026
FXUS61 KPHI 022004
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
304 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As low pressure moves farther away from our area through this
evening, high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest late
tonight and Wednesday. A strong cold front crosses our area during
Thursday, followed by high pressure later Thursday night into
Friday. An area of low pressure is currently forecast to track just
to our south an east later Friday into Saturday, followed by a cold
front later Sunday. A weak area of high pressure then builds nearby
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM, the only remaining Winter Weather Advisory is for
Sussex county NJ where observations of freezing rain remain.
The Winter Weather Advisory for the Poconos has been allowed to
expire as temperatures have risen above freezing with a
transition to rain occurring and also the precipitation quickly
coming to an end.

The previous discussion below remains on track:

Our low pressure system is currently making its closest approach
to the area. By tonight, the low will be departing off to the
northeast.

The transition zone has made its way into the Poconos and NW NJ.
Highs this afternoon will range from near freezing in the
Poconos, mid to upper 30s near and north of I-78, upper 30s to
near 40 NW of I-95, low 40s along the I-95 corridor, and then
mid 40s to mid 50s for areas south and east of I-95.

The widespread precipitation with this system is continuing to
come to an end from west to east. By the early evening hours,
most of the precipitation will be over.

Once the low departs this evening, a high pressure system will
build in from the southwest. This will lead to drier conditions
through tonight. Lows tonight are in the 20s for most, which may
lead to some black ice issues where any slushy snow melt
refreezes on roadways (especially north of I-78).

Our high pressure system remains in control for Wednesday with dry
conditions. It will be a colder day with highs in the mid 30s to mid
40s. A breezy wind out of the northwest in the morning at 15-20 mph
will lessen through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Following a subtle upper-level ridge axis, enhanced southwesterly
flow aloft will begin to overspread the area into Thursday as a
trough digs southeastward over portions of Ontario and eventually
Quebec. The trough axis will pass to the north/glance the region
Thursday. Subtle height rises will follow with the flow aloft
becoming more zonal Thursday night. At the surface, high pressure
will build in from the west on Wednesday. A surface low will pass
well to the north of the area on Thursday, however a strong trailing
cold front moves through Thursday. Wednesday night will feature
increasing clouds from northwest to southeast as the cold front
begins to approach the region. Lows will be mostly in the 20s.

Thursday will feature more clouds ahead of and with a strong cold
front. Moisture looks to be rather limited with this cold front and
the main lift also slides by to our north. There is some chance
though, low, that a few snow showers occur with the front across
mostly the Poconos. A west-northwest wind increases and turns gusty
(gusts up to 30 mph) during the day Thursday before diminishing at
night. The notable breeze will add to the chill factor. Highs
generally in the 30s northwest of I-95 and 40s to the southeast. As
the winds diminish Thursday night, temperatures look to bottom out
in the teens for many areas with even some single digits in parts of
the Poconos.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Synoptic Overview...An initial zonal flow aloft gives way to a
shortwave trough crossing our area later Friday into Saturday.
The flow aloft may then undergo amplification across the East
later in the weekend into early next week. At the surface, high
pressure departs to start Friday then low pressure develops and
slides to our south before it shifts farther offshore into
Saturday. A cold front arrives then later Sunday with weak high
pressure nearby Monday into Tuesday.

For Friday and Saturday...High pressure is centered over our area to
start within an initial zonal flow aloft. A shortwave trough however
looks to quickly arrive later in the day Friday and especially
Friday night. This feature does not appear to sharpen much as it
arrives given the more zonal flow aloft ahead of it, although this
could change if additional energy can phase with it. A cold and very
dry air mass is forecast to be in place, and this may hinder the
northward placement of a precipitation shield. Surface low pressure
is forecast to develop and track to our south as a result and tend
to be a quick mover. Given the current synoptic setup, the highest
probability of precipitation is across the southern to eastern areas
(Delmarva to southeastern New Jersey). Some snow or even a wintry
mix is possible across these areas with even some change to rain,
with snow then as the main precipitation type farther north.
Something to watch however is whether a zone of frontogenesis or
strengthening frontogenesis occurs resulting in a banding feature
north to northwest of the surface low. This would tend to occur if
the mid level wave sharpens more than currently forecast. The
details will be determined by the track and strength of the system
which will then determine the precipitation types and amounts. Given
the uncertainty with these (finer) details no major changes were
made to the National Blend of Model (NBM) guidance. Rather cold
Friday with high ranging from mid to upper 20s far north to upper
30s far south. It turns milder then Saturday in the wake of the
system, however still below average.

For Sunday through Tuesday...An upper-level trough across eastern
Canada may undergo amplification south and eastward through about
Monday before weakening occurs. Another piece of energy dropping
down into the Mid-Mississippi Valley may then sharpen the trough
eastward again Tuesday with surface low pressure potentially
approaching our area during Tuesday. Quite a bit of uncertainty with
the evolution of the features within the larger scale trough,
therefore just some slight chance PoPs (20 percent) in the forecast
as of now at times Sunday night through Tuesday. Temperatures
currently are forecast to be on the cold side, especially early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...All TAF locations are IFR as rain continues
across the area. Winds vary from site to site, with some sites
northeast, others northwest, and even southeast. Speeds are
generally light 5-10 knots or less, except at ACY where winds
are gusting 20-25 knots. Wind direction will settle into a
northwest direction later this afternoon for all locations.
Moderate to high confidence.

Tonight...Conditions will improve to MVFR from west to east
between 23z-03z, then VFR between 02-06Z. Northwest winds will
increase to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots possible.
High confidence, moderate confidence on timing.

Wednesday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds 5-10 knots.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR.

Thursday...VFR. West-northwest wind gusts 20-25 knots during the
day, then diminishing at night.

Friday and Saturday...A period of sub-VFR conditions possible along
with some rain/snow (highest probability currently south and east of
KPHL).

Sunday...Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will continue to increase this afternoon. Winds
will gust to 25-30 knots and turn to be out of the north to
northwest by this evening. Occasional gusts to 35 knots are
possible on the ocean zones tonight. Seas will reach 3-6 feet
tonight as well. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters already and starts at
3 PM for the Delaware Bay. The SCA will continue through
tonight for all coastal waters.

For Wednesday, the Small Craft Advisory on the Delaware Bay will
end at 6 AM while the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters go through
1 PM. Winds and seas will continue to lessen through the day
Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small
Craft Advisory criteria.

Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions probable.

Friday through Sunday...The conditions are anticipated to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Widespread moderate to heavy precipitation is expected today.
A few daily precipitation records could be challenged. Records
for our climate sites are listed below:

Record Precipitation (Rainfall)
                       December 2
Site                  Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)        0.86"/1934
AC Airport (ACY)       1.03"/1996
AC Marina (55N)        1.18"/1929
Georgetown (GED)       1.11"/1974
Mount Pocono (MPO)     3.56"/1996
Philadelphia (PHL)     1.48"/1986
Reading (RDG)          1.29"/1981
Trenton (TTN)          2.13"/1986
Wilmington (ILG)       1.27"/1991

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NJZ001.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...Gorse/MJL
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse/Robertson
MARINE...Gorse/Guzzo
CLIMATE...PHI