951
FXUS65 KPIH 160002
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
502 PM MST Mon Dec 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures will continue, even with a
  cooldown coming our way

- Wetter and windy conditions move in this afternoon but
  heaviest precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Potential for a significant mountain snow event Thursday into
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 233 PM MST Mon Dec 15 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across much
of the region but this will be very short-lived. Just to our
west, dense cloud cover is seen on satellite imagery in
association with a weak frontal boundary that will move through
the area overnight bringing increasing clouds and some scattered
shower chances, mainly across the higher terrain of the central
mountains and parts of the eastern Highlands. Temperatures this
afternoon remain 15-20 degrees above seasonal averages with
upper 40s to lower 50s across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.
Encroaching cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures much
warmer tonight than where we were this morning and another mild
day, similar to today, is expected for Tuesday. Hi-res CAMs do
show some potential for some showers across the southern half of
the region tomorrow, including across the lower Snake Plain,
then pushing into the eastern Highlands as we get into the
afternoon and evening hours. A second surge of moisture,
associated with a potent shortwave that will move north of the
area Wednesday, will move into the central mountains during the
late evening and especially throughout the overnight hours into
Wednesday AM. This will bring some impacts to the area, mainly
in the form of a very windy Wednesday. More on that below.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MST Mon Dec 15 2025

A major pattern change will arrive mid-week as an area of low
pressure tracks eastward to our north bringing very windy and wet
conditions to much of Southeast Idaho. Winds will drastically
increase Wednesday, with high-end Advisory-level to low-end Warning-
level winds anticipated for much of the region. Ensembles continue
to suggest widespread gusts ranging 45 to 60 mph on Wednesday. Given
the moderate confidence in reaching widespread warning level wind
gusts, in coordination with neighboring offices we have have issued
a High Wind Watch for the majority of our CWA. The mountains largely
above 7,000 feet will also see snow, which in conjunction with
strong winds could result in visibility reductions and blowing and
drifting snow. Current snow totals for this round range around 6
inches to one foot above 7,000 feet elevation, with locally higher
totals above pass level. Snow levels will even briefly drop to
valley floors Wednesday night into Thursday morning, allowing for
valleys to potentially observe some light snow as well, although
models show QPF decreasing quite rapidly during the evening as the
system continues eastward and any snow observed down low will likely
melt on contact due to warm surface temperatures.

A very short-lived break is expected Wednesday night into early
Thursday with the next round of precipitation arriving after sunrise
Thursday. This will be a long-duration, high-elevation snow.
Temperatures and snow levels will rebound rapidly on Thursday, with
temperatures warming back into above-normal territory into the 30s
and 40s across the low to mid-elevations. Locations above 7,000 feet
will receive another foot of snow with two to three feet forecast
above 8,000 feet elevation in the central mountains between Thursday
and Saturday. The is not the end of the snow for our mountains
however, with light snow rates forecast to continue into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 453 PM MST Mon Dec 15 2025

The high pressure ridge over southeast Idaho continues to break
down with more zonal flow aloft setting up ahead of a strong
cold front that will move through the area late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday. Expect VFR conditions through this period.
Expect clouds to gradually lower from the current high-level
clouds to mid-level with some lower-level clouds (035 to 050)
for KSUN and KDIJ by late tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be a
little breezy with gusts of 20 to 25 kts by tomorrow afternoon.
Expect showers early tomorrow, Tuesday, evening for KSUN with
MVFR CIGS likely. Widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS and gusts of 40 to 50
mph are expected for most TAF sites late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning and afternoon.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon for IDZ051>058-062-064-065-068>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...TW