092
FXUS61 KPHI 150747
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
347 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure holds a dominate grasp over the region through the
weekend. A warm front lifts through Monday, but more surface high
pressure looks to control the region through at least the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A majority of the showers and storms have now moved offshore with
only a few isolated light showers along the immediate coast expected
to linger for the next few hours before moving out to sea as well.

With surface high pressure building in from the Great Lakes,
resultant N-NW flow will be ushering a cool, dry airmass in place to
start off the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures will only warm
into the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew points will start the day off in
the low 60s, but as we mix in drier air aloft during the afternoon,
we will see dew points drop into a very comfortable range of upper
40s and low 50s! Overall a fantastic and sunny Saturday in place
with a dry and cool Saturday night in store as well. Nighttime lows
will cool rather well, with 50s across much of the region. Higher
elevations across the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northern New
Jersey could drop into the upper 40s while the urban corridor will
likely stay in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will look be centered over the northeastern
CONUS for Sunday. With time, this surface high will migrate
eastwards as a warm front from the southwest lifts northwards. While
this warm front looks to cross through our region around the time
frame of early Monday, the surface high pressure offshore looks to
still hold influence over us into Tuesday.

Overall, a dry and mainly quiet forecast is on tap for the short
term given surface high pressure in control. Highs mainly in the low
to mid 80s anticipated for Sunday with the mid to upper 70s expected
for areas near the coast and at higher elevations. The warm front
posed to pass through early Monday will bring decent warm air
advection to the region, ushering the start of higher temperatures
for the week. Highs mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s anticipated
for Monday. The warm front is not expected to bring any
precipitation to the region.

A sea-breeze will likely develop on Sunday given the weak synoptic
flow in the forecast. This sea-breeze could penetrate well in-land
by the late afternoon into evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Summary...Few changes to the long term. Hot but mainly dry
forecast.

The synoptic pattern and evolution is nearly certain for the long
term. An upper-level ridge over the eastern CONUS Monday will build
to the north with time. By the later Tuesday time frame, the strong
ridge will look to be centered directly over the northeastern CONUS
and will likely stay in place for quite a bit. The ensembles suggest
it is not until around the time frame of Thursday/Friday that the
ridge and its associated axis will begin to break down and flatten
out some.

We could see heights of 594-600 dam over us Tuesday into at least
Thursday. At the surface level, high pressure centered offshore
looks to largely control the region into the end of the week. Though
some rounds of shortwave energy may pester the region for much of
the week, any precipitation development should be largely suppressed
given the pattern.

We are mainly looking at a dry forecast into the end of the week
with very warm temperatures for each day. High temperatures at least
in the 90s should be anticipated at this point for Tuesday,
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It is still a little too early
to discuss details regarding any potential for heat headlines,
but the potential will only grow with time as the week
progresses. Tuesday looks to be first good chance for some
headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning (through 12Z)...Mostly VFR conditions are
expected through daybreak. Light NNW breeze around 5-10 kts or less
will persist through the rest of the early morning hours with drier
air filtering in. This should stave off most fog formation, but
cannot rule out brief periods of patchy shallow fog. Moderate
confidence overall, lower confidence in fog formation.

Saturday...VFR. North to northwest winds 5-10 knots, increasing to
10-15 knots, diminishing some later in the afternoon and into the
evening. High confidence.

Saturday Night...VFR. N to NNE winds 5 knots or less. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...VFR with no significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines expected. NNW to N winds 10-15 kts will gradually veer
NE to E during the afternoon, diminishing to 5-10 kts. Winds become
more light and variable overnight around 5 kts. Seas 2-4 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Generally, no marine headlines expected.
A few gusts around 20 kts possible on Monday for all zones. ANZ450
may see seas grow to 5 feet on Monday; a short-fused SCA for the
zone may be needed. Otherwise, fair weather.

Rip Currents...

Saturday, north to northeast winds will increase to 10-15
mph with gusts around 20 mph. With 3-4 foot waves offshore and
an 8 second period, this will lead to 2-3 foot waves in the
surf zone. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents for New Jersey and
Delaware Beaches

With lighter winds and smaller waves on Sunday, there will be a
LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
everywhere.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...AKL/Wunderlin
LONG TERM...AKL/Wunderlin
AVIATION...AKL/MJL/Wunderlin
MARINE...AKL/MJL/Wunderlin