603
FXUS66 KPDT 020520
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1020 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.AVIATION...

Gusty winds will become less common, but could still be
occasional behind the cold front through about The 3km RRFS shows
widely scattered elevated showers ending across the entirety of
the region by about 12z. Cannot rule out some fog and IFR/MVFR stratus
development in the foothills of the Blue Mts, potentially
encroaching on the vicinity of PSC toward 12-15z (about a 10-15%
chance based on HREF ensebles). Trend into Sunday is of VFR
conditions with partly cloudy sky, and weak westerly surface
winds. Current MVFR stratus at BND should dissipate gradually
overnight as winds back to to a southwesterly and downslope
trajectory. Russell/71

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025/

DISCUSSION...This afternoon through tonight...Satellite imagery
shows a frontal boundary moving slowly eastward across central and
eastern Oregon to eastern Washington this afternoon. Despite
significant inland-penetrating IVT of ahead of the front, little
precipitation has fallen to the lee of the Cascades due to an
environment characterized by warm temperatures, breezy winds, and
a dry sub-cloud layer. 12Z CAMs suggest the front will produce
noteworthy precipitation -- generally 0.25-1.25" -- across the
northern Blue Mountains and their immediate foothills/slopes as
it traverses the region this afternoon through tonight. Elsewhere,
lighter precipitation amounts of a trace to several hundredths
are forecast.

Of note, in areas where the morning inversion has eroded,
southwest winds of 15-35 mph accompanied by gusts of 35-55 mph
have mixed out the boundary layer resulting in abnormally warm
temperatures of 65-80 degrees across the lower elevations.
Additionally, wind advisories remain in effect through 11PM PDT
this evening for the aforementioned winds for much of central to
northeast Oregon and south-central to southeast Washington.

Looking ahead, mostly dry conditions are forecast Sunday into
Monday. Thereafter, significant uncertainty remains regarding
details of the weather pattern, but active fall weather will
likely (75% confidence) return later Monday through the remainder
of the week. Though periods of widespread precipitation are
forecast, snow levels are currently anticipated to remain high
enough to preclude any concern for winter weather advisories for
mountain passes; 48-hr probabilities of advisory-level snowfall
from the NBM peak at 10-40% for the Cascades for Wednesday through
Friday.

The other item worth noting is the potential for breezy to windy
conditions Tuesday night through Thursday. Clusters of ensemble
NWP members all depict some form of a 500-hPa trough or closed
low offshore through the period, and ensemble means and current
deterministic runs show a negatively tilted shortwave swinging
onshore Wednesday. This solution would result in breezy to windy
southerly to southeasterly winds across much of the region, with
highest probabilities (30-70%) of advisory-level wind gusts (45
mph or greater) across central to northeast Oregon with more
limited coverage in Washington.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  70  38  56  35 /  40  50   0   0
ALW  67  42  56  38 /  70  70   0   0
PSC  68  37  59  35 /  40  20   0   0
YKM  65  33  56  35 /  80  10   0   0
HRI  66  39  58  35 /  40  30   0   0
ELN  56  31  51  30 /  90  20   0   0
RDM  69  30  53  28 /  40  40   0   0
LGD  65  36  51  30 /  40  90   0   0
GCD  72  37  53  33 /  10  70   0   0
DLS  63  43  59  40 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ044-507-508.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...71