139
FXUS61 KPHI 291909
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
209 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry high pressure will briefly build in through
tonight. A low pressure system and associated cold front will
approach the region Sunday with the cold front passing through
Sunday night. Low pressure will develop over the Southeast
Monday night before tracking northeast towards our area Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Another cold front will track through the
region Thursday night, with high pressure building back in
thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid-level trough currently centered over the Northern Plains
will track eastward towards the area tonight. The trough axis
will lift northeastward Sunday, passing to the north of our area
Sunday afternoon. H5 heights will fall Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon before subtle rises begin as the trough axis
lifts away from the region. At the surface, high pressure in
control tonight will quickly shift east Sunday morning as a
subtle warm front approaches and moves through the area. A cold
front trailing a low pressure system moving eastward through
southern portions of Ontario and Quebec will track through the
region Sunday evening.

A dry night is in store with increasing clouds. With the cold
airmass in place, temperatures will still fall into the upper
20s for most, with low-mid 30s for the Coastal Plain and the
urban corridor. Temperatures will probably bottom out earlier in
the night than typical, with a slow rebound towards sunrise as
subtle warm advection begins.

Light precipitation will begin to move into western portions of
our area during the morning hours, and spread across the entire
area by afternoon. Most locations will see a cold rain. Across
the Poconos and perhaps into portions of far northwestern NJ,
precipitation is expected to start as light snow, changing to a
rain and snow mix during the afternoon. All precipitation will
come to an end with the passage of the cold front during the
afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall amounts look to generally
be in the 0.15-0.25" range. Snow accumulations of 0.5-1" are
possible in the Poconos.

Afternoon highs will be in the mid-upper 30s for the Poconos,
low- mid 40s elsewhere northwest of I-95, and upper 40s to near
50 southeast of I-95. For the Coastal Plain, temperatures could
climb into the low 50s. It will also be breezy, with south-
southwesterly winds gusting to 20-25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Subtle ridging aloft Saturday night will quickly give way to
mid- level height falls as a trough axis shifts eastward through
the Great Lakes on Sunday. The trough axis will pass near or
just north of the area Sunday night. Subtle height rises will
occur through Monday as the trough departs. At the surface, high
pressure will quickly depart to the east by Sunday morning as
the next storm system approaches from the west. A surface low
will track to our north through the day Sunday and into Sunday
evening with a trailing cold front passing through Sunday night.

Widespread, but mostly light precipitation will overspread the
area on Sunday. Along and especially northwest of I-95,
precipitation may start as a rain and snow mix if it begins
early enough in the morning, with all snow for the Poconos. As
temperatures warm through the day, precipitation should
transition to all rain. Some light snow accumulation will be
possible for the Poconos, and perhaps down into the I-78
corridor if snow begins early enough in the morning. The Pocono
Plateau is forecast to receive around 1" of snowfall, and a
brief dusting cannot be ruled out at lower elevations.

Regarding rainfall, amounts will generally be around
0.10-0.25", with isolated areas potentially seeing slightly more
or less. The greater amounts look to occur mostly across New
Jersey. Highs on Sunday look to be in the mid 30s for the
Poconos, the mid- upper 40s for the remainder of our eastern PA
counties and much of NJ, and the low-mid 50s across the Delmarva
and near the coast. A breezy SSW 10-15 mph wind will develop on
Sunday, with gusts near 25 mph at times.

Rain will come to an end across the area Sunday evening from
west to east with the passage of the cold front. Lows Sunday
night will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Monday will be dry
but chilly, with highs generally in the low to mid 40s (mid to
upper 30s north of I-78). For the Poconos, temperatures may
remain near to slightly above freezing. Breezy northwesterly
wind can be expected behind the front Sunday night into Monday,
with gusts to around 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night currently appears mostly dry with high pressure
over the area beginning to retreat northeastward. Low
temperatures should be in the 20s for most. Low pressure will be
developing over the southeastern US, and will begin to approach
the area by daybreak Tuesday. It currently appears that the low
will make its closest approach to the area Tuesday afternoon,
and begin departing to the northeast by Tuesday night.

