108
FXUS61 KPHI 030808
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
308 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak coastal low will slide to the south and east today with a
cold front affecting the area late this evening. High pressure
returns through the middle of the week as the next cold front
moves through Wednesday evening. High pressure returns for a
short stint through the end of the week with a stronger system
anticipated to impact the region over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Seasonably cool and insignificant weather is expected through
Tuesday. Some light rain will impact areas mainly southeast of I-95
through midday, then a cold front will sweep through this evening
with dry and breezy conditions expected tonight through Tuesday.

A trough axis will approach and pass across the region during the
day, then move out to sea into tonight with subsidence and strong
quasi zonal flow remaining in place through Tuesday in its wake. At
the surface, a developing coastal low to our south early today will
push out to sea through tonight. High pressure will build to our
southwest tonight into Tuesday, resulting in a WNW gradient locally.

Clouds will continue increasing in coverage and lowering through
this morning across the area, and a mostly cloudy day is forecast.
Some light rain associated with the developing coastal low to our
south will continue pushing slowly northward along the coastal plain
through the morning before diminishing in intensity and shifting
offshore into the afternoon. Guidance continues to indicate a low
chance of some additional showers developing a bit farther inland
near the I-95 corridor around midday. This activity, if it develops,
would be associated more with the northern stream trough rather than
the coastal low to our south. Moisture will be quite limited in this
region, so any showers that do develop would probably just be
sprinkles to perhaps a couple hundredths of an inch of rainfall at
most. Closer to the southern NJ and Delmarva coast, rainfall amounts
could reach into the 0.10-0.20" range.

Highs today will be mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds mainly
south to southwesterly around 5-10 mph (more variable in direction
for Delmarva).

A cold front will sweep through the region and offshore this evening
between about 5-8 PM. Winds will shift abruptly to the WNW and
increase to around 10-20 mph during FROPA and in the wake of the
front. Some brief gusts near 30-35 mph cannot be ruled out with
FROPA, but the cold advection isn`t overly impressive. So boundary
layer mixing of wind gusts should not be too efficient. The post
frontal airmass isn`t particularly cold, but will be a bit drier
with dewpoints falling quickly into the 30s in its wake.
Temperatures will gradually fall into the low to mid 40s across the
area by Tuesday morning.

We`ll remain in a post frontal regime on Tuesday under sunny skies.
Low level wind fields will be diminishing some, but WNW winds should
remain around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible at times.
Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet sensible weather will be the theme through the Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Largely southerly flow will lead to light warm air
advection and temps warming warming into the mid 60s. High pressure
at the surface will weaken as the flow aloft remains fairly zonal
persists through the day.

Heading into Wednesday evening, a mid level trough develops
over the Great Lakes and starts to take on a sort of clipper
track quickly pushing through the north east dragging a cold
front towards the Mid Atlantic. This could bring some light rain
towards the Poconos Wednesday evening. No wintry precip is
expected.

Weak ridging builds in on Thursday representing the calm before the
pattern starts becoming more active towards the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Friday the general pattern will be that there`s a mid level
trough over the central CONUS. This sets up a more active pattern
with several waves moving through the region. Ensemble cluster
analysis points to several different potential timelines and or
intensities of these low pressure systems so any specific details at
this time are a bit unclear. However the general idea is that we`ll
likely be impacted by several systems in succession with showers.
For the time being, the forecast remains consistent with the NBM`s
blend of guidance resulting in the highest chances of showers Friday
night and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...VFR. Mainly calm winds. Ceilings will begin to lower,
with some light rain potentially impacting MIV/ACY by 12Z. High
confidence.

Today...Overall prevailing VFR conditions expected. Some light rain
will impact KACY and KMIV through 16Z or so, though visibility
should remain largely VFR, then MVFR ceilings anticipated due to low
stratus between 16-21Z. A few brief showers and brief MVFR ceilings
possible for the I-95 terminals between roughly 15-19Z, though
probability of this is low. Light and variable winds becoming S to
SW around 5-10 kts. A cold front will cross the region around 00Z,
with winds abruptly shifting WNW and increasing to 10-15 kts with
gusts near 20-25 kts possible. High confidence in overall prevailing
conditions, but low confidence on timing of any restrictions and
rain.

Tonight...VFR. WNW winds will remain around 10 kts much of the
night, with gusts near 20-25 kts at times. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. WNW winds around 10-15 kts with gusts near 20-25 kts
much of the day. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

Wednesday night...VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Thursday through Friday...VFR. No significant weather expected.
&&

.MARINE...
Through 12Z...VFR. Mainly calm winds. Ceilings will begin to lower,
with some light rain potentially impacting MIV/ACY by 12Z. High
confidence.

Today...Overall prevailing VFR conditions expected. Some light rain
will impact KACY and KMIV through 16Z or so, though visibility
should remain largely VFR, then MVFR ceilings anticipated due to low
stratus between 16-21Z. A few brief showers and brief MVFR ceilings
possible for the I-95 terminals between roughly 15-19Z, though
probability of this is low. Light and variable winds becoming S to
SW around 5-10 kts. A cold front will cross the region around 00Z,
with winds abruptly shifting WNW and increasing to 10-15 kts with
gusts near 20-25 kts possible. High confidence in overall prevailing
conditions, but low confidence on timing of any restrictions and
rain.

Tonight...VFR. WNW winds will remain around 10 kts much of the
night, with gusts near 20-25 kts at times. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. WNW winds around 10-15 kts with gusts near 20-25 kts
much of the day. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...SCA remains in effect for wind gusts of 25-30 kt and seas
up to 5 feet.

Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected.

Wednesday through Thursday...SCA conditions likely with wind gusts
up to 30 kt and seas building up to 6 feet.

Thursday night through Friday...SCA conditions possible late Friday,
but largely no marine headlines expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Deal/Staarmann
MARINE...Deal/Staarmann