602
FXUS61 KPHI 081946
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
246 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure is in control through tonight. Low pressure and
its associated strong cold front moves through Sunday into Sunday
night. High pressure centered near the Gulf Coast begins to build in
through Tuesday, before another cold front crosses through on
Wednesday. High pressure then returns by Thursday and is in control
through the start of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A partly to mostly sunny and seasonably mild afternoon is underway
as the area remains situated between systems. One area of low
pressure has departed off to the east over Atlantic Canada while the
next is trying to organize itself across the midwestern states.

Little change expected through the rest of this afternoon but as we
go into the evening and overnight periods we`ll start to see some
increase in cloud cover as a broad area of low pressure starts to
approach from the west and southwest. A warm front associated with
this system will extend west to east over the Poconos and NW NJ and
along this feature there could be some showers overnight in those
locations. Generally expect overnight lows in the 40s.

Unsettled weather still looks to be on tap for Sunday as the
aformentioned low affects the area. This will occur as an upper
level trough deepens to the west over the Great Lakes extending
south into the midwestern states. The system looks to come
through in a couple different pieces. Sunday morning, primary
low pressure will be located near Ohio with a secondary low
developing near eastern Virginia. As this secondary low moves
northward up the coast it will bring a period of rain through
that will affect the area much of the day. Skies will be mostly
cloudy with highs ranging from the 50s to near 60 over the
southern Poconos and NW NJ to the middle to upper 60s over
southern Delmarva. Also worth noting, as the triple point moves
north along the coast these areas that get close to or into the
warm sector will have some instability so there could be some
embedded thunderstorms. These would be confined mainly to
southern Delmarva, southern coastal NJ, and our marine zones.

Late day Sunday into Sunday evening there will likely be a break in
precip as the initial wave associated with the coastal low
moves off to the north and east. However the primary low will
track E/NE through PA toward New England and this will push a
cold front through west to east bringing some more showers by
later Sunday evening into the overnight. This should be mostly
moving out of the area by around sunrise Monday. Total rain
amounts through the period of Sunday and Sunday night look to
range from a couple tenths of an inch to upwards of .50 to .70
inches in spots. This will not be enough to cause any hydro
concerns. The colder airmass will for the most part not really
arrive until after 12z Monday so morning lows will be mainly in
the 40s except 30s over the Poconos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will be the beginning of a temporary pattern
change as the strong front departs and a modified arctic airmass is
ushered into the region as a deep, strong upper trough arrives. As
cold air advection increases on Monday under cyclonic flow, this
should support a large strato-cumulus cloud deck to occur, resulting
in mostly cloudy skies. Thus, high temps on Monday are expected to
peak by mid-day with highs ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s.

The deep upper trough begins to move into the region on Monday night
with the trough axis located over East Coast by Tuesday morning.
Some of the coldest air of the season arrives as 850 mb temperatures
will be as cold as -10C to -12C. Despite partly to mostly cloudy
skies, low temperatures will be below freezing for all on Monday
night, except for areas along the immediate coast. Wind chills
should be fall well into the teens and 20s. Some guidance also
indicates snow showers, especially in the Poconos and Lehigh Valley
overnight. Looks like this is tied to lake-effect upstream, so
wouldn`t be surprised if occasional flurries survive the trip with
such strong flow at the surface and the trough overhead. Temps on
Tuesday will feel more like December than November, with highs only
in the low to mid 40s (30s in the higher terrain). The other item of
note, is that the Mid-Atlantic region will be situated between
strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and strong high
pressure over northern Gulf coast. This results in a strong pressure
gradient over the area. Blustery west-northwest winds are
anticipated with wind gusts up to 40 mph possible before diminishing
later in the day. The area will remain nestled within the upper
trough through the afternoon before departing the region by Tuesday
night. This will allow the airmass to moderate aloft. So, while it
will still be quite chilly, low temperatures for Tuesday night will
not be as cold compared to the night before.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For Wednesday and Thursday...While the main upper-level trough has
already departed, additional shortwave energy diving southeastward
from the Midwest and Great Lakes should maintain a trough into the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions through Thursday. As this occurs,
surface high pressure centered across the Southeast US will track
eastward. A notable breeze looks to be present for both Wednesday
and Thursday as a modest pressure gradient persists. A weak clipper
system will also track across eastern Canada on Wednesday, with a
weak cold front crossing through the area later Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Overall, this front looks to be moisture-starved.
Aside of a stray shower up into the higher terrain, suspect much of
the area will remain dry. Temperatures will be warmer compared to
earlier in the week, but largely will remain a few degrees below
normal.

For Friday and Saturday...The Mid-Atlantic region looks to be
situated on the backside of the aformentioned upper trough as it
gradually moves away later Saturday. High pressure still looks like
it will be centered off to the west, so seasonably cool temperatures
shall continue into the start of next weekend. Fortunately though,
this period looks to be mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR. W/NW winds around 5 to 10 knots with just some
high cloudiness around at times. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR likely prevails, though showers may encroach on the
region towards dawn. Winds light and variable and then eventually
becoming more easterly by dawn. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...A period of IFR conditions with showers likely for most
sites. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out...especially around MIV
and ACY. ESE winds around 5 to 10 knots shifting to SW late day.
Moderate confidence.

Sunday night...Sub VFR conditions persisting into the evening
followed by improvement to VFR in the wake of a cold front. SW winds
around 5-10 knots shifting to WNW late. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...Mainly VFR with occasional sub-VFR
ceilings. A slight chance of a rain shower during the day with a
slight chance of a snow shower at night. Gusty winds up to 25 kt.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR. Gusty winds expected each afternoon
with gusts up to 20-30 kt, diminishing at night. Otherwise, no
significant weather is expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions the remainder of today and tonight. Winds and
seas increase some Sunday into Sunday night and could get near SCA
conditions at times but confidence not high on this. There will also
be some showers and fog around Sunday and Sunday night and even the
risk of a few thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...SCA conditions probable due to wind
gusts of 25-30 kt and seas building up to 6 feet.

Tuesday through Thursday...SCA conditions likely with gales force
winds possible on Tuesday and Thursday. Seas as large as 6-8 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Gorse
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons
SHORT TERM...DeSilva/Gorse
LONG TERM...DeSilva/Gorse
AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons
MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons