457
FXUS65 KPIH 242006
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
106 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds this afternoon and early evening. Wind advisory
  in effect Eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain through 8
  pm.

- Rain and snow showers early this evening in the eastern
  mountains. Drying after midnight.

- Unsettled pattern ahead and the potential for much colder
  temperatures late in the weekend into early next week. High
  uncertainty for where, when and amounts of snowfall at this
  time.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1227 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Main impact will be very strong winds through early this evening
behind the cold frontal passage with the wind advisory for the
Eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain ending at 8 pm. Other
impact will be continuing rain and snow showers in the eastern
mountains which will end by midnight. Lows tonight single digits
and teens mountains with teens and 20s in valleys. Highs Tuesday
near seasonal normals with 20s and 30s mountains and mid 30s to
lower 40s Snake River Plain and Eastern Magic Valley. Winds will
be light on Tuesday. A weak wave pushing east over upper level
ridge to west Tuesday night will bring a slight chance of
showers into the Sawtooths and central mountains and eastern
highlands as well. 90 percent chance QPF under 0.10 Tuesday
night. Lows Tuesday night warmer in the teens mountains and 20s
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

The extended portion of the forecast looks generally uneventful
through Thanksgiving Day. Will likely see some high elevation
showers Wed-Fri across the higher terrain of the central mountains
and eastern Highlands but the lack of any meaningful moisture would
keep any impacts limited to just some very light snowfall. We`re
talking an inch, at best, during this time period with the Island
Park area mostly likely to see any along with the higher peaks near
the Tetons and the Sawtooths but most areas will be dry during this
period. Additionally, temperatures look to remain at or on the
warmer side of normal with Thanksgiving Day likely the warmest day.
Temps will likely top 50 degrees during the afternoon hours across
parts of the Snake Plain and into the Magic Valley.

Things take a sharp turn colder as we look to head into the weekend
and early next week with models showing an upper level trough
swinging through the area over the weekend. Where they disagree
though is with respect to the depth of this colder air intrusion
just how much moisture, if any, will be present when it occurs. That
being said, confidence is increasing in a significant cooldown for
the weekend where high temps areawide may struggle to get above the
freezing mark. There is much less confidence however when it comes
to the precip side of the forecast. As such, felt it best to
continue to run with the NBM which is a general broadbrushed
approach to PoPs indicating at least some chance for snow throughout
the area, even in the valleys, but confidence on the precip side of
the forecast is low. Bottom line, stay tuned - as it appears that
our relatively mild November is going to come to an abrupt end as we
near the last day or two of the month and push into December. Things
on the precip front can and likely will change over the next few
days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Right on cue, winds have begun to increase across the Snake
Plain impacting KIDA and KPIH with gusts in the 25-35 kt range.
Winds will continue to be breezy, to a lesser extent, at KDIJ,
KBYI and KSUN through the rest of the daylight hours as a
frontal boundary moves through the region. Could see some light
showers over the next few hours but these look to be pretty
isolated but VCSH remains in place nevertheless. Winds will
begin to taper off later this evening and especially into the
overnight as a cooler airmass moves into the area for tomorrow.
VFR CIGs are mostly expected through the period but some very
brief MVFR CIGs can`t be ruled out especially in and around any
showers.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...McKaughan