413
FXUS65 KPIH 012332
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
532 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues.

- A few showers or sprinkles expected in the mountains late this
  evening into early Sunday.

- Better chance of precipitation returns toward the middle to
  end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Early afternoon satellite shows clouds continuing to clear from
northwest to southeast as flow aloft turns zonal, with mostly clear
skies already over Southeast Idaho. Daytime temperatures are already
surpassing "normal" highs for this time of year and will reach 5 to
10 degrees above normal both today and tomorrow. Winds will trend
breezier this afternoon ahead of an approaching weak cold front that
will reach the central mountains overnight/early Sunday morning.
Winds will gust to around 20 mph beginning this evening across the
majority of Southeast Idaho but a touch stronger further north when
the boundary swings through. Chance of precipitation will run around
25 to 35 percent across north-central Idaho beginning late tonight
through Sunday afternoon. Snow levels will start off quite high,
generally remaining over 7,500 feet during the timeframe of any
accumulation, meaning generally mixed precipitation with very little
snow accumulation, less than one inch generally, above the
aforementioned elevation. Expect breezy westerly winds again Sunday
afternoon with zonal flow aloft. Daytime temperatures behind the
front on Sunday will run just a tad cooler although overnight lows
will warm slightly due to increased cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Temperatures early next week will start off slightly warmer than
climatological averages. Snow levels over 8K feet on Tuesday will
drop to 6K-7K feet come Thursday as the first system arrives
and temperatures finally drop to right around or below normal.
PoPs enter the forecast late Monday, steadily increasing through
late week as two upper troughs shift through. Models show a
large degree of uncertainty and differences heading into the
weekend, with cluster solutions varying between high pressure
and low pressure in control. That said, confidence is very low
in forecast temperatures and chance of precipitation for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions continue overnight through Sunday afternoon. Is a
weak wave pushing through to the north but have no precipiation
but only a period of VCSH at both SUN and DIJ. SUN tomorrow
morning and DIJ tomorrow afternoon. Expect mid level ceilings as
well at all TAF sites. Winds will increase with front moving
through Sunday and have 10 to 20 sustained and gusts 20 to 30
knots Sunday afternoon at all sites as well.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...GK