941
FXUS61 KPHI 071716
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1216 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure system will remain near the area through today.
A trough is expected to cross the region tonight. High pressure
will return Saturday, followed by a strong cold front late
Sunday/Sunday night. Cold Canadian high pressure builds in for
the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For today, our high pressure system moves offshore as our next
low pressure system approaches from the west. Mid and high level
clouds will continue to filter in ahead of that low pressure
system but we do stay dry for most of today. Winds will
generally be out of the south today which will allow for some
warmer air to filter in. Highs today reach the upper 50s to mid
60s for most. Our southerly winds do pick up today with gusts
reaching 20-30 mph as the pressure gradient tightens between the
departing high pressure system and the approaching low pressure
system. There are some stronger winds aloft at 850mb but mixing
looks to be less efficient to bring down some of these stronger
winds due to it being more of a warm air advection set up.

In terms of our low pressure system, it mainly arrives tonight
with a cold front moving through the area. A stray shower cannot
be ruled out for our far NW zones late this afternoon and early
evening, but most of the precip is late this evening and
overnight. Initially, the rain looks more stratiform along the
front before trending more in the form of isolated to scattered
showers as the cold front passes through the area and weakens.
Rainfall totals look to be minimal closer to the coast with
upwards of a quarter of an inch west of the I-95 corridor. Lows
tonight are in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure moves back in quickly on Saturday behind the
system passing tonight. Clouds break for some sun and with a
warm air mass on its heals, temps should rise well into the 60s,
perhaps touching 70 south of Philly.

Low pressure with digging trough to our west begins to take
shape in the Ohio Valley Saturday night, but for us, its just
increasing clouds overnight. Southerly flow should also help
keep temps relatively mild, with most areas staying in the 40s.

Cloudy day Sunday with some rain arriving by midday and
continuing at times in the afternoon, though with the primary
low heading into the St. Lawrence Valley and a secondary trying
to develop overhead, models are struggling a bit on how quickly
precip blossoms and just how much we get. Some guidance keeps
rain going into the night while other models quickly end it by
evening. Either way, it should still be mild, with 60s for most
of the area during the day Sunday.

Cold front rushes through Sunday night whether or not precip
lingers, so the cooling trend will be commencing. However, the
coldest air will still be west of us by dawn Monday, with lows
Sunday night still mostly holding in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold advection will be ongoing on Monday and Monday night, but
the progress has slowed compared to earlier guidance, so Monday
now looks a bit milder, with temps more likely to return to the
low 50s for I-95 and points south/east. Passing upper level
disturbance(s) may bring spotty showers, or even flurries where
it gets cold enough fast enough, but significant precip is not
expected Monday into Monday evening.

Overnight Monday into Tuesday, windy and cold prevail as the
system wraps up to the northeast finally and the cold air moves
overhead. Should see widespread sub-freezing temps Monday night
with highs only back into the 40s Tuesday. Still can`t rule out
a sprinkle or flurry, especially in the higher terrain, but the
cold wind will be the main story with gusts probably 30 mph or
more.

Almost as fast as it starts, it ends, with warm advection
commencing Tuesday night while high pressure settles to our
south, allowing a zonal westerly flow to take hold with rapidly
rising heights as the upper trough moves out. Lows mostly in the
30s.

Wednesday and Thursday one or more cold fronts will attempt to
slip southward into the region, but they look moisture and
support starved, so little if any precip is likely. Highs
rebound to the 50s with overnight lows above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with increasing clouds, especially late in the
afternoon. South- southwest winds around 10- 15 kt with gusts up
to 20-30 kt in the afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR to start before CIGs drop down to MVFR as showers
move in between 04z-06z. The chance for IFR CIGs at all
terminals is around 25-30%, but kept prevailing MVFR for now. A
brief period of LLWS out of the SW remains for all terminals
between 00z and 06z. Winds generally out of the south/southwest
around 10 kt for the first half of the night, become for
westerly late as a front approaches and moves through. Moderate
confidence. VSBYs should stay at 6NM or higher, though cannot
rule out brief periods of MVFR VSBY (25-30% chance).

Saturday...MVFR CIGs possible (40-50%) through the late morning
before scattering out and clearing out for the rest of the day.
Northwest winds around 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...
VFR Saturday Night and this persists into early Sunday before
sub- VFR likely the bulk of Sunday with rain around. Conditions
improve back to VFR Sunday night and likely stay that way
through Tuesday, though isolated showers are possible during
this period. Winds will become gusty by Tuesday with gusts to 30
kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south-southwest winds this morning will increase to 15-25
kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. There is the
potential for some occasional gusts to 35 kt for the ocean
zones. Seas of 2-4 feet early, build up to 5-7 feet in the
evening. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all ocean
zones from this afternoon through Saturday morning. For the
Delaware Bay, a Small Craft Advisory goes from this afternoon
into tonight.

Outlook...

Mostly sub-SCA Saturday and Saturday night, but SCA conditions
begin returning Sunday and likely persist through Tuesday. In
fact, gales may develop Monday night and continue into Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A rather dry airmass remains in place for much of today.
Minimum relative humidity values are anticipated to be in the
30-40% range across much of the area today. By late afternoon
and into the evening, relative humidity values start to
increase above 40%. A south-southwest wind will be gusty today
through the afternoon where winds may occasionally gust up to 30
mph. Winds will begin to diminish some by the evening.

As a result, a Special Weather Statement has been issued for
Delaware, the Eastern Shore of Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania
through 6 PM today. We`ve reached out to our New Jersey partners
to see if fuels warrant an SPS there as well.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...Guzzo/Hoeflich/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...Guzzo/Hoeflich/RCM
MARINE...Guzzo/RCM
FIRE WEATHER...NWS PHI