212
FXUS61 KPHI 100907
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
407 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moves offshore this morning as a colder airmass
filters in behind it with high pressure centered near the South
Central US building in through Tuesday. Another cold front crosses
our area later Wednesday. High pressure then starts to arrive later
Thursday and remains nearby through the the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front is slowly starting to move across the region ushering
both chillier temperatures and drier air. The rainfall from
overnight will taper away quickly with daybreak. The deep upper
level trough over the Ohio Valley region will progress towards
the region delivering a shot of modified, arctic air. With cold
air advection increasing under cyclonic flow, this should
support a pretty hefty strato-cumulus cloud deck, resulting in
mostly cloudy to at times overcast skies.

With the cloudy skies, incoming solar radiation will be muted so
temps will be seasonably cool in the 40s to low 50s.  Winds post
frontal should be fairly brisk as the pressure gradient remains
fairly strong.  Expect winds will start picking up towards mid
afternoon, with gusts of 20-30mph developing across the region.

Heading into the overnight hours, the gusts will weaken as high
pressure centered over the Gulf Coast starts building into the Mid
Altantic. Modest westerly flow develops across the region and this
leads to a rather raw day Tuesday with highs peaking in the low to
mid 40s and combined with the 10-15mph winds, wind chill values
start out in the teens early Tuesday morning only getting to the low
30s mid afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The Mid- Atlantic region will be situated between strong low
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and strong high pressure over
the Southeastern US. This results in a tight pressure gradient over
the area that will linger through Wednesday High pressure will keep
the region mostly dry through Wednesday. A weak cold front will then
move through late Wednesday, though it looks to remain rather
moisture-starved.

With an upper level trough moving out of the region Tuesday night,
our cold airmass will moderate aloft. This along with winds shifting
more southwesterly at the surface, low temperatures for Tuesday
night will not be as cold compared to the night before with upper
20s to mid 30s.

A modest warming trend continues into Wednesday thanks to SW to WSW
winds staying elevated and helping bring a slightly warmer airmass
into the region. Afternoon highs will warm back up into the upper
40s to mid/upper 50s. A weak cold front moves through late Wednesday
with little moisture and only a minor change to temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure across the Southeast US will gradually gain a stronger
hold over the Mid Atlantic late week and into the weekend. Mostly
dry conditions with cool temperatures a few degrees below climo. Our
next storm system will begin to approach the region Sunday
afternoon/night as an amplified upper level trough pushes through
the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...Generally VFR conditions will prevail. Brief MVFR
ceilings may develop just after day break. Light winds generally out
of the west. Moderate confidence.

Today...MVFR ceilings possible in the morning, lifting to VFR late
in the morning. W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with
20 to 25 kt gusts after 18Z. Moderate confidence.

Monday night...VFR. W to NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20
kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR. West-northwest wind gusts 25-35 knots during the day,
diminishing some at night.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR. Wind gusts 20-25 knots.

Friday...VFR. Winds diminishing to 10-15 knots, becoming less than
10 kts at night.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds around 10-15 kt will quickly transition to a west-
northwest wind in wake of a cold frontal passage. Seas of 3-4 feet.
Dense marine fog possible depending on winds.

Today, sensible weather will be quiet with west-northwest winds
increasing to around 10-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt possible during
the afternoon. Seas of 3-5 feet.

Tonight...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Northwest winds
increasing to 20-30 kts and seas building to 3-5 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Westerly winds increasing to 25-35 kts with gusts up to 40
kts possible. Seas 4-7 feet. Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale
Warning for Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Winds gradually
diminish overnight, decreasing below Gale criteria, though gusts
will still be around 25-30 kts.

Wednesday and Thursday...SCA conditions possible. West winds gusting
around 25 kts. Seas 4 to 7 feet Wednesday diminish to 3 to 5 feet
Thursday.

Friday...SCA conditions possible. WNW winds gusting to around
20 kts.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ430-431-450>455.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night
     for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...MJL
AVIATION...Deal/MJL
MARINE...Deal/MJL