613
FXUS65 KPIH 031932
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1232 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low pressure passes to our north bringing some light
  precipitation tonight and Tuesday

- Gusty winds expected tonight and Tuesday

- Better chances of rain and snow from midweek onward cooler
  temperatures returning

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

A fast moving low clips our area tonight and tomorrow. For many
of us, it will be an increase in wind with just some sprinkles
or flurries. Stronger winds tomorrow will occur across the
central mountains, Snake Plain and adjacent benches from
American Falls through Rexburg. Gusts of 20-30 mph are in the
forecast starting this evening and last well into Tuesday. We
should precipitation spreading southeast overnight and Tuesday
morning, before decreasing and shifting back north tomorrow
evening. Areas around Bear Lake potentially might not even see a
sprinkle or flurry as the latest trends keep any falling
precipitation out of the southeast corner. We MIGHT see a
sprinkle or two across the Snake Plain but that is pushing
things quite a bit. Looking at actual precipitation amounts,
the focus will be across the Sawtooths, Stanley Basin, and
locations adjacent to the Tetons and Island Park. Around Island
Park and the Teton Valleys, we should see up to 0.10" of
moisture (rain or the equivalent when melting snow). There is a
20-40% chance of exceeding that across higher elevations, with a
big jump once you get into Wyoming. Outside of the Sawtooths,
expect less than 0.25" mainly from near Galena Summit into areas
along U.S 93 in Lemhi County westward , with a 30-50% chance of
exceeding that total. For the Sawtooths and adjacent ranges,
look for 0.25-0.50" coming out of the Blend of Models. This is
consistent also with what higher resolutions models are showing,
although with the speed of the low passing by...it still might
be on the high side. The lower end is hitting 0.10-0.30" in
that area, with the high end hitting 0.50-1.0". We wouldn`t be
shocked to see totals closer to the lower end and MAYBE pushing
0.50" in a couple of spots along the spine of the Sawtooths.
Where we see accumulating snow, only look for maybe a couple of
inches at best in the central mountains. If we get some of the
possible higher amounts along the spine of the Sawtooths, we are
talking isolated spots with 3-6". With the storm coming
through, we are shaving 5-8 degrees off of highs Tuesday, with
warmer spots in the valleys barely hitting 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day in the extended with upper-
level SW flow expected ahead of an approaching upper level trough.
Clouds will be on the increase over the course of the day with
precip moving into the central mountains by mid afternoon, then
reaching the rest of eastern Idaho by the late evening and overnight
hours into Thursday. Best moisture will be across the central
mountains but snow levels are quite high (8kft or so) so any snow
will be at and above mountain passes with very little rainfall
expected across the lower valleys in the Snake Plain or Magic
Valley. Colder air will filter in for Thursday with things mostly
dry outside of some lingering shower chances in the higher terrain
of the central mountains and eastern highlands. Temps will stay in
the 40s and 50s across the region however. These cooler temps will
linger into Friday while another system moves north of the region
once again sparking some rain/snow chances for the region. With
cooler temps in place this go-around, could get some snow into the
Stanley Basin and maybe around Island Park on late Thursday and into
Friday with rain expected below 6500 ft or so. Again, not a ton of
QPF with this feature either but should be enough for at least some
minor accumulations at and above pass level.

Things look to dry out as we head towards the weekend with models
and clusters showing increasing likelihood of ridging for the
weekend and into the first part of next week. NBM appears to be
lagging behind with this change from previous forecasts so massaged
things to show more clearing and lower PoPs than the NBM as this
pattern should result in drier weather and above normal temps for
the weekend and into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1032 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

We are looking at increasing mid and high level clouds along
with wind as the next storm approaches. Those winds will start
late this afternoon and into the evening and remain strongest at
PIH and IDA with gusts of 20-25kts. At the moment, we are likely
not meeting criteria to include Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) but
will need to watch that trend throughout the day and into this
evening. We will see some light showers near SUN and DIJ, but at
the moment will only include VCSH at SUN.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Keyes