716
FXUS61 KPHI 060508
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
108 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Tuesday. A cold front comes
through on Wednesday. High pressure returns for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For the remainder of tonight, the clear sky with calm winds and dew
points largely in the low to mid 50s along with temperatures in a
similar range will result in some patchy fog being possible,
especially across sheltered areas in the Pine Barrens and valleys.

On Monday, we are mostly sunny again with highs in the mid 70s to
low 80s with dew points creeping up into the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Winds will be light, around 5-10 mph out of the SSW.

Our high pressure system slides offshore Monday night with light
south to southwest return flow remaining. This will keep
temperatures on the more mild side with lows in the mid 50s to low
60s. Another night of some patchy fog development is possible, but
incoming cloud cover and winds not completely calm should limit the
fog development a bit compared to some of the previous nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure slides offshore on Monday Night, with light
southerly return flow remaining. This will keep temperatures on
the more mild side with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Cannot
rule out some fog here and there, but incoming cloud cover and a
light southerly wind should prevent widespread fog from
developing.

Cloud cover increases Tuesday ahead of a cold front that is expected
to bring rain Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Warm-air advection
strengthens as the front approaches, allowing temperatures to get
into the upper 70s/low 80s. Guidance continues to have the bulk of
the precipitation coming in later, so nearly everyone should have a
dry Tuesday.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday will feature a cold front approaching
and moving through, bringing some much needed rain to the area. Most
of the rain will fall during the Wednesday morning hours, with just
some lingering showers near the coast in the afternoon. Cannot rule
out a rumble of thunder as model soundings show some elevated
instability, but the severe and flash flooding threat remains very
low. Current forecast has a widespread rain nearing an inch for
nearly the entire area. Some areas likely will fall short, while
some over-perform. As this event gets closer, those details
will become more ironed out. Temperatures on Wednesday hover
around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Canadian high pressure moves in on Wednesday night, remaining in
control through the end of the week. Cold-air advection sets up in
the wake of the departing front, resulting in seasonably cool
temperatures both Thursday and Friday with highs generally in the
low to mid 60s. Overnight lows dip down into the upper 30s/low to
mid 50s Wednesday Night and Thursday Night. With clear skies and
light winds expected on Thursday Night, some areas, mainly from I-78
on north, could drop into the mid 30s. Would not be surprised to see
the first Frost headlines of the season for northern New Jersey and
southern Poconos by the end of the week.

The weekend forecast looks more uncertain. Some guidance continues
to develop a system to our south, with high pressure to the north
and east. These two features will determine what happens this week.
If the high ends up closer, this would suppress any system to the
south, keeping us dry and warmer. If the high ends up further north,
this would allow for any system off to the south to get closer to
our area. Stuck with the NBM which has around a 20% chance of
showers both days, which shows the potential for showers, but not a
high degree of confidence or certainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of Tonight...Primarily VFR though patchy fog is possible
again. Most likely is at KMIV again (50-70% chance). I-95
terminals, KRDG, and KACY have a slightly lower potential of
fog development (30-50% chance). Moderate confidence on
prevailing VFR with lower confidence on any visibility
restrictions due to fog.

Monday...VFR with a south to southwesterly wind around 5 knots or
less. High confidence.

Monday Night...VFR. A south to SW wind around 5 knots. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with
periods of rain and low clouds coming through.

Wednesday Night through Friday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards expected through Monday night. S to SW winds
around 5-15 kts withs seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Wind gusts on the ocean could get near
25 kt at times, resulting in potential SCA conditions

Wednesday Night through Thursday...SCA conditions expected with a
low chance of gales (15-20%). North/northwest wind gusts nearing 30
kt with seas 5 to 7 feet.

Thursday Night...SCA conditions diminishing as winds and seas
decline but some lingering 5 foot seas cannot be ruled out.

Friday...No marine headlines expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Guzzo/Hoeflich
MARINE...Guzzo/Hoeflich