Widespread precipitation is expected with this system. Right
now, have chance PoPs moving into portions of the Delmarva and
eastern PA during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. PoPs are
highest Tuesday afternoon and evening, in the 80-90% realm
areawide. Precipitation chances should wind down fairly quickly
overnight Tuesday night, with the entire region precipitation-
free by Wednesday morning.

Regarding the potential for accumulating snowfall: models are
in good agreement this afternoon regarding the track of the low
and its associated features. With that said, even subtle shifts
could have big impacts given it currently appears likely that
the rain to snow line will fall somewhere in our forecast area,
with accumulating snowfall increasingly likely for some.

In looking at the overall pattern, high pressure looks to
retreat northeastward with the approach of the low. This will
tend to favor onshore flow and marine influence affecting
temperature profiles for most, especially south of I-78.
Initially, snow or a rain and snow mix could be possible as far
south as the I-95 corridor, with all snow favored northwest of
the fall line, and all rain favored to the southeast of I-95.
Through the day Tuesday, the rain/snow line will likely shift
northwest. At the peak of precipitation coverage and intensity,
all snow is possible for the Poconos and into adjacent portions
of far northwestern NJ, a rain/snow mix will be favored
northwest of the fall line, and all rain elsewhere.

It is still too soon to get overly specific with amounts.
DESI/NBM probabilistic guidance maintains a ~50% chance for 1"
of snowfall or more, and around 30-40% chance for 2" of snowfall
or more for the Lehigh Valley, I-78 corridor, and points
northwest. Probability for 1" or more is around 80% for the
Poconos, and around 60-70% for 2" or more. These probabilities
drop sharply toward the I-95 corridor, which still has about a
10-20% chance of 1" or more of snowfall and near 0% chance for
2" or more. A cold, soaking rainfall is likely elsewhere,
including locations south of I-78. High temperatures could vary
widely on Monday, with temperatures mostly in the 30s northwest
of I-95, the low to mid 40s for most of the coastal plain, but
potentially near 50 degrees near the coast where the marine
influence is most felt.

After the low departs Tuesday night, dry conditions are
expected through Friday. A cold front looks to bring a
reinforcing shot of cold air Thursday night into Friday, but for
now it looks like precipitation chances will be quite slim.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 00Z...VFR. SCT mid and high-level clouds. West-
northwest wind around 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with increasing mid-level clouds. Light and
variable wind. High confidence.

Sunday...VFR to start. Light rain will move in from west to
east 15-17Z, with MVFR ceilings accompanying it. Visibility
restrictions are possible as well at times. South-southwest wind
10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Restrictions likely in periods of rain and low
clouds. Gusty SSW winds. Rain will clear the area Sunday
evening, but low clouds could linger through most of the night.
Gusty WNW winds at night.

Monday through Monday night...Primarily VFR. Slight chance
(20%) of sub-VFR conditions in rain or snow late Monday night.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions expected in low
clouds and periods of rain/snow for the northwestern terminals,
and in rain elsewhere. Conditions should improve by late Tuesday
night.

Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines through tonight with west-northwesterly
winds around 10-15 kt today becoming southeasterly at 5-10 kt.
South- southeasterly wind will begin to increase mid-morning
Sunday to 20- 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas will increase to
4-7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued starting at 10
AM Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...SCA conditions are expected with
south winds increasing to 20-25 kt, with gusts near 30 kt. Winds
will shift to northwest Sunday night, but remain elevated.
Winds should diminish by Monday afternoon. Seas 4-6 feet.

Monday night...No marine hazards anticipated with wind below 25
kt and seas below 5 feet.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions likely with east
winds increasing to near 25-30 kt and then becoming northwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds look to diminish Wednesday
afternoon. Seas 5-7 feet, also diminishing Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Cooper/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Cooper/Staarmann
AVIATION...Cooper/Staarmann
MARINE...Cooper/Staarmann