029
FXUS61 KPHI 190641
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
141 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure quickly shifts to our east later this
morning, then high pressure builds in tonight and Thursday. A weak
cold front moves through during Friday, which then stalls near
Delmarva on westward. Low pressure along this front tracks near our
area Friday night into Saturday, then high pressure builds in for
Sunday. A cold front crosses our area later Monday followed by high
pressure gradually arriving during Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Overnight, a weak low will slide across the Mid Atlantic, bringing a
chilly rain across much of the forecast area and the potential for
some snow across the Pocono Plateau and higher elevations across
northwest NJ. A mix of rain and snow is also possible across
locations around the Lehigh Valley and areas along and north of I-80
across northern NJ. Any accumulations are forecast to be a trace to
less than 1 inch at this time.

The heaviest of the precipitation with the system will be
overspreading the area through the predawn hours. High confidence
precip will remain mostly a cold rain south of the I-78 corridor,
but moving farther north and west uncertainty grows regarding the
potential for a wintry mix or snow. The latest analysis shows
surface wet bulb temperatures of 32 or colder confined mainly to the
Poconos and northern NJ. As a result, Snowfall at this time
continues to be most likely across the highest elevations in the
Poconos and extreme northwest NJ with accumulations less than an
inch. Just south of these locations some snow may mix in with the
rain along and just south of the I-80 corridor but any snow
accumulation there looks to be a half inch or less, if that. Some
wintry precip may linger into the morning commute for these
locations, but is largely expected to begin tapering off by around
daybreak. In terms of rainfall, heavier amounts are expected farther
south with a general 0.10-0.50 inches forecast. Lows will be
generally in the 30s across the board with low-30s across the north
and west while temperatures may rise some across the southern areas
overnight.

Wednesday starts out with some rain that departs quickly from about
the I-95 corridor eastward. Some additional rainfall may fall in the
morning, perhaps another 0.10-0.25 inches, bringing the storm total
rainfall to around 0.25-0.75 inches for most areas except closer to
.10 inches over the southern Poconos and NW NJ. There will be a fair
amount of moisture lingering across much of the region within a
light north to northeast wind, therefore the cloud cover will
struggle to break up. Some drier air across the northern areas
however during the afternoon may result in a bit more sunshine
trying to appear there while it stays mostly cloudy farther south.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s to low 50s.

High pressure initially centered over the lower Great Lakes
Wednesday evening will drift eastward towards New England by early
Thursday. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will linger near Delmarva
with some weak impulses moving through aloft in the upper level
flow. This will tend to keep skies mostly cloudy however it should
remain mainly dry. The exception will be across Delmarva where there
could be some spotty drizzle. With the lingering front, overnight
lows will vary from the upper 20s over NE PA and NW NJ to the 35 to
40 degree range over Delmarva as well as SE PA and adjacent portions
of southern NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A more zonal flow aloft is forecast to be in place across our region
through Thursday night. Surface high pressure across our area is
then forecast to become more centered to our northeast and east
later in the day and at night. A light northeasterly low-level flow
in place along with surface high pressure may keep quite a bit of
cloud cover in place, especially across the southern half of the
region. While some sprinkles cannot be ruled out across Delmarva,
the area should be precipitation-free.

A shortwave trough in the central to southern Plains through
Thursday night will assist in warm air advection increasing east and
northeastward with time. A front is forecast to be draped east to
west from lower Delmarva westward to surface low pressure in the
central Plains. Some associated overrunning precipitation associated
with this system and focused along the front is currently forecast
to remain well southwest of our area Thursday night. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 40s across the
northern areas to the low to mid 50s across the coastal plain. Low
temperatures Thursday night are forecast to be mostly in the
mid/upper 30s to low 40s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Synoptic Overview...A closed low traversing much of eastern Canada
Friday into Saturday supports surface low pressure. An associated
cold front slides across our area during Friday, however it stalls
from about Delmarva westward to the Ohio Valley. An impulse within a
more zonal flow south of this closed low supports a weak surface low
along the front in the Tennessee Valley. This feature slides
eastward and shifts offshore during Saturday. A trough remains
across eastern to central Canada over the weekend, which then may
amplify across the Northeast during early next week.

For Friday and Saturday...Our region is forecast to be on the
southern periphery of a closed low in eastern Canada. A weak cold
front, associated with surface low pressure tied to this closed low,
is forecast to cross our area Friday with it then stalling in the
vicinity of Delmarva on westward. A ripple of energy with the more
zonal flow across the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic
supports low pressure along the tailend of the front. There are some
differences on how the model guidance handles this, with the GFS
ensembles all showing precipitation however some are weaker, faster,
farther south or farther north. Other guidance also shows this which
is partially due to surface high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes building southeastward some with time. Given the uncertainty
with the details/timing, did not deviate from the National Blend of
Models (NBM) which has chance PoPs north of Philadelphia with likely
PoPs south and east of there. Some milder air on Friday is followed
by some cooling Saturday, especially it more rain occurs or lasts
longer on Saturday.

For Sunday...A shortwave trough may slide across the Mid-Atlantic
during this time, however weak surface high pressure is currently
forecast to be across our region during the day before it shifts
south and east at night. As a result, a dry day is currently
expected with more sunshine returning.

For Monday and Tuesday...An upper-level trough across eastern to
central Canada may amplify eastward and across the Northeast. This
would support surface low pressure tracking well to our north,
however its cold front slides across our area later Monday. Some
guidance/ensembles are stronger with this upper-level trough and
also the cold front. If the stronger solutions end up being correct,
then rain chances would tend to increase and also Tuesday would
feature a stronger/gusty northwest wind. No changes from NBM during
this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of overnight...VFR ceilings lower to MVFR then to IFR between
about 07z-10z as rain continues to overspread the area and pick up
some in intensity. Some snow may mix in at KABE but given low
confidence just continued with a PROB30 group for now. Winds
becoming light and variable overall, though will eventually favor a
light east/northeast flow by morning. Moderate confidence overall.

Wednesday...IFR ceilings in the morning improve to primarily MVFR
with VFR possible later in the afternoon. Improvement from IFR to
MVFR likely between 16z-19z but confidence remains low in when
exactly conditions improve. Some rain mostly from around the KPHL
area ends during the morning. Light and variable winds becoming
north/northeast 5-8 knots. Low confidence.

Wednesday night...Becoming mainly VFR through the evening except
around MIV and ACY where MVFR cigs could persist. Winds generally
north to northeast around 5 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR ceilings.

Friday and Saturday...A period of sub-VFR conditions and some rain
possible, especially Friday night into Saturday morning.

Sunday...Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions will remain below SCA criteria through Wednesday
and Wednesday night. SW winds backing to east and southeast through
the predawn hours and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. For Wednesday,
winds continue to back to more of a north and northeast direction
and will generally be around 15 gusting to around 20 knots by later
in the day. These winds will diminish slightly Wednesday night. Seas
around 1 to 2 feet overnight increasing to 2 to 3 feet by later
Wednesday. Rain and mist overnight into Wednesday morning may result
in some reduced visibilities.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...The conditions are anticipated to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Gorse
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Gorse