491
FXUS61 KPHI 291152
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
652 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry high pressure will briefly build in through
tonight. A low pressure system and associated cold front will
approach the region Sunday with the cold front passing through
Sunday night. Low pressure will develop over the Southeast
Monday night before tracking northeast towards our area Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Another cold front will track through the
region Thursday night, with high pressure building back in
thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will be in control of our weather through the
near term forecast resulting in a period of tranquil conditions.

The center of the high continues to track eastward, building
out of the Ohio River Valley towards our region. Heading into
the daytime hours today, the center of the high will build in
right over our region. As a result, a dry and mostly sunny day
is expected with temperatures warming into the low 40s for the
afternoon. As the center of the high arrives overhead, winds
will decrease into the afternoon to around 5-10 mph.

The high then continues its eastward push, moving offshore late
this evening into tonight. As a result, some mid and high level
clouds from the next approaching system will begin to move into
the region by late this afternoon, with mostly cloudy skies by
tonight, though conditions remain dry. Lows look to be a few
degrees warmer with cloud coverage, mainly mid 20s to low 30s
expected. Light and variable winds will lead to little
difference between the air and apparent temperatures tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Subtle ridging aloft Saturday night will quickly give way to
mid- level height falls as a trough axis shifts eastward through
the Great Lakes on Sunday. The trough axis will pass near or
just north of the area Sunday night. Subtle height rises will
occur through Monday as the trough departs. At the surface, high
pressure will quickly depart to the east by Sunday morning as
the next storm system approaches from the west. A surface low
will track to our north through the day Sunday and into Sunday
evening with a trailing cold front passing through Sunday night.

Widespread, but mostly light precipitation will overspread the
area on Sunday. Along and especially northwest of I-95,
precipitation may start as a rain and snow mix if it begins
early enough in the morning, with all snow for the Poconos. As
temperatures warm through the day, precipitation should
transition to all rain. Some light snow accumulation will be
possible for the Poconos, and perhaps down into the I-78
corridor if snow begins early enough in the morning. The Pocono
Plateau is forecast to receive around 1" of snowfall, and a
brief dusting cannot be ruled out at lower elevations.

Regarding rainfall, amounts will generally be around
0.10-0.25", with isolated areas potentially seeing slightly more
or less. The greater amounts look to occur mostly across New
Jersey. Highs on Sunday look to be in the mid 30s for the
Poconos, the mid- upper 40s for the remainder of our eastern PA
counties and much of NJ, and the low-mid 50s across the Delmarva
and near the coast. A breezy SSW 10-15 mph wind will develop on
Sunday, with gusts near 25 mph at times.

Rain will come to an end across the area Sunday evening from
west to east with the passage of the cold front. Lows Sunday
night will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Monday will be dry
but chilly, with highs generally in the low to mid 40s (mid to
upper 30s north of I-78). For the Poconos, temperatures may
remain near to slightly above freezing. Breezy northwesterly
wind can be expected behind the front Sunday night into Monday,
with gusts to around 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night currently appears mostly dry with high pressure
over the area beginning to retreat northeastward. Low
temperatures should be in the 20s for most. Low pressure will be
developing over the southeastern US, and will begin to approach
the area by daybreak Tuesday. It currently appears that the low
will make its closest approach to the area Tuesday afternoon,
and begin departing to the northeast by Tuesday night.

Widespread precipitation is expected with this system. Right
now, have chance PoPs moving into portions of the Delmarva and
eastern PA during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. PoPs are
highest Tuesday afternoon and evening, in the 80-90% realm
areawide. Precipitation chances should wind down fairly quickly
overnight Tuesday night, with the entire region precipitation-
free by Wednesday morning.

Regarding the potential for accumulating snowfall: models are
in good agreement this afternoon regarding the track of the low
and its associated features. With that said, even subtle shifts
could have big impacts given it currently appears likely that
the rain to snow line will fall somewhere in our forecast area,
with accumulating snowfall increasingly likely for some.

In looking at the overall pattern, high pressure looks to
retreat northeastward with the approach of the low. This will
tend to favor onshore flow and marine influence affecting
temperature profiles for most, especially south of I-78.
Initially, snow or a rain and snow mix could be possible as far
south as the I-95 corridor, with all snow favored northwest of
the fall line, and all rain favored to the southeast of I-95.
Through the day Tuesday, the rain/snow line will likely shift
northwest. At the peak of precipitation coverage and intensity,
all snow is possible for the Poconos and into adjacent portions
of far northwestern NJ, a rain/snow mix will be favored
northwest of the fall line, and all rain elsewhere.

It is still too soon to get overly specific with amounts.
DESI/NBM probabilistic guidance maintains a ~50% chance for 1"
of snowfall or more, and around 30-40% chance for 2" of snowfall
or more for the Lehigh Valley, I-78 corridor, and points
northwest. Probability for 1" or more is around 80% for the
Poconos, and around 60-70% for 2" or more. These probabilities
drop sharply toward the I-95 corridor, which still has about a
10-20% chance of 1" or more of snowfall and near 0% chance for
2" or more. A cold, soaking rainfall is likely elsewhere,
including locations south of I-78. High temperatures could vary
widely on Monday, with temperatures mostly in the 30s northwest
of I-95, the low to mid 40s for most of the coastal plain, but
potentially near 50 degrees near the coast where the marine
influence is most felt.

After the low departs Tuesday night, dry conditions are
expected through Friday. A cold front looks to bring a
reinforcing shot of cold air Thursday night into Friday, but for
now it looks like precipitation chances will be quite slim.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR/SKC with a few high clouds late in the day. West-
northwest winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with increasing mid-level clouds. Light and
variable winds less than 5 knots, favoring a southeasterly
direction. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Sunday night...Restrictions likely in periods of
rain and low clouds. Gusty SSW winds. Rain will clear the area
Sunday evening, but low clouds could linger through most of the
night. Gusty WNW winds at night.

Monday through Monday night...Primarily VFR. Slight chance
(20%) of sub-VFR conditions in rain or snow late Monday night.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions expected in low
clouds and periods of rain/snow for the northwestern terminals,
and in rain elsewhere. Conditions should improve by late Tuesday
night.

Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 10 AM this
morning for all Atlantic Ocean coastal waters as westerly winds
continue to gust up to 25 knots with seas around 3-5 feet. A
few gusts up to 35 knots remain possible this morning for
coastal waters north of Manasquan Inlet off the coast of New
Jersey. Winds have decreased sufficiently along the Delaware Bay
so the SCA for the Bay will be allowed to expire though a few
gusts of 20-25 knots remain possible this morning.

Winds will continue to decrease into the daytime hours today so
following the end of the current SCA, conditions should be sub-
SCA criteria through tonight. Winds 10-15 knots with a few gusts
up to 20 knots, out of the west during the day today, briefly
becoming light and variable this evening, then turning southerly
and increasing once again tonight. Seas decreasing to 1-3 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...SCA conditions are expected beginning
Sunday with south winds increasing to 20-25 kt, with gusts near
30 kt. Winds will shift to northwest Sunday night, but remain
elevated. Winds should diminish by Monday afternoon. Seas 4-6
feet.

Monday night...No marine hazards anticipated with wind below 25
kt and seas below 5 feet.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions likely with east
winds increasing to near 25-30 kt and then becoming northwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds look to diminish Wednesday
afternoon. Seas 5-7 feet, also diminishing Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...AKL
SHORT TERM...Cooper/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Cooper/Staarmann
AVIATION...AKL/Cooper/Staarmann
MARINE...AKL/Cooper/Staarmann