296
FXUS65 KPIH 270804
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
104 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional mainly mountain rain and snow showers continue

- Above average temperatures through Friday

- Significantly colder temperatures over the weekend through
  early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

Our abnormally warm pattern will remain in place for the next
36-48 hours. Some light precipitation will shift north and east
across our area through early Friday, with little to no impact
for us. We will see a quick hitter drop southeast tomorrow and
tomorrow night, bringing a shot of rain and snow to central and
eastern Idaho. With this low coming in from the northwest, this
will help produce a slightly better chance of moisture for the
Snake Plain and bench areas...and also finally kick off rain and
snow for the southeast corner. Snow levels will peak at
5500-6500ft ahead of the push of colder air. If we get some
heavier precipitation to fall during this period, it is possible
snow levels drop another 500-1000ft...even if it not going to
accumulate. Little precipitation, if any, falls tomorrow with
this storm at lower elevations. Most mountain ranges will see
around 0.10" or less, although portions of the eastern highlands
could see 0.10-0.30". There is a 10-40% chance of exceeding that
threshold during that 24 hour period. That equates to 1-4" of
highest elevation snow, with under 1" possible in the valleys.
Winds do pick up with this low passing through, but nothing
widespread and of significance it appears right now.
Temperatures remain on the mild side, but today will be the
warmest with valley temperatures hitting the mid 40s to mid 50s
for highs. Tomorrow remains ABOVE AVERAGE, but barely and will
be down 5-10 degrees from today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

This system for Friday and Friday night exits quickly, but is
followed by the second feature arriving late Saturday. Light
snow may be possible down to some valley floors Saturday night.
Accumulations should remain light, even at higher elevations for
both systems. The story, though, is the cooler air expected to
filter into the region beginning Sunday as the system sags
through the region. 35% of the ensemble members are sharper and
colder with the trough on Sunday into Monday, while all clusters
agree on general timing of the feature. NBM probabilistic
spread on temperatures does not seem as drastic as it was
earlier this week, though the deterministic temp is still
running at the high end of the spread, so there is likely some
wiggle room for lower temperatures to come early next week.
Third system of the extended period arrives Tuesday for another
round of precipitation into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 845 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Northwest flow aloft continues tonight through tomorrow with more
mountain snow showers in the forecast. Will continue with VCSH in
the TAF for SUN as we continue to see radar returns out there
tonight, though are hard pressed to confirm anything making it to
the ground. Overall, dry conditions are expected at BYI, PIH, and
IDA, but the clouds moving into BYI and PIH are lowering CIGs just a
bit more than originally anticipated. Still VFR, but closer to
borderline VFR/MVFR. There`s another small (around 10 percent)
chance for a few flurries at IDA and PIH again early Thursday
morning just like we saw this morning, but little to no impacts are
expected. We are most likely to see impacts at DIJ where there is
closer to a 40 percent chance for snow showers. IFR conditions are in
the TAF for DIJ with low VIS and CIGs as snow showers pass through
with the most likely timeframe being from around 11Z to 16Z Thursday
morning.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...AMM