751
FXUS61 KPHI 201127
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
627 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through Thursday. This high moves off to the
east Friday as the next wave of low pressure approaches and moves
through the area Friday night. High pressure then builds in behind
this system through the weekend continuing into early next week.
Another low pressure system looks to affect the area towards the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Flow aloft will be largely zonal through today, becoming more
northwesterly tonight as an upper-low tracks southeastward
across northern portions of Quebec. At the surface, high
pressure will remain in control across the Mid- Atlantic and New
England.

After a fairly chilly morning with patchy fog (some dense at
times), mostly cloudy to overcast skies will continue across
most of the area through the day. Far northern portions of the
area may see some more substantial clearing during the afternoon
hours. High temperatures look to range from the mid- upper 40s
northwest of I-95 to near 50 southeast. No precipitation is
expected. Winds will be quite light today, with an easterly
direction being favored.

Tonight, overcast skies and light winds will continue. In fact,
some lower level clouds are expected to filter in to most of
the area. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer, with only the
higher elevations getting to freezing. Temps in the mid 30s to
near 40 are expected elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A Wave of low pressure moving east toward the region will keep it
pretty cloudy on Friday. However, warm advection precip may yet hold
off until evening, but have slight chance to low chance POPs late in
the day for roughly the SW half of the County Warning area. Despite
clouds, expect highs to rise back into the 50s for most of the area,
except 40s Poconos and near 60 southern Delaware.

Most guidance has rain, albeit fairly light, spreading eastward
across the region by Friday night as the aforementioned weak wave
moves almost straight toward us. An approaching cold front from the
northwest and associated upper trough may try to divert the system
more across our southern zones, while a later arrival of said
front/shortwave may cause it to veer farther north, but for now
still have likely to categorical POPs for most of the CWA
except northern areas (roughly the I-80 corridor and points
north. Lows forecast to be in the 30s for the Poconos and
portions of NW NJ but 40s pretty much everywhere else.

System pulls eastward out to sea on Saturday, with any rain ending
early and clouds breaking for some sun toward evening as a cold
front shifts southward across the region. Highs will be slightly
cooler than Friday and pretty close to average for this time of
year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds eastward into the region Saturday night and
mostly remains in control through Monday night as it slowly builds
eastward, eventually passing off the New England/Mid-Atlantic coast.
A weak front might spark a few showers across northern areas Sunday
evening, but odds look pretty low on this. The cold advection push
will be noticeable Saturday night and Sunday, with lows in the 20s
and low 30s, followed by highs in the 40s to low 50s. Temps moderate
slowly thereafter, with lows mostly above freezing (but still 30s)
on Sunday night and highs mostly in the 50s Monday. Lows Monday
night look to again be mainly in the 30s.

Some guidance is faster than others as far as spreading rain into
the region with the next system, which will be a low pressure
heading northeast through the Mid-west towards the Great Lakes
Tuesday and Wednesday, but most guidance has rain across the region
Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday may end up a smidge warmer than
Monday if the rain is delayed, but a milder night is likely with the
rain on Tuesday night, with lows mostly 40s, near 50 coast and
southern Delaware.

The spread in forecast guidance increases heading into next
Wednesday and beyond as the system for later Tuesday / Tuesday night
may be followed by another wave while some guidance clears things
out. Our forecast stays close to the National Blend of Models (NBM)
with chance POPs generally in the 30 to 40 percent range for
Wednesday. It should be on the mild side though so any precip that
occurs looks to be rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Primarily VFR, with instances of sub-VFR visibilities
possible in patchy fog through about 14Z. SCT-BKN mid and high
clouds. Light wind increasing slightly to around 5 kt in the
afternoon with an easterly direction favored. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR to start, with most terminals seeing a transition
to MVFR ceilings during the overnight hours. Wind light and
variable with periods of calm likely. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...Sub VFR conditions possible early in the day at RDG and ABE
and then also possible for all sites by late day with next system.

Friday night...Sub-VFR with rain likely.

Saturday...Starting sub-VFR with lingering rain possible, then VFR
returning.

Saturday night through Monday...VFR likely.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines will be necessary through tonight with wind
initially northerly at 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 feet. Later today
and into tonight, winds will shift to more of an easterly
direction but decrease even further to 5-10 kt with seas 2-3
feet.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night...Sub-SCA likely. Rain likely
Friday night.

Saturday...SCA possible with NW winds gusting 20 to 25 knots at
times.

Saturday night through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions likely.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Gorse
NEAR TERM...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/RCM
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/RCM
AVIATION...Cooper/Fitzsimmons
MARINE...Cooper/Fitzsimmons