275
FXUS65 KPIH 090803
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
103 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures expected throughout the week

- Rain and higher elevation snow likely, with most impacts above
  pass level

- Breezy/windy conditions will persist through at least midweek

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 102 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

AR event moves through the region today from the northwest.
Typically these event would produce widespread rainfall but with
this one arriving from the northwest. We are seeing quite a bit
of shadowing off the central mountains. For most of us that is
leaving primarily wind for today. We will be near wind advisory
across the Snake River Plain today with a 40 to 50 percent
chance of reaching advisory levels on the sustained criteria of
25 mph. The gust criteria of 45 mph looks less likely of
occurring over a widespread area. Gusts over 45 mph will likely
be isolated and limited to known gusty areas such as Antelope
Flats east of Idaho Falls, Botts, INL, Arco Desert, and
Pocatello airport. Rain chances today are mainly limited to the
mountains and highlands. The central mountains will see best
rain amounts ranging from a few hundredth around Ketchum and
Hailey to 0.25 to 0.50 at Stanley. The mountains west of Stanley
and Galena should do well with up to 1.00 inches likely today
and tonight. The eastern highlands will see rainfall amounts of
0.10 to 0.25 inches with up to 0.75 inches by Wednesday morning.
Snow levels will be high, probably over 7000 feet. Several
inches of snow is likely in the Sawtooths and around along the
Tetons. But snow levels are too high for snow amounts to be of
much impacts to our main roadways.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Extremely mild conditions is the main talking point in the long term
period with temperatures ranging in the 15 to 20 degrees above
normal range Wednesday through next Monday.  At this point for the
next 8 days there appears to be no intrusion of cold air on the
horizon.  Will have lingering showers Wednesday with the retreating
atmospheric river conditions sliding north as upper ridge begins to
build to west.  Precipitation mainly limited to the Sawtooths,
central mountains and eastern highlands.  Snow levels between 8 and
9 thousand feet so not expecting snow impacts by Wednesday.  It will
be windy with 20 to 30 mph sustained winds in the Snake River Plain.
 Highs Wednesday mainly 40s mountains and 50s to near 60 valleys.
Thursday through next Monday generally much drier with only some
mountain showers with high temperatures remaining very warm with
mainly 40s mountains and mid 40s to mid 50s valleys.  By Friday
expect to see a significant decrease in wind speeds as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1007 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Main impacts for the rest of tonight and tomorrow mainly
deal with wind with gusty conditions likely at all TAF sites by
tomorrow afternoon and gusts likely at PIH and IDA for the rest of
the night. Winds at SUN will likely be light maybe occasionally
downvalley. Think SUN will become westerly or southwesterly by
afternoon with a few gusts to near 20 kts. Although quite a bit of
moisture is streaming through the region. Drying effects are
resulting in very little ceiling or visibility impacts. DIJ is the
only site that could see a reduction of ceilings and visibilities
from passing showers tonight and through the day on Tuesday. The
HRRR is indicating a convergence zone moving down from the north
tomorrow afternoon which could affect IDA, but confidence is low at
this point.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...13