456
FXUS61 KPHI 121441
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
Issued by National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
941 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be centered over the Southeast. A cold front
crosses the region tonight as high pressure over the Southeast
slides into the Gulf Coast. High pressure redevelops over the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast to close out the week
as a trough lies over the Northeast. High pressure passes
through on Saturday, followed by a clipper system Saturday night
through Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday, and then
another system may impact the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Updated the forecast this morning to significantly increase
cloud cover due to the observed widespread stratocumulus.
Looking at model RH forecasts aloft, these clouds will likely
stay around to some extent much of the day, with more breaks to
the south than the north. These clouds could hold temperatures
down a little, but overall, it appears the temperature forecast
is better captured.

Previous discussion:

High pressure across the Southeastern US gradually gains better
footing across the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday as a strong low
across southeastern Quebec slowly departs northward. As a
result, dry conditions will prevail, but we are still expecting
a rather tight pressure gradient. Another windy day is in store
with WSW winds gusting to 25-30 mph in the afternoon. Cold air
advection will not be as strong as yesterday, however, thanks to
the WSW winds. Expect afternoon temperatures to warm into the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

A weak cold front slides through the area overnight Wednesday
but does not look to bring much in the form of precip. Overnight
lows will be in the mid 30s to around 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will be over the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys and into the Gulf Coast states on Thursday while surface
and mid level troughiness lies over the Northeast. The trough
will slowly lift away during the day Friday. That aforementioned
area of high pressure then splits, with two centers of high
pressure developing. One will be over the Southeast while the
new center will be over the Northeast Friday night. This center
slides offshore on Saturday.

Gusty northwest winds persist through Thursday, and
temperatures will be seasonable for this time of the year.
Shortwaves should produce cloudiness over at least northern
portions of the forecast area, and some flurries or sprinkles
cannot be ruled out for the southern Poconos and far northwest
New Jersey. Northwest winds during the day will average 15 to 20
mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts. Winds diminish after sunset with
loss of diurnal heating. Highs will generally be in the low to
mid 50s with lows Thursday night in the 30s.

Temperatures and sky conditions Friday and Friday night will be
similar to Thursday, however, the pressure gradient will not be
as strong as the upper trough will be departing. This will
result in lighter winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the area Saturday departs Saturday night.
Clouds increase throughout the day ahead of an approaching storm
system from the west. Temperatures will be seasonable for this
time of the year with highs in the low 50s.

Clipper system passes north of the area Saturday night and
departs on Sunday. The center of this low will be far enough
north that southerly flow ahead of the system results in
temperatures warm enough for precipitation to be plain rain, but
cannot rule out some wet snowflakes in the higher elevations of
the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey. Lows
Saturday night will generally be in the upper 30s to low 40s,
with lows in the mid 40s in Delmarva.

Rain tapers off on Sunday, but the cold front does not cross
until Sunday night. This keeps the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic in
the warm sector on Sunday, and highs will be in the low to mid
60s in southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and in the mid and
upper 60s in Delmarva.

Behind the cold front Sunday night, temperatures tumble back to
near and just below normal on Monday. Highs top off in the
upper 40s to low 50s. Strong west to northwest winds develop,
generally 15 to 20 mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts, as the pressure
gradient tightens between departing low pressure and high
pressure building into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Weak low pressure may move into the area Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with ceilings FL050-070. Southwesterly winds around
10-15 knots with gusts around 20-25 knots. High confidence.

Wednesday night...VFR. West winds around 10 knots gusting to 15
knots at times. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...VFR. W-NW winds 15 to 20 kt
with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Winds diminish Thursday night.

Friday through Friday night...VFR. W-NW winds gusting to 20 kt
during the day.

Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday...Sub-VFR in SHRA. Improving
conditions late Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA flags for all marine zones thru Wednesday night with gusts
25-30 kts. Seas largely 3 to 5 feet with a few 6 foot seas
further offshore. Fair weather is expected.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...SCA conditions during the day
with winds diminishing and seas subsiding at night.

Friday through Friday night...Generally sub-SCA conditions, but
there may be occasional gusts up to 25 kt during the day.

Saturday through Saturday night...Sub-SCA conditions.

Sunday...SCA conditions possible. W-SW winds 15 to 20 kt with
25 to 30 kt gusts.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MJL/MPS
MARINE...MJL/MPS