959
FXUS65 KPIH 171717
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1117 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A break between systems with predominantly dry weather is
  expected today and Saturday.

- Warm Sunday with 60s returning for some areas!

- A fast-moving, generally low-impact system is expected to
  bring light rain and snow showers, along with breezy
  conditions, Sunday into portions of Monday. This system has
  been trending a bit drier in model guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Aside from some lingering low stratus and patchy fog this
morning, our break between storm systems has arrived with
predominantly dry conditions expected today and Saturday. One
progressive shortwave trough will brush across our forecast area
from the north tonight...just enough to bring slightly breezier
conditions especially at higher elevations of the Central
Mountains and MT border, as well as perhaps a couple stray
rain/snow showers northeast of Rexburg in areas like Island Park
and Driggs. No major impacts are expected. Otherwise, expect
highs today to reach the 50s for most population centers and
mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Weak ridging will be over the area to start the day on Saturday
which should keep things dry across eastern Idaho along with mostly
clear skies and dry weather. Temps will be on the cooler side of
normal by a few degrees, generally upper 40s to upper 50s,
throughout the region. Southerly flow will increase during the
overnight hours into Sunday ahead of an approaching trough that`ll
swing north of the area. Models have been trending PoPs and QPF back
a bit now with this feature looking to stay more to the north
compared to a few days ago. We`ll still see increased cloud
cover and some high elevation precip chances but not sure now
how much precip, if any, will be seen across the Snake Plain and
Magic Valley. It will help bring cooler temps back into the
area though after a more mild Sunday is expected. Highs on
Monday will likely struggle to climb above 50 throughout much,
if not all, of eastern Idaho. Upper flow looks to become more
zonal on Tuesday in the wake of the aforementioned trough which
should keep the forecast mostly dry but temps will be slow to
moderate into the middle part of next week with highs mainly in
the 50s expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

We continue to deal with a lot of low and mid level cloud cover
this morning. Our TAF sites are now all VFR with some gradual
improvement expected at DIJ. SUN will likely be flirting with
low clouds trying to work back in from south of the airport.
Confidence is lower than usual with a switch to a south wind due
to northwest flow overhead. Winds continue to be non-existent or
light out of the northwest when they should be already
switching to the south. If we can`t get a switch to occur in the
next couple of hours, then they likely remain variable or out of
the northwest for the rest of the day. The current TAF delays
any wind shift until later in the afternoon with the potential
of removing at that point if no switch is detected. Otherwise,
we did hint at lower clouds and/or fog redeveloping overnight.
The airmass should be a bit drier, BUT many places have had a
ton of moisture in the past couple of day which may overtake any
drying that is forecast to take place. We know that sounds like
a bunch of what-ifs, but the models haven`t been handling things
well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A break between storm systems will support mostly dry conditions
today and Saturday. One progressive shortwave trough will brush
across our forecast area from the north tonight...just enough
to bring slightly breezier conditions especially at higher
elevations of the Central Mountains and MT border, as well as
perhaps a couple stray rain/snow showers northeast of Rexburg in
areas like Island Park and Driggs. No major impacts are
expected. Our next storm system...a larger progressive
shortwave trough...will bring light rain and snow showers along
with increased winds Sunday into a decent chunk of Monday. This
system has been trending a bit drier in model guidance, but
winds have been trending slightly stronger focused especially on
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. The best chance of wetting
rain/snow will be in Zone 475 as well as northern Zone 422.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...01