087
FXUS61 KPBZ 100720
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
220 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather through the weekend will bring rounds of
snow, occasionally mixed with rain, as well as fluctuating
temperature and gusty winds. Overall, snowfall accumulations
favor areas north of Interstate 80 and the ridges of southwest
Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A passing disturbance brings a mix of rain and snow to the
  area today. Accumulating snow will be focused in the ridges
  and along the I-80 corridor where various winter headlines
  have been issued
- Strong wind gusts today up to 45 mph (55 mph in the ridges of
  eastern Tucker County, WV)
---------------------------------------------------------------

A trough and associated surface low dive across the Great Lakes
today before pivoting to the northeast just north of Lake Erie
and departing the area tonight. A mix of rain and snow has
already started across eastern Ohio and will continue to spread
eastward across the rest of the area through this morning. The
best chance for impactful snowfall accumulations with this early
morning wave will be along and north of I-80 where roughly 3 to
5 inches (locally up to 6 inches) of heavy, wet snow are
expected to impact the morning commute. As a result, the Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect for Mercer, Venango, Forest,
Clarion, and Jefferson Counties until 10 PM this evening.

In southwest PA and northern WV ridges, a brief period of
rain/snow mix this morning will transition to all snow later today
that lingers through tonight. Snowfall accumulations in the
lower ridges of western Preston/Tucker counties in WV and in the
SW PA ridges are expected to hover around 3 to 5 inches. A
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for these areas
through Thursday morning. Meanwhile, in the higher ridges of
eastern Preston and Tucker counties in WV, snowfall amounts up
to 6 to 8 inches will be possible which, combined with a long
duration of winds gusting to 50-60 mph, supports a continuance
of the Blizzard Warning in those areas through Thursday morning.

Where the most tricky part of the forecast comes in is actually for
the lower elevations of eastern OH and southwestern PA. Most
thermal profiles in model soundings are below freezing save the
lowest few hundred feet where surface temperatures sit slightly
above freezing. Should this be the case, a wet and cold
rain/snow mix will be the result with little resulting
accumulations. However, if surface temps trend colder than
guidance, there is a conditional threat for a thump of heavy,
wet snow to impact a good portion of southwest Pennsylvania,
eastern Ohio, and the panhandle of West Virginia in the early
morning to early afternoon hours. This is very much a low
probability, high impact scenario as the worst case scenario
could be a quick 1-3 inches of heavy, wet snow accumulation
with impacts to the morning commute. We will continue to closely
monitor incoming guidance and latest surface/radar observations,
and consider headline issuances/expansions should conditions
trend in that direction.

By evening, a cold front advances through the area, bringing
cold air advection and a shift to northwest flow. While this
should end the widespread precipitation threat, it marks the
onset of a convective snow shower threat mainly north of
Pittsburgh and in the ridges where lake-enhancement and upslope
forcing, respectively, will allow snow to linger tonight.

In addition to impacts caused by wintry precipitation, tight
surface gradients will foster gusty wind between 30-40 mph in
the afternoon in the lower elevations, with 40-50 mph gusts
possible in the ridges and peak gusts as high as 60 mph possible
in the highest ridges of eastern Tucker County, WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Transition to lingering upslope and lake-effect snow Thursday
- Two more quick-hitting disturbances bring snow potential to
  areas south of I-70 late Thursday night into Friday morning,
  and then to the I-80 corridor and ridges Friday night
- Temperatures well below average
----------------------------------------------------------------

With the Wednesday low pressure system having departed the area
to the northeast, Thursday will see post-frontal northwest flow
with lake-effect snow showers/banding possible through the day.
The best chance for additional accumulations will be along and
north of I-80 where these bands could locally add another couple
inches to the snowpack. That said, confidence at this time in
the details regarding locations and amounts is low. The Winter
Weather Advisories up there are currently set to expire at 10 PM
this evening, but if lake effect bands are ongoing and CAMs
trend towards notable additional accumulations into Thursday, an
extension may be needed. Elsewhere across the area, it will be
cold and dry with highs struggling to top 30 degrees and a
brisk westerly wind.

The active pattern continues through the end of the work week as
guidance points toward two more quick-hitting mid-level
shortwave troughs impacting the region overnight Thursday into
Friday and then again overnight Friday into early Saturday. The
first wave is currently projected to dive south of the local
area, bringing precipitation mainly to areas along and south of
I-70. With cold air already entrenched across the region,
precipitation type is likely to be all snow. At this time,
roughly 1 to 3 inches of additional snowfall appear possible
south of I-70, with higher amounts to 3 to 5 inches possible in
the Laurels and northern WV ridges.

The second wave moves over the Great Lakes after sunset Friday
evening. The orientation of this second wave appears to mostly
favor a redevelopment of lake-effect snow showers/banding north
of Pittsburgh and upslope-forced snow showers along the ridges.
Any additional accumulations with this second wave appear light.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Another chance for snow Saturday into Sunday before a brief
  period of dry weather returns Monday into Tuesday
- Temperatures remain well below average this weekend into
  early next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The unsettled pattern continues into the weekend as mid-level
troughing plagues the ECONUS. Yet another shortwave embedded
within the broader trough brings a round of snow to the area
late in the day Saturday. There is still significant uncertainty
regarding how much accumulation that system brings, but what
guidance does appear to agree on is that it serves as a potable
reinforcing shot of cold air. Confidence is increasing in a
several day period where we have high temperatures some 15-20
degrees below average in a cP airmass. Lows Saturday night
through Monday night range from teens to single digits, while
high temps on Sunday barely climb into the low 20s in some spots
and mid 20s on Monday. Luckily, precipitation potential appears
to taper off as we head into early next week with guidance
suggesting weak height rises occur Monday and Tuesday as a weak
ridge builds into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Restrictions developing at FKL and DUJ in snow overnight
- Widespread restrictions with rain and snow Wednesday
- Increasing wind tonight and Wednesday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Deterioration to MVFR, and eventually IFR, is expected as rain and
snow overspread the region this morning with the initial warm
frontal passage. Airports north of a ZZV-PIT-LBE line should see all
snow, with a mix of rain and snow to the south. Model soundings are
marginal for a mix in the vicinity of PIT, where -SNRA was included
in the TAF to indicate predominantly snow. Temperatures will be
marginal for accumulation in the PIT vicinity (upper 30s/around
40F), however, if snow does occur at a brief heavy rate, some
accumulation is possible. The low will continue to track NE`ward,
pulling a cold front across the region from mid-afternoon to early
evening. Any mix will change to all snow in cold advection after
FROPA.

South-southwesterly wind will continue to increase tonight and
Wednesday with a crossing low level jet, mixing and a tightening
pressure gradient associated with the low. There will be a westerly
wind shift after FROPA. Wind speeds will slightly ease Wednesday
evening, however, it will remain breezy through the day on Thursday.

Outlook...
Ceiling restrictions and scattered snow showers are
likely Thursday under a crossing upper trough and cold NW flow.
Another period of restrictions are possible Thursday night and
Friday with crossing low pressure. The restriction potential
continues Saturday and Sunday with another crossing low, and
subsequent cold NW flow and upper troughing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for PAZ074-076-078.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for WVZ511-513.
     Blizzard Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Thursday
     for WVZ512-514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak
NEAR TERM...Cermak
SHORT TERM...Cermak
LONG TERM...Cermak
AVIATION...LL