460
FXUS61 KPHI 120117
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
817 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered across the Southeastern U.S. will keep
conditions dry through Wednesday. A cold front will cross our
area later Wednesday with high pressure building in towards the
end of the week and over the weekend. The next low pressure system
may arrive later Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong westerly pressure gradient will remain across our
region through Wednesday as the area remains sandwiched between
a strong low to the northeast and a strong high to the southwest.
A subtle upper ridge will cross the area overnight.

The gusty winds, from earlier, have started to diminish with
the loss of daytime mixing. The gusts will gradually diminish to
under 20mph. There were some snow showers across the NW areas
earlier, but they have ended as of 8 PM. Dry weather is expected
overnight.

As the subtle upper ridge passes across the region, drier air
will become more dominant and the backing winds aloft will cause
the cold air advection to cease. Occasional mid-level clouds
will keep temperatures seasonably cold, but perhaps a bit
milder than last night. Overall, lows will range from the upper
20s to mid 30s, producing wind chills in the 20s for most areas
by dawn Wed.

Southwesterly flow continues into Wednesday and as a result,
temperatures will warm into the upper 40s to low 50s by the
afternoon. It will still be breezy though as the pressure
gradient lingers over the area. Sustained winds around 15 mph
are expected with gusts up to 30 mph. Otherwise, a dry day is
expected with partly to mostly cloudy skies once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front slides through the area overnight Wednesday but
does not look to bring much in the form of precip. We do continue to
see cold air filter in out of the west. There is cyclonic flow
across the area into Thursday due to a low pressure system that the
cold front is attached to being to the north in Canada. Due to a
combination of the cyclonic flow, deterministic guidance, and model
sounding data, I opted to include a mention of slight chance to
chance of rain and snow showers in the Poconos for Wednesday night
into Thursday. Outside of the Poconos, the remainder of our NW zones
and parts of northern New Jersey may also see some of these rain and
snow showers but PoPs are below mentionable at this time as showers
look more isolated currently. Lows are mainly in the 30s Wednesday
night and highs on Thursday reach the mid 40 to mid 50s. A high
pressure system trying to build into the region along with the low
to the north will keep a tighter pressure gradient across the area
on Thursday. Due to the cold air advection, the tighter pressure
gradient, and mixing potential, it will be a bit windy Thursday with
gusts to 25-30 mph.

By Thursday night, winds decrease to 15-20 mph. Lows on Thursday
night are in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Friday is when that high
pressure system moves in but this high pressure system is on the
weaker side. There may again be a potential for some isolated
showers Friday with the NW flow but PoPs are below mentionable at
this time due to a drier trend through the day with the high
pressure system moving in. Just like Thursday, it will be a bit
windy with gusts 20-30 mph. Highs on Friday are mainly in the mid
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our high pressure system moves across the area into Saturday which
keeps us dry. Minimal cloud cover Friday night will be followed by
increasing clouds late Saturday ahead of our next system. Highs on
Saturday are in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Our next system arrives Saturday night. A low pressure system will
move into the Great Lakes region and a warm front lifts through the
area Saturday night. This will lead to the chance (30-50%) for rain
showers across much of the area. As the low pressure system moves
into the Northeast, it drags a cold front through our area Sunday.
This keeps the chance for showers going into Sunday. By Sunday
night, we trend drier which continues into Monday. There is the
signal for another system around Monday night into Tuesday which
brings the potential for more rain showers to the area. Highs on
Sunday are in the mid 50s to mid 60s. We are cooler Monday with
highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR ceilings. Westerly winds 15-20 kts with gusts up
to 30 kts early, diminishing to around 10 kts and shifting
toward the southwest between 03Z-06Z. High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. Southwesterly winds around 10-15 knots with
gusts around 20-25 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR. Wind gusts 20-25 knots during the daytime hours.

Friday and Saturday...VFR. Wind gusts up to 20 knots during the
daytime hours.

Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warnings were changed to SCA flags for Delaware Bay at 7PM.
The Gale for the NJ/DE ocean zones will continue until midnight
when they will be converted to SCA flags. The SCA will run thru
Wednesday with gusts 20 to 20 kts expected to continue Wednesday.
Fair weather is expected overnight and Wednesday.

Outlook...

Thursday...SCA conditions likely. West winds gusting around 25-30
kts. Seas 3 to 5 feet Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...SCA conditions possible with west-northwest
winds gusting 20-25 knots. Seas of 2-3 feet.

Sunday...SCA conditions possible with a SW wind around 25 knots and
rain showers.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431.
     Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/Guzzo
NEAR TERM...AKL/po
SHORT TERM...Guzzo
LONG TERM...Guzzo
AVIATION...AKL/Guzzo/po
MARINE...AKL/Guzzo/po