830
FXUS65 KPIH 170704
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
104 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend expected into early next week

- No precipitation expected until at least this weekend and even
  then, chances will be low into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 103 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows much of the region void of
cloud cover as high pressure begins to build over the area. Will
likely see at least some occasional CU for areas closer to the
Wyoming border where an upper low still lingers across the Cowboy
State but for the most part, skies should be mostly clear today.
Winds will also be light and the region will be void of
precipitation. Temperatures will continue to trend upwards today,
and for the days ahead, as the ridge of high pressure continues to
strengthen. Low to mid 70s appear likely across the lower elevations
today. Overnight lows tonight into Thu AM will mainly be in the 40s,
with 30s across the high elevations. These too will trend upwards
over the days ahead.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

High pressure resurges for a bit across the state, bringing dry
weather until the weekend. The ridge breaks down as a couple of
weaker lows scoot across to our north and west. Enough monsoon
moisture is there for some showers and storms over the weekend,
but nothing too widespread or concerning at the moment. High
pressure rebounds early next week as a blocking pattern tries to
set up over the U.S. and southern Canada. Depending where that
exactly settles in will determine if we are dry under the ridge
or under southwest flow and trying to pull some monsoon moisture
our way. For now, the Blend of Models keeps us dry after
Sunday. Temperature continue to creep back up, with some low 80s
returning through Saturday and again next week...with a very
brief "cooldown" on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 915 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

High pressure axis will be over western Idaho for at least Fri,
so expect no CIGs with the exception of KDIJ where residual
moisture will likely mean cumulus build-ups for the afternoon
again. There should not be any restriction to VSBY; the issue
with VSBY at KBYI is the sun angle into the sensor imitating HZ
or BR. The upper level wind is very weak, and there is still a
northerly to easterly flow at KIDA and KPIH with the axis
staying to the west, and a thermal surface pressure trough
underneath. Thus wind should not be impactful, either.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

A warming and dry pattern looks to take hold for the remainder of
the work week with no rain chances expected until at least the
weekend, and even then they`ll still be low, as high pressure will
be in control of local weather. Temps will rise above climatic norms
by the end of the week which will bring lower elevation RHs close to
15 percent by Friday but not expecting winds to be much of a
concern. Isolated precip chances return to the forecast for the
weekend as a weak system looks to move north of the area. Some
potential for increased winds with this but still a bit of model
uncertainty with that. Confidence is high with above normal
temperatures looking likely into early next week with mostly dry
conditions.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan