737
FXUS61 KPHI 072106
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
406 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will bring some needed rain to the region
tonight. High pressure briefly returns on Saturday, followed by
a strong cold front Sunday night. Cold Canadian high pressure
builds in and takes control for the bulk of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clouds are increasing ahead of a frontal system that will move
through tonight. The rest of today will be dry, with gusty south
winds around 15-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH and cloud cover
increasing.

For tonight, a warm front will lift through with a cold front not
far behind. This will result in some rain moving through overnight,
though not expecting any significant impacts. Rain moves in to the
Lehigh Valley and Poconos after 7 PM, gradually moving west to east,
and should be offshore by daybreak tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will
be around a tenth to quarter of an inch along and west of the I-95
corridor with amounts up to a tenth south and east of I-95.
Temperatures tonight won`t fall much, only getting into the low to
mid 50s.

An initial cold front moves offshore with a secondary front moving
through on Saturday Night. This initial front won`t really have a
cooler airmass with it though, allowing highs to get into the 60s
under partly cloudy skies. Saturday certainly looks like the pick of
the weekend as it should stay dry before a stronger system and
colder airmass moves in on Sunday and for the start of next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The overall pattern through the remainder of the weekend and
into early next week will remain active, with the primary focus
remaining on the surface low bringing periods of rain to the
area on Sunday. The low begins to take shape in the Ohio Valley
Saturday night as an upper level trough begins to dig across the
central United States. For us though, its just increasing
clouds overnight. Southerly flow should also help keep temps
relatively mild, with most areas staying in the 40s.

Cloudy day Sunday with some rain arriving by midday and
continuing at times in the afternoon, though with the primary
low heading into the St. Lawrence Valley and a secondary trying
to develop overhead, models are struggling a bit on how quickly
precip blossoms and just how much we get. Some guidance keeps
rain going into the night while other models quickly end it by
evening. Either way, it should still be mild, with 60s for most
of the area during the day Sunday.

Cold front rushes through Sunday night whether or not precip
lingers, so the cooling trend will be commencing. However, the
coldest air will still be west of us by dawn Monday, with lows
Sunday night still mostly holding in the 40s.

How fast the bulk of the cold air advection arrives will
determine just exactly how warm we will get on Monday in the
wake of the cold front passage. Latest guidance suggests that
highs look to be pretty early in the day, with most locations
just making it to around 50 before temperatures fall in the
afternoon. Passing upper level disturbance(s) may bring spotty
showers, or even flurries where it gets cold enough fast enough
(most likely in the higher terrain in the Poconos), but
significant precip is not expected Monday and Monday night. The
cold air will be firmly in place by Monday night with lows below
freezing expected across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The focus for the long term will be on high pressure dominating
our weather pattern but a series of a weak disturbances may try
to bring some precip to the area times, most likely near/north
of I-78.

With cold air in place to start the period, highs only back
into the 40s Tuesday. It will also feel colder with wind gusts
probably 30 mph or more. Warm air advection returns Tuesday
night while high pressure settles to our south, allowing a zonal
westerly flow to take hold with rapidly rising heights as the
upper trough moves out. Lows mostly in the 30s.

Wednesday through Friday one or more cold fronts will attempt
to slip southward into the region, but they look moisture and
support starved, so little if any precip is likely. Highs
rebound to the 50s with overnight lows above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with increasing clouds. South-southwest winds around 10-
15 kt with gusts up to 20-30 kt in the afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR to start before CIGs drop down to MVFR as showers move
in between 04z-06z. The chance for IFR CIGs at all terminals is
around 25-30%, but kept prevailing MVFR for now. A brief period of
LLWS out of the SW remains for all terminals between 00z and 06z.
Winds generally out of the south/southwest around 10 kt for the
first half of the night, become for westerly late as a front
approaches and moves through. Moderate confidence. VSBYs should stay
at 6NM or higher, though cannot rule out brief periods of MVFR VSBY
(25-30% chance).

Saturday...MVFR CIGs possible (40-50%) through the late morning
before scattering out and clearing out for the rest of the day.
Northwest winds around 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR conditions expected.

Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions likely at times with periods of rain
expected (60-80% chance of rain).

Monday...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR conditions remain possible with
a lingering chance for rain (15-25% chance).

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR. Gusty winds up to 30 knots possible
during the daytime hours each day.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all marine zones through
tonight. Wind gusts will be around 25 to 30 kt with seas 4
to 7 feet.

The Small Craft Advisory expires at 3 AM for Delaware Bay and 10 AM
for the ocean zones as winds and seas quickly diminish in the wake
of a cold front. Once the SCA expires, no further marine headlines
are expected. After 10 AM, winds will be out of the northwest around
10-15 kt with seas 2 to 4 feet.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions begin to develop with
increasing seas and winds, especially by Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday...SCA conditions expected throughout
the period. Gales possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry airmass is in place for today, with minimum RHs around 30-40%
this afternoon and wind gusts 25 to 35 MPH out of the southwest.
Special Weather Statements remain in place for all of our PA, DE,
and MD zones.

A wetting rain is expected for all of our PA zones, northern DE,
most of the Eastern Shore, and most of New Jersey tonight. This,
combined with widespread rain on Sunday, should alleviate fire
weather concerns for the foreseeable future.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/Hoeflich
MARINE...AKL/Hoeflich
FIRE WEATHER...Hoeflich