so
far, but think that all other terminals including PIT will
see predominantly rain.

The biggest impact to terminals looks to be vis restrictions at
first as the column saturates top down. Cigs will gradually
lower to MVFR this afternoon with increased probability after
20z for most sites. By later this evening, probabilities then
spike for <1kft cigs to 60-90% areawide. Precipitation should
wind down later in the evening as the low quickly exits. Will
still likely see IFR conditions (more likely in the form of cig
but vis could remain degraded as well) continuing overnight
with a saturated surface layer and little dry air intrusion to
speak of.

Outlook...
Periodic restrictions and precipitation are
expected through next weekend as the area remains within a
relatively active weather pattern.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...MLB/88