291
FXUS61 KPHI 021033
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
633 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure initially over Quebec will continue shifting
southeast into the area, remaining in control through the
weekend and into early next week. A slightly more unsettled
pattern may begin to take shape entering mid-week, with a cold
front approaching from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure currently over southern Quebec will gradually
build southward towards the mid Atlantic through the course of
today and tonight. It will then remain over the mid Atlantic
region through Friday and beyond. The upshot of this is that
we`ll generally see mainly clear to at times partly cloudy skies
through Friday with dry weather. Today will be a bit cool with
highs only in the 60s to around 70 and E/NE winds around 5 to 10
mph. This will be followed by another chilly night for tonight
with lows mainly in the 40s to around 50. The cool airmass over
the area will start to moderate into Friday with highs for most
areas getting back into the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Our expansive high pressure system remains the dominant weather
feature through the short term period. This keeps the tranquil
weather pattern going into the weekend. Friday night and Saturday
night look mostly clear with minimal cloud cover. During the day
Saturday, it is a mostly sunny day. Highs on Saturday will be in the
mid to upper 70s. Lows Friday night and Saturday night are mainly in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
During the long term period, we do start to see some changes in our
weather pattern. The expansive high pressure system remains in
control through Monday night. Through this time period, the high
pressure system continues to shift offshore but we are still able to
feel the influence from it. This keeps the dry and tranquil
conditions going into the beginning of next week. Cloud cover
continues to be pretty minimal during this time period with mostly
clear nights and mostly sunny days. Temperatures are in the 70s
mainly for highs Sunday and Monday with overnight lows in the 50s
Sunday night and Monday night.

Tuesday is the day we start to see some changes. When we look at the
upper-levels, we see an upper-level trough based in Ontario leading
to height falls across the region on Tuesday with the actual trough
moving eastward. By Wednesday, we see the trough continuing to move
east with a ripple of energy moving through our region. At the
surface, this will be a cold front. Overall, what this means is that
clouds will filter in on Tuesday but the day looks pretty dry until
the mid to late afternoon. This is when we start to see the
potential for some showers. The coverage on Tuesday looks more
isolated. Coverage will gradually increase Tuesday night and on
Wednesday where showers will be more scattered. There is some
variability in the speed of the cold front which will play a role in
shower coverage and timing. Right now, PoPs are capped at slight
chance to chance for Tuesday and Wednesday given the uncertainty.
Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday are mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...Mainly VFR. There`s a scattered to broken cloud deck
around 3500-4000 ft that`s moved into portions of SE PA and
southern NJ this morning and it`s not out of the question PHL or
PNE could briefly drop to MVFR before 15z but the chances of
this are only around 30 percent. Winds northeast this morning
around 5 knots veering to easterly heading into this afternoon
and increasing to around 10 knots at ACY. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Remaining VFR with winds becoming light and variable.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR with winds remaining light.

Friday night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
The winds are mainly below Small Craft Advisory levels at this time
but expect seas to remain elevated through today and tonight at
generally around 5 to 8 feet. Heading into Friday, the seas
will finally be diminishing to right around or just below SCA
levels with the advisory ending for our northern most ocean zone
off Monmouth County at 6 AM Friday but not until 6 PM for our
remaining ocean zones.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday... Winds below 25 kt and seas below
5 feet. No marine headlines anticipated. Fair weather.

Rip Currents...

A high risk of rip currents is likely to continue through the
end of the week. However, the surf program ended on Tuesday,
September 30. No further surf forecasts or rip current
statements will be issued until May 2026.

Always obey posted Beach Flags. If you enter the surf zone,
always have a floatation device with you and swim near a
lifeguard if possible. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float and do not swim against the current. If able, swim
parallel to the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore
and call or wave for help.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A new Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Sussex County
due to minor coastal flooding in the back bays with this current
high tide cycle and again with the high tide cycle this evening
with the advisory going until 10 PM tonight.

For the tidal gauges along the eastern shore of the Chesapeake
Bay, the high tide cycle this evening may lead to some minor
coastal flooding but the current forecast has water levels just
below advisory criteria.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for DEZ003-
     004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper/Guzzo
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons
SHORT TERM...Guzzo
LONG TERM...Guzzo
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...