657
FXUS65 KPIH 122032
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
132 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Thursday.

- Dry conditions continue through most of Thursday. Most
  precipitation starts Friday.

- Cooler temperatures return into the weekend and especially
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 122 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery shows continued mid/high level
clouds across the region this afternoon and this will continue
through the evening and into the overnight. In fact, coverage
may become even more overcast before all is set and done. Mild
temperatures continue with the region still under the influence
of an area of high pressure for a few more days. Temps currently
in the 50s for most lower elevations with a few spots likely to
top 60 shortly remains about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
These above normal ranges will continue during the overnight
hours with lows mainly in the 30s and 40s throughout eastern
Idaho. The ridge will begin to get suppressed throughout the day
tomorrow as an upper level trough looks to move into the
Pacific NW on Friday. Southerly winds will increase tomorrow as
we start to feel the influence of the aforementioned trough so
this should allow temps to rise into the 60s across much of the
Snake Plain and Magic Valley. Not expecting any wind related
headlines as these will be in the 10-15 mph range, with gusts
20-25, but still a bit higher than what we`ve seen the past few
days. Should get some mostly clear skies during the afternoon
and evening hours tomorrow before things start to cloud up again
into Friday AM. This is when precip returns followed by temps
taking a noticeable downward trend as we get into the weekend
and especially into the next work week. More on that below.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Fri through next Wed night. The current weak Rex block continues
into Sat, but an upper level trough breaks up the weak ridging
and comes in phase with the closed low over southern CA and it
appears to merge and bring the moisture of the closed low from
CA into the Pac NW on Mon, then most solutions bring an open
wave through the northern Rockies on Tue, with 32 percent of the
solutions keeping the moisture farther south, so it is not a
slam-dunk at this time, but it looks very good for some much
needed "catch-up" precipitation for November. Light
precipitation could start as early as Sun in the mountains. The
upper level troughing stays around through Wed night with more
troughing in 65 percent of the solutions in the clusters.

After the first merging upper level trough, which will likely
have mild temperatures, the others later in the week appear to
have much colder air, bringing temperatures down from 15 to 20
deg F above normal for afternoon highs to 5 to 10 deg F above
normal on Mon. With the abundant cloud cover at night, overnight
lows continue mild for the time of year, even in the Stanley
Basin.

Expect a tremendous change in the wind, which lately has been so
close to calm, to be breezy to windy (10 to 20 mph Fri, then Sun
afternoon onward 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions to continue with light winds throughout eastern
Idaho. SCT/BKN high clouds become more BKN/OVC later tonight and
overnight before some clearing is expected for much of the
daylight hours tomorrow before clouds return just around
14/00-06Z or so. No precip is expected and winds should remain
light until just beyond the current 18Z forecast period before
starting to increase out of the south tomorrow around 10-15 kts
for most areas outside of KSUN.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan/TW
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...McKaughan