Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
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088 FXUS65 KPIH 190913 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 213 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - No high impact systems expected through the weekend but some isolated showers will be possible each day. - Temperatures to remain at or slightly above climatological norms through next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 212 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 The primary consideration this morning is the potential for patchy/ areas of fog. Models and current observations are supportive of low stratus or fog continuing to spread eastward across the Magic Valley into the Burley area, which could impact the morning commute along I- 84. Otherwise, we`re already observing radar returns and minimal liquid accumulation across eastern Idaho as a shortwave approaches. Rain and snow showers will favor the central mountains and eastern Idaho, although even the Snake Plain could also see some isolated rain showers later this afternoon, as well. That said, accumulations will be very light and snow levels high, ranging 6,500 to 8,000 feet throughout the day, resulting in minimal snow accumulation up to around an inch or two across the highest elevations. Daytime temperatures will be similar to yesterday`s, perhaps just a touch cooler, but will continue to warm 5 to 10 degrees above climatological norms into the low 50s across most of our valleys and 30s and 40s in the mountains and mid-elevations/mountain valleys, respectively. With relatively more cloud cover overhead tonight, overnight lows will run a touch warmer in the 20s and 30s areawide. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 120 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 Plenty of active weather continues throughout the Western half of the United States during the extended forecast period, but we are hard pressed to get any or much of it to make its way into Eastern Idaho. On Thursday, on area of low pressure will be dropping into northern California and while that brings about a 15 to 20 percent chance for some showery activity in parts of the Central Mountains and South Hills, that low will continue its drop southward through California and take most of the moisture with it. This low will open the door for some cooler air to work its way into our area though, as we see highs go from mostly low to mid 50s on Thursday to 40s on Friday. Weak ridging keeps us looking mostly dry for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Models are advertising the potential for a cold front to pass through late Monday into Tuesday which would bring another drop in temperatures and a small chance for precipitation, but it doesn`t look very impressive at this point. We will keep watching and waiting! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1123 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 Main aviation concern continues to be fog and/or low stratus potential at KBYI. The NBM and HRRR continue to aggressively support impacts while some other guidance sources don`t, and we`re not yet seeing a clear picture in surface trends on weather stations as well as satellite to confirm or deny anything from guidance scenarios. Refined timing in the 06z TAF just hinting at possible impacts from 10-17z/3-10am with 6SM BR VCFG SCT005, but confidence just isn`t there to introduce actual cig or vsby hits. There remains a solid 30- 40% chance of IFR or even LIFR conditions should this "go" and the surface fully moisten. Amendments are possible as we continue to monitor. Elsewhere, VFR conditions and very light winds. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cropp LONG TERM...AMM AVIATION...01