607
FXUS61 KPHI 131552
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1052 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly shift eastward into the area through
Saturday. Saturday night, low pressure will approach the area,
with a warm front passing through the area. A cold front will
move through on Sunday. A few reinforcing shots of cool air
arrive Sunday into Monday, with high pressure gradually building
back in through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Late morning discussion...
Upped pops across northern areas where rain/snow showers have
moved into the region. These should dissipate as they head
further southeast and expect coverage to dwindle as we head
through the rest of the day.

Early morning discussion...
A weak cold front moves across the region later this morning.
Surface high pressure will be entrenched over the Plains States,
Midwest, and into the Gulf Coast and Southeast states as an
upper trough lies over the Northeast. Strong shortwave energy
will dive into the base of the trough today and tonight.

In terms of sensible weather, while some sprinkles or flurries
are possible in the higher elevations of the southern Poconos
and far northwest New Jersey with the passage of that cold front
and with those shortwaves, conditions will be dry otherwise.
Those shortwaves will also result in partly to mostly cloudy
skies for northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania and
partly to mostly sunny skies for southern New Jersey and
Delmarva.

After the passage of the cold front, gusty northwest winds will
develop over the area by midday, with winds increasing to 15 to
20 mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts. Winds diminish this evening
with loss of diurnal heating and will range from 10 to 15 mph in
the evening, then 5 to 10 mph late tonight.

Cold air advection will be underway today, and highs will be a
couple of degrees cooler than Wednesday, topping off in the
upper 40s to low 50s for most of the area, and in the mid 50s or
so in Delmarva.

Lows tonight will generally be in the low to mid 30s. Elevated
winds should keep optimal radiational cooling conditions from
developing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region will initially be under enhanced northwesterly flow
aloft with a trough departing to the east and ridging building
in over the central portion of the US. As the trough departs to
the east into Saturday, a closed upper-low over northern
portions of Manitoba will shift southeastward into portions of
Quebec, with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft remaining in
place across are area as the ridge over the central US is
subdued. At the surface, weak high pressure will remain in
control as a surface cyclone begins to approach from the west.

Friday will feature partly cloudy skies and high temperatures
generally in the low 50s. Friday night will remain partly
cloudy, but with only a light northwesterly wind, temperatures
will quickly fall. Lows look to be in the mid-upper 20s for most
of eastern PA and NJ, but in the low-mid 30s across the coastal
plain, urban corridor, and Delmarva. Increasing clouds are
expected on Saturday as the low pressure system to the west
begins to approach. High temperatures are expected to be
generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s near and north of I-78,
and mid 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The closed upper-low over Ontario will continue to shift
southeastward into portions of Quebec Saturday night and into
Sunday. A shortwave impulse will pivot through the region during
the day on Sunday. At the surface, a warm front will push
through the region on Saturday night. Low pressure will pass to
the north over portions of New England on Sunday, with a
trailing cold front passing through the area.

Saturday night will feature cloudy skies and increasing rain
chances across the area. Rain will be likely both ahead of the
warm front as isentropic ascent overspreads the region, as well
as along and ahead cold front. As of right now, PoPs across the
region appear to be highest across eastern PA and northern NJ
(70-80%). They will decrease to 50-70% across the Delmarva and
southern NJ. Rain amounts look light, generally under 0.25". A
rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out though with
forecast soundings across the area indicating some modest
elevated instability. Rain chances will come to an end by Sunday
afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Breezy
northwesterly winds are expected behind the front Sunday, with
gusts in the 30-35 mph range possible. Temperatures both
Saturday night and Sunday look to be slightly above average
across the area.

The upper-low to our north will continue east away from the
area Sunday night through Monday night, with enhanced
northwesterly flow aloft becoming more westerly with time. A
weak impulse may move out of the Ohio Valley and into our area
on Tuesday, with flow remaining largely zonal thereafter. At the
surface, high pressure will build in behind Sunday`s cold
front, but at least subtle pressure falls at the surface are
possible Tuesday as the potential mid-level impulse moves
through. High pressure will build back in for Wednesday.

Sunday night through Monday night, partly to mostly clear skies
are likely across the area. Temperatures will be close to
seasonal norms for Sunday night, but below average Monday and
Monday night. Tuesday and Tuesday night will likely be mostly
cloudy. Some rainfall will be possible, but for now went with
the NBM for PoPs which are capped at slight chance for all but
the Delmarva and southern NJ, where they are around 30%. Mostly
cloudy skies look to continue into Wednesday, though rain
chances look slim. Temperatures look to remain near to slightly
below average during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. W-NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt,
increasing to 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts after 18Z.
Winds diminish prior to 00Z. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. W-NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in
the evening, then 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

Saturday night through Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions
are possible both in periods of light rain and in low ceilings.
Gusty northwest winds (20-30 kt) are possible on Sunday.

Sunday night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories in effect for all waters. West to
northwest winds will range from 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt
gusts with seas on the ocean generally 3 to 5 feet.

Winds on Delaware Bay will diminish to sub-SCA criteria this
evening, but strong winds will continue on the ocean waters.
Will keep SCA in effect until 6 pm for Delaware Bay and will
extend the SCA until 6 am Friday for the ocean waters.

Outlook...

Friday...Northwesterly wind diminishing through the day from
20-25 kt in the morning to 15-20 kt in the evening. Seas 2-4
feet. It is possible that an extension of the SCA will be
necessary for portions of the day on Friday, but confidence is
low at this time.

Friday night through Saturday...No marine headlines are
anticipated with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet.

Saturday night through Monday...Marine headlines will likely be
needed for part or all of this time period. Southerly wind
Saturday night will transition to west-northwesterly on Sunday.
Winds 25-30 kt are possible. While not likely at this time, a
period of gales cannot be entirely ruled out. Seas increase to
4-7 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper
NEAR TERM...MPS/RCM
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Cooper/MPS
MARINE...Cooper/MPS