166
FXUS65 KPIH 182028
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
128 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No high impact systems expected through the weekend but some
  isolated showers will be possible each day.

- Temperatures to remain at or slightly above climatological
  norms through next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 120 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery shows continued mid/high level
clouds streaking across eastern Idaho today. Have seen a few
breaks from time to time across the Magic Valley and parts of
the Snake Plain allowing a bit more sunlight to shine down on
the area but for the most part, it`s been another mostly cloudy
day. Temps however remain on the warmer side of normal with low
to mid 50s being observed across the lower elevations with 40s
across the high country. Precip hasn`t been too much of an issue
today and it likely won`t be through daybreak tomorrow aside
from maybe a very isolated rain/snow shower around Island Park
or into the central mountains. Overnight lows should be
seasonably mild, once again, with lower elevations low running
within a few degrees, above and below, the freezing mark. As we
head towards daybreak Wednesday, a weak upper level impulse will
swing through the area and hi-res CAMs show the potential for
some light showers to develop mid-morning across the central
mountains and into the SE part of the area, perhaps even into
the Snake Plain. These would be light, isolated to scattered in
nature, and of relatively low impact however. Snow levels
generally remain above 7kft so rain is the most likely precip
type for MOST locations. Winds should remain light for Wednesday
along with continued above normal temps for mid November.
Expect upper 40s to lower 50s across much of the lower valleys
tomorrow, mid to upper 40s across the high country.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Thursday through next Monday.
Plenty of active weather continues throughout the Western half
of the United States during the extended forecast period, but
we are hard pressed to get any or much of it to make its way
into Eastern Idaho. On Thursday, on area of low pressure will be
dropping into northern California and while that brings about a
15 to 20 percent chance for some showery activity in parts of
the Central Mountains and South Hills, that low will continue
its drop southward through California and take most of the
moisture with it. This low will open the door for some cooler
air to work its way into our area though, as we see highs go
from mostly low to mid 50s on Thursday to 40s on Friday. Weak
ridging keeps us looking mostly dry for Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday. Models are advertising the potential for a cold front to
pass through late Monday into Tuesday which would bring another
drop in temperatures and a small chance for precipitation, but
it doesn`t look very impressive at this point. We will keep
watching and waiting!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1027 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites today. We
will see an increase in some FEW to SCT low clouds once again
tonight, but impacts are expected to remain limited, if we see any
at all. Winds will remain light today and tonight, too. Two areas of
low pressure, one to our north and one to our south, will bring weak
troughing through Eastern Idaho and some isolated showery activity,
but any rain chance remains low enough to keep out of the TAFs for
now. Intermittent rain showers are possible (~20% chance) at DIJ
today and we`ve seen a few sprinkles there already. However, rain
chances will increase for DIJ tomorrow afternoon, closer to 40
percent, so look for some VCSH or -SHRA to show up in later TAF
issuances. VCSH already added to SUN for tomorrow afternoon for
increasing rain chance there, too.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...AMM