088
FXUS65 KPIH 190913
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
213 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No high impact systems expected through the weekend but some
  isolated showers will be possible each day.

- Temperatures to remain at or slightly above climatological
  norms through next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 212 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

The primary consideration this morning is the potential for patchy/
areas of fog. Models and current observations are supportive of low
stratus or fog continuing to spread eastward across the Magic Valley
into the Burley area, which could impact the morning commute along I-
84. Otherwise, we`re already observing radar returns and minimal
liquid accumulation across eastern Idaho as a shortwave approaches.
Rain and snow showers will favor the central mountains and eastern
Idaho, although even the Snake Plain could also see some isolated
rain showers later this afternoon, as well. That said, accumulations
will be very light and snow levels high, ranging 6,500 to 8,000 feet
throughout the day, resulting in minimal snow accumulation up to
around an inch or two across the highest elevations. Daytime
temperatures will be similar to yesterday`s, perhaps just a touch
cooler, but will continue to warm 5 to 10 degrees above
climatological norms into the low 50s across most of our valleys and
30s and 40s in the mountains and mid-elevations/mountain valleys,
respectively. With relatively more cloud cover overhead tonight,
overnight lows will run a touch warmer in the 20s and 30s
areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Plenty of active weather continues throughout the Western half
of the United States during the extended forecast period, but
we are hard pressed to get any or much of it to make its way
into Eastern Idaho. On Thursday, on area of low pressure will be
dropping into northern California and while that brings about a
15 to 20 percent chance for some showery activity in parts of
the Central Mountains and South Hills, that low will continue
its drop southward through California and take most of the
moisture with it. This low will open the door for some cooler
air to work its way into our area though, as we see highs go
from mostly low to mid 50s on Thursday to 40s on Friday. Weak
ridging keeps us looking mostly dry for Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday. Models are advertising the potential for a cold front to
pass through late Monday into Tuesday which would bring another
drop in temperatures and a small chance for precipitation, but
it doesn`t look very impressive at this point. We will keep
watching and waiting!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Main aviation concern continues to be fog and/or low stratus
potential at KBYI. The NBM and HRRR continue to aggressively support
impacts while some other guidance sources don`t, and we`re not yet
seeing a clear picture in surface trends on weather stations as well
as satellite to confirm or deny anything from guidance scenarios.
Refined timing in the 06z TAF just hinting at possible impacts from
10-17z/3-10am with 6SM BR VCFG SCT005, but confidence just isn`t
there to introduce actual cig or vsby hits. There remains a solid 30-
40% chance of IFR or even LIFR conditions should this "go" and the
surface fully moisten. Amendments are possible as we continue to
monitor. Elsewhere, VFR conditions and very light winds.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...01