599
FXUS61 KPHI 160516
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1216 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will depart by tonight. This will allow a warm
front, associated with a clipper system moving into the Great
Lakes, to lift into the region. This clipper system will pass
north of the region on Sunday, dragging a cold front across our
area. High pressure will then build down into the Plains on
Monday, and pass off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Weak low
pressure will affect the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Brief high pressure will return for Thursday. A cold front is
then forecast to move through the region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure departing the area presently as strong frontal
system approaches from the northwest. This system will first
drag a warm front across the region, accompanied by some showers
especially in the north through this evening, perhaps even
enough instability for an isolated thunderstorm. Another round
of showers possible (but less confident in) late in the night
into the early morning Sunday just before the cold front
arrives. Temps will be steady much of the night, possibly even
rising a bit overnight as warm front moves through. Lows 40s
north of Philly and 50s from Philly south.

Cold front blasts its way thru Sunday morning with winds
shifting northwest and increasing considerably. As mentioned,
could be a stray shower lingering Sunday morning ahead of the
front, but *generally* a dry day - second caveat, however, is
that spotty rain and *snow* showers may rotate southeastward
across the region during the afternoon and evening, especially
in the Poconos where small accumulations can`t be ruled out.

The main story, however, is the wind, which will howl after the
front passes through much of the day and into the evening on
Sunday. The latest guidance continues to trend slightly stronger
with the low level wind fields. The setup is dynamically and
kinematically similar to what we experienced on Tuesday, which
did end up a bit stronger than initially anticipated. Low level
wind fields will increase to around 35-40 kts in the mixed
layer, and up to 45 kts near the top of the mixed layer,
coinciding with strong CAA during the daytime hours as a mid-
level shortwave trough sweep through the region. This setup
should tend to favor winds over performing rather than not. Our
wind forecast was updated to indicate sustained northwest winds
20-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph.

A Wind Advisory was issued for the entire forecast area,
excluding the eastern shore of Maryland, beginning at 10 AM and
into evening. Low levels wind fields are a bit more marginal
across Maryland, so we are currently anticipating gusts to
remain closer to 35-40 mph in those areas, however an expansion
of the advisory may need to be considered in a future update.

Daytime highs will most likely be achieved during the morning
hours, then begin falling into the afternoon. Highs will range
from the low 60s in southern Delmarva to the 50s most elsewhere,
except 40s Poconos and other higher elevations.

Winds and spotty rain/snow shower chances fall Sunday night
(with snow shower chances lingering longest in the Poconos), but
remaining breezy and colder. Lows 20s Poconos, 30s most
everywhere else.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main story for Monday should be the winds. I say should,
because we`ll still need to keep an eye on any Lake Effect snow
showers reaching the southern Poconos. And that could become the
bigger story. But attm, the threat looks minimal.

So, west to northwest winds will remain quite noticeable on
Monday with gusts around 30-35 mph mph. Highs will also be
noticeably cooler compared to Sunday topping out in the upper
30s across the far northwest to around 50 south. Many will be in
the 40s.

The winds will begin to chill on Monday night and will remain
on the lighter side into Tuesday as surface high pressure builds
across the region. Monday night lows will solidly be in the 30s
(20s north and west and in the NJ Pines). Highs on Tuesday will
mainly be in 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak low pressure will pass through the region Tuesday night
and/or early Wednesday. The timing will need to be shored up in
the days to come. While some wintry precip is possible for the
higher elevations of the southern Poconos and far northwest New
Jersey, rain will be the dominant p-type.

High pressure will then build down into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley on Thursday and move offshore on Friday. Another
storm system is expected to approach Friday or Saturday, but
there are also timing and placement inconsistencies with this
one as well. So for now, will follow the NBM and carry chance
PoPs (30 to 50 percent) between late Thursday night and
Saturday, but put the focus of 60% PoPs on Friday night.
Temperatures will be warm enough to support rain throughout with
this system.

Temperatures will likely be below normal to normal Wednesday
and Thursday, and rise to above normal levels Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...Some brief MVFR conditions in RA through 08Z
or so. VFR otherwise, W-SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W-NW 10 to
15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts prior to 12Z. Moderate confidence.

Today...VFR. Some brief SHSN may affect KRDG/KABE with sub-VFR
conditions, but chances are too low to warrant inclusion in the
TAF. W-NW winds 20 to 25 kt with 35 to 40 kt gusts. Moderate
confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR. W-NW winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...VFR. W-NW winds 15 to 20 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt, possibly up to 35 kts Monday, diminishing to
less than 10 kt Monday night.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...VFR Tuesday. Sub-VFR possible
Tuesday night in SHRA.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds increasing ahead of approaching low pressure
system overnight will result in widespread Small Craft Advisory
conditions developing tonight into early Sunday morning. Spotty
showers and an isolated thunderstorm also can`t be ruled out
during this time. Seas mainly 3-5 feet.

Strong cold front blasts offshore early Sunday morning, with
gales taking over by late morning onward across all waters.
Gale Warning in effect all waters. Winds may gust to 40 kts with
seas 4-7 feet.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...The Gale Warning will continue
into Monday for Delaware Bay and the Atlantic coastal waters,
though winds may be sub-gale at times, especially across the
Bay. West to northwest winds will range from 20 to 30 kt with 35
kt gusts. Winds will begin to diminish Monday afternoon.

Monday night...Lingering Small Craft Advisory conditions,
diminishing late.

Tuesday through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The weather has turned dry again, and we are expecting some
strong gusty winds and low humidity on Sunday in the wake of the
cold front. Think RH`s stay above 30 percent, but just barely
across the Delmarva. Northwest winds will be sustained around
20-25 mph with peak gusts near 40-50 mph. Will coordinate with
partners regarding any need for special weather statements.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>022-027.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for NJZ014-023>026.
DE...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for DEZ001>003.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kruzdlo/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...Kruzdlo
LONG TERM...Kruzdlo
AVIATION...Kruzdlo/MPS/RCM/Staarmann
MARINE...Kruzdlo/RCM/Staarmann
FIRE WEATHER...