220
FXUS65 KPIH 272031
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
131 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional mainly mountain rain and snow showers continue

- Above average temperatures through Friday

- Cold unsettled conditions continue throughout the extended,
  with potential for light snow accumulations down to valley
  floors at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

Quiet weather and mostly mild temperatures in place across much
of eastern Idaho on this Thanksgiving afternoon. Afternoon
satellite imagery shows cloud cover gradually on the increase
however, especially in SW Idaho, and this cloud cover will make
its way back into our area overnight and into Friday morning.
Until then however, temps are quite mild for late November with
upper 40s to mid 50s in place across the lower valleys this
afternoon. Today will be the warmest day though over the next
week as things take a downward trend beginning tomorrow. Dry
conditions will continue across the area until tomorrow. That`s
when an upper level shortwave will swing through the region
bringing with it increased cloud cover and precipitation chances
once again. Looks like precip will mostly be limited to the
higher terrain of the central mountains, along the Montana
Divide and into the eastern highlands. Cooler temps tomorrow
will support snow as the dominant precip type in these areas but
this system won`t have much moisture with it so with QPF
generally around a tenth or less, snowfall amounts are likely to
be an inch or less for most areas that do see precip. Some
higher mountains passes and peaks could get a touch more. Not
expecting much, if any, precip to fall in the lower valleys
tomorrow although a stray shower or two is certainly possible.
Temps in the Snake Plain would likely support more of a
rain/snow mix, especially if during the afternoon hours. Either
way though, not expecting anything overly impactful if/when
precip does occur in our valley areas. Temps Friday will be
about 5- 10 cooler than today with them continuing to trend down
as we move into the weekend. More on that below.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

Series of shortwaves expected to impact East Idaho through the
extended, increasing deep and cool northerly flow and
introducing the potential for light snow even to lower
elevations. The first shortwave arrives Sat into Sunday, but a
lack of significant moisture will keep precipitation amounts
light with minimal, if any, travel impacts. The highest snowfall
amounts look to be Sunday into Sunday night with generally 1-3"
across higher elevations in the southern and southeast
highlands. Cooler air mass is in place for Sunday into Monday,
with daytime highs in the 30s and overnight lows in the teens.
Once again the deterministic NBM temps are outliers to the
spreads, so could see some changes in forecast temperatures
moving into the weekend. Following a break in the precipitation
Monday, next shortwave drops into the region Tuesday.
Differences in the ensemble clusters are starting to become more
amplified this far out, leading to differences in precipitation
potential for East Idaho. Temperatures still look cold enough
to sustain snow or brief mix in the afternoon with potential for
light accumulations even to valley floors. Looking ahead to the
latter half of the week, ensembles diverge significantly, with
a roughly 60/40 split between rebuilding a ridge across the west
or introducing a faster system to the PacNW. There is little
certainty by the time we reach the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1027 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions should remain in place through early Friday for
all sites. The next system arrives during the afternoon Friday
with an increase in cloud cover during the day, down to MVFR at
times for the afternoon. Of all the sites, DIJ may have the best
chance of light SHSN Friday afternoon.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...DMH