166
FXUS61 KPHI 191859
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
159 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight and Thursday. A weak cold front
moves through during Friday, which then stalls near Delmarva on
westward. Low pressure along this front tracks near our area
Friday night into Saturday, then high pressure builds in for
Sunday. A cold front crosses our area later Monday followed by
high pressure gradually arriving during Tuesday. More unsettled
for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some spotty drizzle lingering across southern NJ this afternoon
continues to gradually dissipate. Northeast winds persist,
keeping it cloudy and cool.

High pressure initially centered over the lower Great Lakes this
evening will drift eastward towards New England by early Thursday.
Meanwhile a frontal boundary will linger near Delmarva with some
weak impulses moving through aloft in the upper level flow. This
will tend to keep skies mostly cloudy, however it should remain
mainly dry. The exception will be across Delmarva where there
could be some spotty drizzle. Overnight lows will vary from the
upper 20s over NE PA and NW NJ to the 35 to 40 degree range
over Delmarva as well as SE PA and adjacent portions of southern
NJ.

High pressure will ridges in more prominently during the day
Thursday. A light northeasterly low-level flow in place along
with surface high pressure may keep quite a bit of cloud cover
in place, especially across the southern half of the region.
That said, breaks in the clouds are possible across the rest of
the region. While some sprinkles cannot be ruled out across Delmarva,
the area should be precipitation-free. Afternoon temperatures
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will slide east off the coast Thursday night, with
warm advection bringing clouds back to the region. Lows in the 30s
north, 40s central and south.

Wave of low pressure moving east toward the region will keep it
pretty cloudy on Friday. However, warm advection precip may yet hold
off until evening, but have slight chance to low chance POPs late in
the day. Despite clouds, expect highs to rise back into the 50s for
most of the area, except 40s Poconos and near 60 southern Delaware.

Most guidance has rain, albeit light, spreading eastward across the
region by Friday night as the aforementioned weak wave moves almost
straight toward us. An approaching cold front from the northwest and
associated upper trough may try to divert the system more across our
southern zones, while a later arrival of said front/shortwave may
cause it to veer further north, but for now have likely to
categorical POPs most of the CWA except far north. Lows 30s Poconos
but 40s pretty much everywhere else... near 50 immediate coast.

System pulls eastward out to sea on Saturday, with any rain early
ending and clouds breaking for some sun toward evening as a cold
front shifts southward across the region. That said, the wind flow
doesn`t look especially strong so the low level moisture may
struggle to be eroded away. Highs similar to Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds eastward into the region Saturday night and
mostly remains in control through Monday night as it slowly builds
eastward, eventually passing off the New England/Mid-Atlantic coast.
A weak front might spark a few showers Sunday evening, but odds look
pretty low on this.  Cold advection push will be noticeable Saturday
night and Sunday, with lows in the 20s and low 30s, followed by
highs in the 40s to low 50s. Temps moderate slowly thereafter, with
lows mostly above freezing (but still 30s) on Sunday night and highs
mostly in the 50s Monday, near 60 Delmarva. A still milder night is
likely Monday night just ahead of the next system, with lows in the
mid 30s to low 40s.

Some guidance is faster than others as far as spreading rain into
the region with the next system, which will be a low pressure
heading northeast through the Mid-west towards the Great Lakes
Tuesday and Wednesday, but most guidance has rain across the region
Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday may end up a smidge warmer than
Monday if the rain is delayed, but a milder night is likely with the
rain on Tuesday night, with lows mostly 40s, near 50 coast and
southern Delaware.

Guidance is also a little uncertain on when rain ends Wednesday, but
most models have it out of here by day`s end. A mild day looks
likely as there is no initial push of cool air behind Tuesday
night`s system, with highs likely to be near or above 60 in much of
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...Lingering IFR ceilings gradually improve to MVFR
by mid afternoon with VFR possible later in the afternoon.
North/northeast winds 5-8 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Becoming mainly VFR through the evening except around
MIV and ACY where MVFR cigs could persist longer. Winds
generally north to northeast around 5 knots.

Thursday...VFR. Winds veering from the NE to SE through the day,
around 5 kts or less. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR likely.

Friday...VFR likely most of day, but sub-VFR possible with rain
possibly arriving late.

Friday night...Sub-VFR with rain likely.

Saturday...Starting sub-VFR with lingering rain possible, then VFR
returning.

Saturday night through Monday...VFR likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory in effect for portions of the southern
coastal waters south of Great Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island, DE,
including the lower Delaware Bay. Wind gusts up to 25 kts from
the NE to NW are possible this afternoon and into the early
evening. Overnight, winds diminish to around 10 kts generally
out of the north through Thursday. Seas remain 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Sub-SCA likely. Rain likely
Friday night.

Saturday...SCA possible with gusts up to around 25 kts.

Saturday night through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions likely.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ431-
     453>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...MJL/RCM
MARINE...MJL/RCM