395
FXUS65 KPIH 022048
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
248 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storm possible today in the central Mountains

- Transition day tomorrow with increasing rain chances and
  cooling temperatures for parts of the area

- Showers, storms and much colder temperatures for the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery shows a mixed picture across the
forecast area with clouds in place across the central mountains
while the Snake Plain and far SE Idaho are generally seeing mostly
clear skies. Areas with clearing have warmed into the upper 60s and
lower 70s with more heating expected before the day is done. Areas
in the central mountains however have struggled to get out of the
50s for the most part with persistent clouds and scattered showers.
As we progress into the evening and overnight, expect precip to
become more widespread in coverage, and intensity, across the
central mountains and perhaps sneaking into parts of the Magic
Valley. An upper low will move closer to the region as we get into
the day on Friday and precip chances will increase from west to east
over the course of the day. It will probably take until mid/late
afternoon before precip becomes more prevalent across the Snake
Plain and into the eastern highlands. Nevertheless, a wet pattern is
expected as we get into tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures will
vary significantly from NW to SE with 50s and 60s in the NW part of
the CWA with upper 60s to mid 70s likely in the far SE part where
the onset of precip looks later along with some breaks in clouds
which will allow temps to warm accordingly. We do still have a Flash
Flood Watch out for the Wapiti Burn Scar area near Stanley where
debris flows are still possible. Friday Night, we will have the best
chance for rainfall in the short term as the low moves overhead. We
will most likely see rainfall amounts range from 0.10 to 0.25
inches. We will likely see our first high elevation snow Friday
Night with an inch or two possible above 9000 feet across the
central mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Precip looks to linger across the region for much of the day on
Saturday as the low moves across northern Utah and into western
Wyoming. Expecting widespread precip for Saturday with daytime highs
likely only topping out in the 40s and low to mid 50s, at best,
regionwide. The region will reside in a broad upper trough across
the Pacific NW throughout the weekend so even as the low moves into
Wyoming on Sunday, we will likely still see some wrap-around precip
across the eastern half of the region with continued cooler than
normal temps with continued temps in the 40s and 50s for our daytime
highs on Sunday. Upper level troughing will give way to weak ridging
building back over the region for the start of the workweek. This
will allow temps to start on an slow,upward trajectory for the
workweek next week. Things will run on the cooler side of normal,
but still generally pleasant, with a fair amount of sunshine
expected. A few weak upper level shortwaves may swing through the
region during the week which could bring some clouds and maybe an
isolated precip chance across the higher terrain but things look dry
for much of eastern Idaho next week. Perhaps things become more
active as we get closer towards next weekend but this far out in
time, confidence isn`t too high. We`ll see how things trends over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The main concern will be for SUN. Any potential for showers or
storms really doesn`t shift farther south and east until later
Friday afternoon. All guidance points toward increasing
potential for showers and/or storms throughout the period. All
of the guidance points toward development ANYWHERE in a narrow
area from Galena Summit to the northwest and Richfield/Carey to
the southeast. Confidence is high enough to include VCSH, except
for a few hours overnight. We did maintain PROB30 for
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, which indicates
the potential for MVFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Our main window for showers and storms is late
tonight through Sunday. Trends continue to pull the more widespread
band of rain and high mountain snow farther west. The latest trend
basically keeps heavier totals basically west of a line from Wisdom,
MT to around Galena Summit. Amounts are holding fairly steady in
that area.  The official forecast calls for 0.50-1" of
precipitation, including lower elevations. If you look at the total
range of amounts, that is low end/high end probability
forecasts...you will see that the low end totals are around 0.30"
for valleys and up to 0.40-0.85" for the mountains.  The high end
ranges are 0.80-1.0" for valleys and up to 2" for the mountains.
There is a VERY LOW potential for up 2.25" across the Frank Church.
Other areas are looking at 0.10-0.60" for the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley and 0.50-1" for the rest of the highlands and mountains. Low
end amounts for the Snake Plain/Magic Valley are up to 0.25" and up
to 1" on the high end.  For the other highland and mountain areas,
the low end is 0.10-0.40" and 0.50-1.5" on the highest end. The more
steady trend showing up is colder temperatures. For the weekend,
highs in the valleys should be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with
plenty of 30s and 40s to spread around in the mountains. For next
week, we will see another split flow system drop south across the
western U.S. We are expecting a break in precipitation Tuesday, but
picking back up by midweek. The big "IF" at that point is if we just
see the low crossing Idaho as a weak storm, or a stronger low
develops to our west and develops southerly flow over us. If that
pattern develops, there are some hints we may see a huge surge of
moisture coming from one or more tropical systems in the eastern
Pacific.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes