486
FXUS65 KPIH 012004
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
204 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues.

- A few showers or sprinkles expected in the mountains late this
  evening into early Sunday.

- Better chance of precipitation returns toward the middle to
  end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Early afternoon satellite shows clouds continuing to clear from
northwest to southeast as flow aloft turns zonal, with mostly clear
skies already over Southeast Idaho. Daytime temperatures are already
surpassing "normal" highs for this time of year and will reach 5 to
10 degrees above normal both today and tomorrow. Winds will trend
breezier this afternoon ahead of an approaching weak cold front that
will reach the central mountains overnight/early Sunday morning.
Winds will gust to around 20 mph beginning this evening across the
majority of Southeast Idaho but a touch stronger further north when
the boundary swings through. Chance of precipitation will run around
25 to 35 percent across north-central Idaho beginning late tonight
through Sunday afternoon. Snow levels will start off quite high,
generally remaining over 7,500 feet during the timeframe of any
accumulation, meaning generally mixed precipitation with very little
snow accumulation, less than one inch generally, above the
aforementioned elevation. Expect breezy westerly winds again Sunday
afternoon with zonal flow aloft. Daytime temperatures behind the
front on Sunday will run just a tad cooler although overnight lows
will warm slightly due to increased cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Temperatures early next week will start off slightly warmer than
climatological averages. Snow levels over 8K feet on Tuesday will
drop to 6K-7K feet come Thursday as the first system arrives
and temperatures finally drop to right around or below normal.
PoPs enter the forecast late Monday, steadily increasing through
late week as two upper troughs shift through. Models show a
large degree of uncertainty and differences heading into the
weekend, with cluster solutions varying between high pressure
and low pressure in control. That said, confidence is very low
in forecast temperatures and chance of precipitation for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Satellite imagery shows mid and upper level cloud cover is
slowly shifting out of East Idaho late this morning. Brief
clearing this afternoon will give way to another round of cloud
cover tonight into Sunday. BYI, PIH, and IDA remain dry through
the forecast period. The highest chance of precipitation tonight
occurs at SUN between 09Z and 15Z, but the probability is less
than 15% so will leave forecast dry. Showers shift east to DIJ
after 15Z Sunday, but the best chances occur after 18Z so will
leave VCSH out for now. Winds do increase slightly to around
10kts sustained for all terminals with passage of this feature.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...DMH