143
FXUS61 KPHI 292035
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
335 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry high pressure will briefly build in through
tonight. A low pressure system and associated cold front will
approach the region Sunday with the cold front passing through
Sunday night. Low pressure will develop over the Southeast
Monday night before tracking northeast towards our area Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Another cold front will track through the
region Thursday night, with high pressure building back in
thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid-level trough currently centered over the Northern Plains
will track eastward towards the area tonight. The trough axis
will lift northeastward Sunday, passing to the north of our area
Sunday afternoon. H5 heights will fall Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon before subtle rises begin as the trough axis
lifts away from the region. At the surface, high pressure in
control tonight will quickly shift east Sunday morning as a
subtle warm front approaches and moves through the area. A cold
front trailing a low pressure system moving eastward through
southern portions of Ontario and Quebec will track through the
region Sunday evening.

A dry night is in store with increasing clouds. With the cold
airmass in place, temperatures will still fall into the upper
20s for most, with low-mid 30s for the Coastal Plain and the
urban corridor. Temperatures will probably bottom out earlier in
the night than typical, with a slow rebound towards sunrise as
subtle warm advection begins.

Light precipitation will begin to move into western portions of
our area during the morning hours, and spread across the entire
area by afternoon. Most locations will see a cold rain. Across
the Poconos and perhaps into portions of far northwestern NJ,
precipitation is expected to start as light snow, changing to a
rain and snow mix during the afternoon. All precipitation will
come to an end with the passage of the cold front during the
afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall amounts look to generally
be in the 0.15-0.25" range. Snow accumulations of 0.5-1" are
possible in the Poconos.

Afternoon highs will be in the mid-upper 30s for the Poconos,
low- mid 40s elsewhere northwest of I-95, and upper 40s to near
50 southeast of I-95. For the Coastal Plain, temperatures could
climb into the low 50s. It will also be breezy, with south-
southwesterly winds gusting to 20-25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front exits off to the east Sunday night with just the
potential for a lingering rain shower mainly near the coastal areas
early. Through the night we trend drier with decreasing clouds as a
high pressure system builds in from the west. Lows Sunday night will
be in the mid 20s to low 30s. It will also be breezy Sunday night
with northwest wind gusting to 20-30 mph. This will lead to wind
chill values in the teens to low 20s.

On Monday, we are dry with the high pressure system overhead. The
high does start to move off to the northeast late Monday into Monday
night. As the high departs, we see an increase in clouds by the
second half of the day ahead of our next system. Highs on Monday are
in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Winds will also gradually lessen through
the day Monday and by Monday night winds are 5-10 mph out of the
north before turning more out of the east through the night.

Speaking of Monday night, our next system arrives Monday night into
Tuesday morning. There will be a low developing over the
southeastern US and the high pressure system will retreat off to the
northeast. As the high pressure system retreats, the low moves
northeast. This low will make its closest approach to the area
Tuesday afternoon, and begin departing to the northeast by Tuesday
night.

In terms of the details with this system, widespread precipitation
is expected. There are chance PoPs (30-40%) starting overnight
Monday with the highest PoPs being Tuesday afternoon into the
evening at around 80-90%. The precipitation ends from west to east
pretty quickly Tuesday night as the low moves off to the northeast.

For the precipitation accumulation, the general QPF has been
trending upwards with the system. Also, the system is moving faster
which has it coming in earlier. Due to the earlier arrival time,
there is the potential for light snow at the onset for much of the
area and as far south as parts of Kent county Delaware and Talbot
county Maryland. In New Jersey, this could result in some light snow
at the onset as far southeast as Cape May. All of that said, this
light snow will result in minimal accumulation and not last long as
the low draws closer to the area.

Through the day Tuesday, the onshore flow and warm marine influence
will impact the temperature profiles. By daybreak Tuesday, the
rain/snow line is near or NW of I-95. As the warmer air continues to
filter in, the rain/snow line may get as far NW as the Lehigh Valley
by Tuesday afternoon. For perspective on this, the temperatures for
highs on Tuesday are near freezing in the Poconos, upper 30s in the
Lehigh Valley, near 40 degrees along the I-95 corridor, and in the
mid 40s to near 50 in Delmarva and along the coastal areas. Although
areas may start as snow, it does not appear that it will last for
much of the area. Right now, the Poconos have the best potential at
an all snow event from this system.

For the accumulation, the potential is increasing for plowable snow
in the Poconos and areas NW of I-78. As you head, south and east of
I-78, the potential for plowable snow quickly decreases. Also,
outside of mainly the Poconos, the snow that falls will then be
melting through the day with the warm air moving further inland. The
areas that see all rain or a change to rain will have a good soaking
rain.

Once the low departs Tuesday night, a high pressure system will
build in from the southwest. This will lead to drier conditions
through the night. Lows Tuesday night are in the 20s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During the long term period, we have a high pressure system in
control for the middle and end of the week. It is colder with highs
on Wednesday and Thursday in the 30s and 40s. A cold front does look
to cross the area Thursday into Thursday night. As the cold front
passes through, there is the potential for an isolated snow shower.
The main factor with this cold front will be the reinforcement of
the cold air. By Friday, highs are in the low 30s to low 40s for
most. Our next system looks to arrive late Friday into Saturday
bringing another potential for widespread precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 00Z...VFR. SCT mid and high-level clouds. West-
northwest wind around 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with increasing mid-level clouds. Light and
variable wind. High confidence.

Sunday...VFR to start. Light rain will move in from west to
east 15-17Z, with MVFR ceilings accompanying it. Visibility
restrictions are possible as well at times. South-southwest wind
10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Restrictions possible with low clouds lingering
through most of the night. WNW wind gusting 15-20 knots.

Monday through Monday night...Primarily VFR. Chance (30-40%) of
sub-VFR conditions in rain or snow late Monday night.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions expected in low
clouds and periods of rain/snow for the northwestern terminals,
and in rain elsewhere. Conditions should improve by late Tuesday
night.

Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines through tonight with west-northwesterly
winds around 10-15 kt today becoming southeasterly at 5-10 kt.
South- southeasterly wind will begin to increase mid-morning
Sunday to 20- 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas will increase to
4-7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued starting at 10
AM Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night...A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Sunday
night for all marine zones with a NW wind gusting to 25-30
knots and seas 4-6 feet.

Monday...SCA conditions possible in the morning with winds near
25 knots. The winds lessen through the day.

Monday night...No marine hazards anticipated with winds below
25 kt and seas below 5 feet.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions likely with east
winds increasing to near 25-30 kt and then becoming northwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds look to diminish Wednesday
afternoon. Seas 5-7 feet, also diminishing Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Thursday night...SCA conditions possible
Thursday afternoon into early Thursday night as NW winds
increase to near 25 knots and seas reach near 5 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper/Guzzo
NEAR TERM...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Guzzo
LONG TERM...Guzzo
AVIATION...Cooper/Guzzo
MARINE...Cooper/Guzzo