583
FXUS61 KPBZ 261146
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
646 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will bring showers and gusty wind to the
region today. Much colder air, continued gusty wind, and snow
showers are expected for portions of the area tonight through
Friday. The most impactful snow is expected along and north of
Interstate 80, where enhancement off of Lake Erie will result in
localized snow bands. Dry weather returns Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Strong cold front crosses with showers and gusty wind

---------------------------------------------------------------

A vertically stacked low was located across the Upper Midwest,
with a cold front extending to the south. The low will track
across the Upper Great lakes region today, pulling the surface
cold front across the area. The latest CAMS indicate FROPA in
the morning across Ohio, and from late morning through early
afternoon for the remainder of the region.

An increasing wind field with a jet aloft will also overspread
the region today. Instability is progged to be minimal
along/ahead of the front, with MU CAPE <100 j/kg. Even with this
minimal CAPE, a steepening lapse rate, and mixing with the
showers, could result in some brief gusts from 40 to 50 mph
with some of the showers along the front today.

Strong pressure rises behind the front, combined with mixing,
should result in wind gusts persisting from 30 to 40 mph through
the rest of the day after FROPA. The latest HREF and NBM
probabilities indicate the potential for wind advisory gusts
are generally 10-30 percent or less.

High temperatures will occur ahead of the front today, with
readings falling into the upper 30s-lower 40s by this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Wind advisory through at least Thursday for the higher
  terrain
- Winter Weather Advisory Thursday and Friday north of I-80
- Lake enhanced snow bands developing north of I-80 later
  Thursday into Friday
- Much colder with scattered snow showers south of I-80

----------------------------------------------------------------

The low is progged to be located over the Great Lakes/Ontario
region tonight. A vort max rotating around the low should result
in scattered snow showers, mainly for areas north of PIT and in
the ridges. Analysis of the model progged boundary layer
streamlines indicate the flow should remain SW tonight, keeping
lake enhancement north of our forecast area. Gusty wind
(30-40mph) will continue with a tight pressure gradient behind
the front, and mixing with a strong wind field aloft. The
exception will be in the ridges, where gusts from 45 to 55 mph
are expected. A Wind Advisory has been issued for this area from
this evening through early Thursday afternoon. The highest
gusts will be across the highest terrain in eastern Tucker
county WV, where the advisory may have to be extended into
Friday.

Snow showers are expected to increase in coverage on Thursday,
especially north of PIT, as an upper trough rotating around the
low begins to approach. At the same time, the boundary layer
flow is progged to veer to a WSW direction through the day.
Areas across northern Mercer, Venango, and Forest counties could
see some impact from a band of lake enhanced snow drifting
slightly southward. The Lake Erie water to 850 mb temperature
difference is expected to be around 19 deg C, with saturation
and a steep lapse rate in the dendritic growth region. Began a
Winter Weather Advisory for these counties Thursday morning,
with a potential travel impact.

The upper trough is expected to cross the lower Great Lakes and
Upper Ohio Valley region Thursday night. Scattered snow showers
are expected for much of the area, though a lack of saturation
in the dendritic layer should limit intensity. An upslope
component could also enhance some of the snow showers across the
ridges, though a westerly wind is not ideal for heavy snow. The
boundary layer flow is also progged to become more W or WNW
overnight, bringing some potential for lake enhanced snow
banding across the advisory area. There is a potential for
localized higher snowfall amounts in persistent banding. If this
potential occurs, and upgrade to a Lake Effect Snow Warning will
be possible mainly across northern portions of the advisory
area. Will monitor later trends and guidance. The advisory may
also need to be expanded to Clarion and Jefferson counties,
though this will depend on the mesoscale features that drive the
heavier snow bands.

The upper trough axis shifts east of the area on Friday, though
scattered lake enhanced snow showers are still expected for much
of the region. Areas north of I 80 could still be impacted by
localized snow banding. Surface high pressure begins to build in
from the west Friday night, as the boundary layer flow gradually
backs to the WSW, and inversion levels lower. This should
gradually end the snow showers from SW-NE through the night.

Cold temperatures are expected, with readings generally 10 to
15 degrees below average Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather returns Saturday
- Unsettled weather returns Sunday into next week

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Shortwave ridging, between the departing trough to our east, and
another approaching trough across the Plains, will result in
dry weather on Saturday. The Plains trough will advance eastward
Sunday, as surface low pressure tracks across the western Great
Lakes. Expect mainly light snow at the onset as this trough
approaches, with warm advection changing the precip to rain
during the day. The surface low is progged to move across
Ontario, pulling a cold front through during the afternoon.

Rain/snow chances should taper off behind the front Sunday
night. Otherwise, another trough is expected to track out of
the Central CONUS and approaching the region on Tuesday.
Critical thicknesses and 850mb temperatures indicate the Upper
Ohio Valley region will be near the rain/snow line, so will
include both of these weather types in the forecast with the
uncertainty. After an initial warm up on Sunday, temperatures
are expected to remain below average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ahead of an approaching cold front, a mixed bag of VFR to MVFR
cigs with slowly increasing SW wind is expected to see more
uniform MVFR cig development as moisture converges prior to the
frontal passage.

The front and its narrow N/S oriented line of gusty showers
will cross ZZV at approximately 13z, reach HLG around 15z,
PIT/AGC around 16-17z, exiting the region shortly thereafter.
Any rain along the front should be brief and generally light,
but enhancement of area wind could create peak gusts to around
40kts.

Strong cold advection in the post-frontal environment favors
25-35kt WSW wind gusts and high MVFR to low VFR stratocu through
Thursday morning. Subtle shortwave repositioning aloft may
induce enough lift for a light snow shower after 00z; otherwise
area terminals are likely to remain dry.

Outlook...
Lake effect snow will encroach FKL/DUJ Thursday morning
depending on the angle of the 850mb wind, with a more likely
push of lake bands coming late Thursday night into Friday.

Height rises with surface high pressure should erode any
restriction/snow by Friday night before the next low pressure
system arrives Sunday morning.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday
     for PAZ007>009.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for
     PAZ074-076-078.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Frazier