474
FXUS61 KPBZ 081131
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
731 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cooler conditions can be expected today and into the
upcoming weekend behind a departing cold front and with
developing high pressure. A low risk of isolated showers exists
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Remaining clouds departing this morning, with a mostly sunny
  afternoon
- Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions today
---------------------------------------------------------------

The cold front has largely exited the region, taking rain
showers with it. A stratocumulus deck over the ridges southeast
of Pittsburgh will move east/dissipate by late morning as drier
air and subsidence take control. Still, enough moisture remains
to support a scattered diurnal cumulus deck. As mixing
increases and low- level lapse rates steepen, northwest wind
gusts are forecast to reach the 20 to 25 MPH range during the
afternoon.An increased pressure gradient today will be
sufficient for gusts between 20mph and 25mph across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Overnight lows may result in morning frost or freezing
  conditions
----------------------------------------------------------------

Winds will lessen this evening as surface winds decouple and the
pressure gradient weakens as the high center nears from
northwest of the local area. This along with limited cloud
coverage will allow for efficient radiational cooling into
Thursday morning, and a Frost Advisory has been issued for
location north and east of Pittsburgh, mostly north of route
422.

Dry and cooler temperatures continue Thursday as the mentioned
high continues to transition east and large scale subsidence
limits cloud development. Even though there will be a light
downslope (warming) easterly wind Thursday night/Friday morning
morning, low temperatures are forecast to remain below normal.
Latest guidance shows 50-75% chance of hitting 32F or lower
north of route 422 (roughly), and a 20-30% chance of 32F or
farther to the south into SW PA and the ridges of northern WV.
A Freeze Watch has been issued for the same areas mentioned
above, and areas to the south could potentially need a Frost
Advisory as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather favored through the weekend
- Pattern variability exists at the start of next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Surface high pressure positioned over New England Friday will
shift northeast during the weekend. Friday will remain dry, but
the is a slight chance of precipitation introduced later on
Saturday as low pressure drops down out of Canada and over the
Great Lakes. Concurrently, low pressure is progged to deepen and
ride up the Atlantic coast, sandwiching the area between both
features. This brings a higher than normal uncertainty in the
forecast from there on out, and have just went with straight NBM
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front has cleared the ridges as of 12Z, taking rain
with it. MVFR ceilings will linger for an hour or two at LBE and
MGW before subsidence and increased mixing erode them. VFR
conditions are then forecast for the balance of the TAF period.
A diurnal, scattered cumulus layer will develop by late
morning/midday and then persist until sunset. These clouds would
then collapse, with a mostly clear overnight period. Despite the
recent rain, a much drier airmass, today`s gusty wind, and
possible light mixing overnight should preclude anything more
than very isolated valley fog.

Those gusty winds will be fostered by a tightening pressure
gradient and deepening mixing behind the front. Northwest gusts
to around 20 knots can be expected by late morning and will
persist through the afternoon. Wind should subside after sunset
as the pressure gradient begins to relax, but a light northerly
light may persist through much of the night.


.OUTLOOK...
Other than early morning river valley fog, VFR is expected
through Saturday under high pressure. A low potential for
restrictions returns Saturday night and Sunday with a crossing
upper trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-073>078.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for PAZ007>009-013>016-022-073>078.
OH...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ510>514.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ510>514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88/Lupo
AVIATION...CL