454
FXUS61 KPHI 151842
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
142 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The quick-hitting high pressure system affecting us today will
depart by tonight. This will allow a warm front, associated with
a clipper system moving into the Great Lakes, to lift into the
region. This clipper system will pass north of the region on
Sunday, dragging a cold front across our area. High pressure
will then build down into the Plains on Monday, and pass off the
Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Weak low pressure will affect
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Brief high pressure will
return for Thursday. A cold front is then forecast to move
through the region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure departing the area presently as clipper system
approaches from the northwest. This system will first drag a
warm front across the region, accompanied by some showers
especially in the north this evening, perhaps even enough
instability for an isolated thunderstorm. Another round of
showers possible (but less confident in) late in the night into
the early morning Sunday before the cold front arrives. Temps
will be steady much of the night, possibly even rising a bit
overnight as warm front moves through. Lows 40s north of Philly
and 50s from Philly south.

Cold front blasts its way thru Sunday morning with winds
shifting west-northwest and increasing considerably. As
mentioned, could be a stray shower lingering Sunday morning
ahead of the front, but *generally* a dry day - second caveat,
however, is that spotty rain and *snow* showers may rotate
southeastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening, especially in the Poconos where small accumulations
can`t be ruled out. The main story, however, is the wind, which
will howl after the front passes... sustained 15-25 mph with
gusts to 40, possibly 45. Think we stay below wind advisory,
but not by much. Highs 60s southern Delmarva, 50s most elsewhere
except 40s Poconos, but falling across the region during the
afternoon post-front.

Winds and spotty rain/snow shower chances fall Sunday night
(with snow shower chances lingering longest in the Poconos),
but remaining breezy and colder. Lows 20s Poconos, 30s most
everywhere else.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The main story for
Monday should be the winds. I say should, because we`ll still
need to keep an eye on any Lake Effect snow showers reaching the
southern Poconos. And that could become the bigger story. But
attm, the threat looks minimal.

So, west to northwest winds will remain quite noticeable on
Monday with gusts up to at least 25 mph. Highs will also be
noticeably cooler compared to Sunday topping out in the upper
30s across the far northwest to around 50 south. Many will be in
the 40s.

The winds will begin to chill on Monday night and will remain
on the lighter side into Tuesday as surface high pressure builds
across the region. Monday night lows will solidly be in the 30s
(20s north and west and in the NJ Pines). Highs on Tuesday will
mainly be in 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak low pressure will pass through the region Tuesday night
and/or early Wednesday. The timing will need to be shored up in
the days to come. While some wintry precip is possible for the
higher elevations of the southern Poconos and far northwest New
Jersey, rain will be the dominant p-type.

High pressure will then build down into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley on Thursday and move offshore on Friday. Another
storm system is expected to approach Friday or Saturday, but
there are also timing and placement inconsistencies with this
one as well. So for now, will follow the NBM and carry chance
PoPs (30 to 50 percent) between late Thursday night and
Saturday, but put the focus of 60% PoPs on Friday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough to support rain throughout with
this system.

Temperatures will likely be below normal to normal Wednesday
and Thursday, and rise to above normal levels Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thru 0Z...mainly VFR. Sub-VFR cigs/vsby could occur with any
advance showers, mainly across NW terminals (KABE/KRDG). Winds
mainly southerly 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Intervals of MVFR possible with passing showers, most
likely this evening, but another band of showers may pass later
tonight. An isolated thunderstorm possible but kept out of TAFs
for now. Winds south shifting southwest at 5-10 kts with a few
higher gusts possible. Southwesterly low-level wind shear will
also develop after 0Z and continue a fair portion of the night,
possibly reaching 50 kts. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...Generally VFR, but isolated showers could produce brief
instances of MVFR, most likely early, but also possibly later in
the day. Winds shifting west to west-northwest and increasing
considerably behind cold frontal passage during the morning,
with sustained 15-25 kts and gusts to 35 kts by afternoon.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday night...VFR. W-NW winds 15 to 20 kt
with gusts up to 30 kt, possibly up to 35 kts Monday,
diminishing to less than 10 kt Monday night.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...VFR Tuesday. Sub-VFR possible
Tuesday night in SHRA.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds increasing ahead of approaching low pressure
system will result in widespread Small Craft Advisory
conditions tonight into Sunday morning. Spotty showers and an
isolated thunderstorm also can`t be ruled out during this time.
Seas mainly 3-5 feet.

Strong cold front blasts offshore later in the morning Sunday
with gales taking over from late morning onward across all
waters. Gale Warning in effect all waters. Winds may gust to 40
kts with seas 4-7 feet.

Outlook...
Sunday night through Monday...The Gale Warning will continue
into Monday for Delaware Bay and the Atlantic coastal waters,
though winds may be sub-gale at times, especially across the
Bay. West to northwest winds will range from 20 to 30 kt with
35 kt gusts. Winds will begin to diminish Monday afternoon.

Monday night...Lingering Small Craft Advisory conditions,
diminishing late.

Tuesday through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The weather has turned dry again, and we are expecting some
strong gusty winds and low humidity on Sunday in the wake of the
cold front. Think RH`s stay above 30 percent, but just barely
across the Delmarva, and winds likely gust well in excess of 20
mph (likely 30-40 mph). Will coordinate with partners regarding
any need for special weather statements.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ430-431-450>455.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kruzdlo/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Kruzdlo
LONG TERM...Kruzdlo
AVIATION...Kruzdlo/RCM
MARINE...Kruzdlo/RCM
FIRE WEATHER...RCM