418
FXUS61 KPHI 040550
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
150 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure initially centered over the Mid-Atlantic will
remain in place through the weekend, gradually shifting east
into early next week. A strong cold front will move through the
region on Wednesday. High pressure will return Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure gradually slips south of the region into early this
morning bringing a light southwesterly flow. Winds are not terribly
significant, but morning lows generally won`t be as cool as the
previous mornings thanks to dew points creeping up and gradient
winds not going completely calm. Lows look to generally range
from the mid 40s to low 50s.

For Saturday, temperatures warm compared to Friday as high pressure
slips farther south bringing a warmer and slightly more humid
airmass due to the return flow around the high. Temperatures will
warm into the upper 70s to low 80s in the afternoon (around 5-10
degrees above climo for early October) under mostly sunny skies.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.

Overall, not much change in the weather pattern for Saturday night
as high pressure continues to dominate our weather. It will remain
mainly clear with lows ranging from the low 50s in the colder spots
of interior NJ and eastern PA to the middle to upper 50s near the
coast, the Bays, and the urban corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Our high pressure system continues to be the dominant weather
feature through the short term forecast period with it continuing to
shift eastward offshore. Even with its eastward movement, we still
feel the influence of this high pressure system.

Minimal cloud cover is expected Sunday through Monday due to this
high pressure system. In the temperature department, highs on Sunday
are in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows Sunday night are in
the 50s. Temperatures on Monday then climb into the mid 70s to low
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
During the long term period, we do start to see some changes in our
weather pattern. The expansive high pressure system remains in
control through Monday night which keeps the dry and tranquil
conditions going. Clouds filter in a bit Monday night. Our overnight
lows Monday night are in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday is the day we start to see some changes. When we look at the
upper-levels, we see an upper-level trough to our north and west
leading to height falls across the region on Tuesday as the trough
moves eastward. By Tuesday night and into Wednesday, we see the
trough continuing to move east with a ripple of energy moving
through our region. At the surface, this will be a cold front.
Overall, what this means is that clouds will continue to build in on
Tuesday but the day looks pretty dry overall. Any showers Tuesday
look to be more so in the evening and isolated. Coverage will
gradually increase Tuesday night and on Wednesday where showers will
be more scattered or even a bit widespread at times with more
stratiform rain. This main period of precip looks to exit by the
late afternoon or into Wednesday evening. Some showers may linger
into Wednesday night for our southeast zones but we trend drier by
Thursday morning.

There is some variability in the speed of the cold front which will
play a role in timing. Right now there is no concern for severe
weather, but some elevated instability may lead to an isolated
thunderstorm. One other variability has been QPF with this front
which is expected given this is in the long term part of the
forecast. In terms of the QPF, it mainly looks to be some
beneficial rain at this time.

After the cold front passes, there is a noticeable cold air
advection signal late Wednesday into Thursday. In terms of
temperatures, highs on Tuesday are in the mid 70s to low 80s. An
increase in clouds along with rain cooled air will have temperatures
in the mid 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday. We really notice the cooler
air Wednesday night behind the cold front with lows in the mid 30s
for the Poconos, most in the 40s, and low 50s as you head southeast.
On Thursday, highs are in the upper 50s to mid 60s. For Friday, most
are in the 60s for highs. We also have another high pressure system
building in for Thursday and Friday which will lead to more in the
way of sunshine after the midweek rain we see.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Overnight...VFR/SKC. Winds 5 kts or less favoring a southwesterly
direction. High confidence.

Saturday...VFR with some passing cirrus. Winds around 5 kts favoring
a southwesterly direction. Sea/river/bay breezes will shift wind
directions more southerly by 18Z for PHL/ILG/ACY. High confidence in
prevailing conditions.

Saturday night...VFR with winds light (2-5 knots) and generally
favoring a southwesterly direction. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Period of sub-VFR conditions
are possible in scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards expected through Saturday night. S to SW winds
around 5-15 kts withs seas 3 to 4 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday night...No marine headlines are
anticipated. Winds look to remain below 25 kt with seas
remaining below 5 feet.

Tuesday through Wednesday...A period of SCA conditions is
possible with strengthening southerly wind ahead of an
approaching cold front Tuesday into Tuesday night. SCA
conditions are also possible on Wednesday behind the cold front.
Winds may approach 25 kt. Seas 3-5 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper/Guzzo
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons
SHORT TERM...Guzzo
LONG TERM...Guzzo
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo