390
FXUS61 KPHI 180535
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1235 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will slowly move across the Canadian
Maritimes tonight. The center of high pressure slides mostly by
to our south by later Tuesday, then weak low pressure tracks
eastward from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into
Wednesday. A warm front lifts north across our region later
Thursday night and Friday, followed by a weak cold front Friday
night. A secondary cold front may move through later Saturday
followed by high pressure later Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Tonight, wind will diminish to less than 10 mph or so with
clearing skies. Lows are forecast to be in the mid 20s to low
30s across the region, though if winds can drop to less than 5
mph, especially in outlying areas, radiational cooling may
result in locally colder temperatures.

For Tuesday, high pressure will build in briefly ahead of an
approaching weak low pressure system. Skies will start out mostly
clear in the morning with increasing clouds throughout the day.
Another seasonably colder day with highs about 5-10 degrees below
climo, only warming into the 40s. The weak low will approach the
region from the southwest, possibly bringing some light rain late
afternoon and early evening mainly across the Delmarva and extreme
southeast PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold air remains in place Tuesday night. Winds do become on the
lighter side Tuesday night due to a more relaxed pressure gradient.
The main story Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be a weak
low pressure system moving in from the west. This low pressure
system is looking to take a more southerly track. This keeps the
better potential for more rain towards Delmarva, southern New
Jersey, and parts of southeast Pennsylvania. However, the recent
trends among model guidance has been for more precipitation
extending northward. PoPs near and north of I-78 are around
30-60% with 60% closer to I-78 and closer to 30% in our
northernmost zones. For the precipitation from this event, the
higher totals are expected to be in Delmarva and lower totals
towards northwest New Jersey and the Poconos. Upwards of half an
inch of rain is forecasted for most of Delmarva with near a
quarter of an inch in parts of southern New Jersey. Beyond this,
precip looks to be a tenth of an inch or less. There will be
dry air in place to start that the precip will have to overcome
which may impact totals depending on how quickly the column
becomes saturated. One other key point is that there is some
wintry precip forecasted for the Poconos and Sussex and Morris
county in New Jersey. Right now, it looks to be some light snow
or a mix of rain/snow. Minimal snow accumulation is expected
with the highest totals being near or below a half inch of snow
in the Poconos. Probabilities show a 40-60% potential for a half
inch or more of snow in the Poconos and around 20% of one inch
of snow in the Poconos. Lows Tuesday night are in the upper 20s
to upper 30s.

The precip ends Wednesday morning as the low departs offshore and a
weak high pressure system remains in place. Clouds remain stubborn
Wednesday with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Highs on Wednesday are
in the mid 40s to mid 50s. We stay mainly dry Wednesday night into
Thursday with just the potential for a stray shower Thursday but
PoPs were kept below mentionable at this time. Lows Wednesday night
are in the low 30s to low 40s. Highs on Thursday are in the mid 40s
to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
In the long term period, we do have more opportunities for
precipitation and temperatures moderate.  Our unsettled weather
starts Thursday night as a warm front lifts northward leading to
some showers being possible Thursday night into Friday morning. The
better potential for any rain associated with this system looks to
be ahead of the cold front during the day Friday into Friday night.
The cold front will pass through the area overnight Friday. Due to
the warm front Thursday night, we do trend warmer Friday with highs
in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The unsettled weather continues into Saturday with another potential
for rain during the day Saturday into Saturday night. This is with a
secondary cold front. Overall details are less certain with this
cold front due to timing, track, and intensity of the low pressure
system that this front is attached to. Right now, PoPs are at slight
chance to chance for this time period. It looks drier on Sunday as a
high pressure system tries to build in. For highs on Saturday, they
are in the mid 50s to mid 60s and mid 40s to upper 50s on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...VFR ceilings at KTTN, KPNE/KPHL north and west are
expected to scatter out overnight. West-northwest winds 8-12 knots
diminishing some. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...VFR with increasing and lower clouds. West- northwest
winds increasing to 8-12 knots through the morning, then
becoming west- southwest later this afternoon and diminishing.
Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night...VFR ceilings lower to MVFR after 05z then to
IFR toward daybreak. Rain develops from west to east, mostly in
the 03z-06z timeframe. The rain should be rather light to start
with no visibility restrictions, then visibilities lower
overnight. Some snow may mix in at KRDG and KABE overnight.
Winds becoming light and variable overall. Low confidence in the
timing details and if snow occurs at KRDG and KABE.

Wednesday...IFR or MVFR ceilings in the morning improve to VFR. Some
rain near and east of KPHL ends during the morning. Light and
variable winds becoming north to northeast around 5 knots. Low
confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday and Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions and some rain possible.

&&

.MARINE...
The winds have diminished some more and therefore cancelled the
Small Craft Advisory for Delaware Bay. Offshore buoys still gusting
up to 30 knots and therefore extended the Small Craft Advisory for
the Delware and southern New Jersey coastal waters to 6 AM today and
until 10 AM for the northern New Jersey coastal waters. Thereafter,
the conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday...The conditions are anticipated
to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ450-
     451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse/Guzzo
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich/MJL
SHORT TERM...Guzzo
LONG TERM...Guzzo
AVIATION...Gorse/Guzzo
MARINE...Gorse/Guzzo