315
FXUS65 KPIH 240802
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
102 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stronger winds this afternoon especially across higher
  elevations of the central mountains and Snake Plain/Magic
  Valley

- Quick round of showers through this evening with mostly light
  snow in the mountains

- Unsettled pattern ahead and the potential for much colder
  temperatures late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 102 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

We have a quick hitter swinging through this evening, bringing
more wind than anything else. There will be some light
precipitation coming with this, mainly in the form of snow
showers across the mountains. We COULD see a few light showers
across lower elevations, but chances are low especially for
anything measurable. The bulk of the moisture is across the
Sawtooths and surrounding mountains, and the Tetons/Big
Holes/Sawtell Peak area. There is a 30-60% chance of exceeding
0.20" across the Sawtooths and 35-65% chance of exceeding that
across mainly areas adjacent to the Tetons and Yellowstone. That
equates to just a couple of inches of snow with locally higher
amounts. Snow levels peak at 5000-6500 ft ahead of the colder
air arriving. The low end of the snow level range does indicate
we could see a mix or some snowflakes at lowest elevations...but
nothing significant or at pass level. Now, getting to the
wind...we should see that pick later this morning and last
through mid evening before things quickly shut down. Many areas
will see gusts 25-35 mph. We will see gusts hitting 35-50 mph
across portions of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, especially
if we can get stronger mixing going this afternoon. We currently
have a WIND ADVISORY in place for the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley, and will leave it alone. The wind forecast overall did
come down a bit since Sunday, but not enough to make any
changes. We are dry most of Tuesday, with the next round quickly
moving into the central mountains and eastern highlands
tomorrow night. Before cooler air filters in later today, highs
will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s across valley locations.
Tomorrow will see highs 5-10 degrees cooler with low 40s only
forecast across the Magic Valley and south toward the Utah
border.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Shallow upper ridge is in place for through Thanksgiving Day,
There is still some expectation for weak energy to overtop the
ridge especially Wednesday and Thanksgiving for light
precipitation mainly higher elevations. Travel impacts should be
minimal, if any for these days. Ensembles diverge on details
for the remainder of the forecast period, but the general tone
remains similar to previous days. Incoming PacNW shortwave dives
south through the western states Friday into Saturday,
developing a deep trough across the Intermountain West for the
weekend. Showers become more widespread Friday and Saturday,
with potential for light snowfall to reach valley floors by late
Saturday. What could be the coldest air mass of the season so
far looks possible for Sunday into early next week. There is
still a lot of spread in the ensembles, and significant
differences in the depth of the trough via the ensemble
clusters. Thus there is still a lot of potential for change this
far out in the forecast. As of now, the probabilistic chance of
forecast highs BELOW freezing for lower elevations Sunday and
Monday are roughly 15-35% for most lower elevation areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

A variety of minor tweaks were made to the TAFs for the 06z package,
but no drastic trends or shifts. An approaching shortwave trough
will bring thickening mid-level clouds tonight, with high confidence
in any cigs remaining solidly VFR through late morning Monday at
KBYI/KIDA/KPIH, and through at least sunrise at KSUN/KDIJ. We then
advertise a period of VCSH at all terminals...CAMs continue to
support the best chance of rain/snow showers near KSUN and
(especially) KDIJ, but confidence is still too low to upgrade beyond
VCSH at this time for precip. Cigs may be close to the MVFR
threshold with these showers at KSUN/KDIJ. Elsewhere, expect winds
to increase as VCSH potential decreases and ends, with a cold front
crossing the region during the afternoon. Strongest winds start 16-
18z/9-11am Monday depending on location. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for the eastern Magic Valley/Snake Plain corridor including
KBYI/KPIH/KIDA, translating into a solid 20g30kts locally at
KPIH/KIDA and still breezy at all other terminals. Still watching
KSUN and KDIJ for the potential to get close to LLWS criteria for a
time Monday afternoon...after reviewing the latest forecast VWPs,
went ahead and added a very borderline LLWS remark to KDIJ starting
at 18z/11am emphasizing winds will be quite strong aloft even with
some mixing to the surface. Winds should drop off quickly everywhere
Monday evening with skies trending toward clear or perhaps FEW high-
level clouds drifting through.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MST this evening for
IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...01