064
FXUS61 KPHI 221900
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
200 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak clipper system will pass by to the north on Sunday. High
pressure moves in Sunday night through Tuesday morning, with a
frontal system moving in for the mid-week period. High pressure
takes over in the wake of the frontal system for the
Thanksgiving holiday through the end of the week, resulting in
dry but cold weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure off the southeast New Jersey coast continues to
track east as a cold front works its way through the region.
Surface high pressure briefly builds into the Northeast tonight
before sliding offshore Sunday morning. A clipper system, an H5
trough with strong shortwave energy currently over central
Canada just north of the Northern Plains, will approach on
Sunday and will move into eastern Canada and northern New
England Sunday afternoon.

Any lingering rain tapers off early this afternoon, and skies
will clear out going into this evening.

Some weak shortwave energy may result in some high clouds late
tonight, mainly over the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and
far northwest New Jersey. For the rest of the area, skies will
be mostly clear to partly cloudy. One thing to watch out for
late tonight and into Sunday morning is the development of fog.
The ground will not get a chance to sufficiently dry out from
rainfall last night into this morning given that sunset is so
early and there may not be enough sunshine to dry the ground
out. With a cooler and drier airmass building into the region
due to that area of high pressure, that ground moisture should
result in the development of fog, especially where skies are
clear and winds are nearly calm. For now, not expecting dense
fog, but cannot rule out some locally dense fog, especially in
the Pine Barrens of New Jersey and away from the coasts in
Delmarva. 12Z HREF showing probability of visibility less than 1
mile generally 10 to 20 percent across portions of New Jersey
and southeast Pennsylvania. Also cannot rule out the potential
for some patchy freezing fog with temperatures dropping below
freezing. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

With the clipper system passing north of the area on Sunday,
some rain and/or snow showers are possible, mainly for areas
north of I-78, and those snow showers would be limited to the
higher elevations of the southern Poconos. PoPs will generally
be slight chance to low end chance. QPF will be minimal. For the
rest of the area, skies will generally be partly cloudy. Highs
will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, though in the mid and upper
50s in Delmarva.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our clipper system exits Sunday night which allows for colder
air to filter in which continues into Monday. Lows Sunday night
are in the 30s. Highs on Monday reach the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Behind this cold front there is an expansive area of high
pressure. On Sunday night, there are some hints at some
lingering light showers in the Poconos but these look to end
through sunday night. The winds will also increase Sunday night
with cold air advection and a tighter pressure gradient taking
place. Generally wind gusts will be 15-25 mph with gusts in the
Poconos upwards of 35 mph. Winds do start to diminish through
the day Monday. For Monday and Monday night, we look completely
dry with a mostly clear sky during the day Monday. Clouds do
start to increase Monday night ahead of our next system that
arrives Tuesday.

On Tuesday, a warm front will be lifting northward through the area
which is attached to a deepening low pressure system near the Great
Lakes region. This warm front along with the high pressure system
moving offshore will set the stage for warmer air to filter in
Tuesday into Tuesday night. We are cloudy Tuesday with rain starting
to move in by midday and becoming more widespread Tuesday evening.
Highs on Tuesday are in the low 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Periods of rain continue Tuesday night into Wednesday. The first
cold front with the deepening low now moving into Canada will move
through Wednesday night. This will result in more periods of rain
into Wednesday night. In the temperature department, we see lows
Tuesday night in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Highs on Wednesday are in
the 60s for most. By Wednesday night, lows are in the 30s for many.

After the cold front departs into Thanksgiving morning, the trend
continues to be drier for Thanksgiving day at this point. There is
the signal for things to turn on the windier side and the colder air
filtering in has highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. Another
reinforcing cold front moves through Thanksgiving night which
results in more cold air moving in. An expansive surface high builds
in from the west on Friday, but with the westerly flow, it keeps the
cold air advection going. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 30s to
mid 40s with the potential for some windy conditions. The potential
for windy conditions for the end of the week looks to be a
combination of the strong cold air advection allowing for stronger
winds aloft to mix down along with a tight pressure gradient from
the deepening low to the north and the expansive high building in
from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...Lingering MVFR CIGs will become VFR by 21Z.
N-NW winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...Overall, VFR. However, there is the potential for
VSBY restrictions in mist/fog developing by 04Z. Confidence is
too low to include BR in the 18Z TAF, but the potential cannot
be ruled out. Best chances will be at KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KMIV/KACY.
NW winds less than 10 kt, becoming LGT/VRB. Low confidence.

Sunday...VFR. Cannot rule out a brief, light SHRA at KABE in
the afternoon. SW winds less than 10 kt. Moderate confidence
overall.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday night...VFR. No significant
weather.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Sub-VFR conditions expected
with periods of showers and low clouds.

Thursday...Sub-VFR conditions possible early and then becoming
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through Sunday. North to
northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming
less than 10 kt late tonight. Winds become southwest 10 to 15 kt
by Sunday afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday..A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for all marine zones from Sunday night through early
Monday afternoon for wind gusts of 25 knots.

Monday Night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected.

Tuesday night...SCA conditions possible with wind gusts near 25
kt.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...No marine headlines expected.

Thursday...SCA conditions possible with wind gusts near 25
knots.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...Guzzo
LONG TERM...Guzzo
AVIATION...Guzzo/MPS
MARINE...Guzzo/MPS