736
FXUS65 KPIH 022024
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
124 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of snow this afternoon and tonight, ending late.

- After a break Wednesday, light snow with occasional periods of
  rain returns Wednesday night and continues on and off through
  the weekend.

- Windy to very windy conditions probable Friday afternoon
  through Saturday night for the Snake River plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1240 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

An upper level trof will slide through Idaho this evening with
cold front pushing south and a north to south moving band of
precipitation expected to develop. Generally 1 to 3 inches of
snow is the most likely amount in the southern and eastern
mountains with locally heavier amounts in the mountains south of
Burley. Expecting up to an inch in the Snake River Plain
including Idaho Falls, Blackfoot and Pocatello. At those sites
near 100 percent chance for over 0.1 inch and around 20 percent
chance for more than an inch.  Expecting some minor traffic
impacts after sunset with the potential for some snow covered
roads. It will turn much colder tonight with lows in the teens
and 20s with snow ending after midnight. Wednesday will be dry
and cool with highs slightly below normal in the 20s to low 30s
mountains and low to mid 30s valleys. Light snow showers will
return to the eastern mountains late Wednesday night but no
impacts expected. Lows Wednesday night again in the teens and
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

The long term forecast period remains an active one. On Friday, our
next wave of moisture will be moving into Eastern Idaho and bringing
a mix of rain and snow showers with it. Highs on Friday will range
from low to mid 30s in the upper Snake River Plain and Eastern
Highlands to low to mid 40s in the eastern Magic Valley and lower
Snake River Plain, hence the mix of rain and snow showers. There
looks to be a short break in the activity on Friday evening before
the next wave moves in from the northwest for Saturday before
another short break Sunday morning. Afternoon highs continue to be
above freezing for many on Saturday, but some of the warmer
temperatures also coincide with some drier periods throughout the
timeframe. All in all, let`s take a look at some preliminary,
potential snow amounts for this Friday/Saturday snowfall. Of course,
it comes with the caveat that it will chance over the next several
days! For now, the NBM is showing about a 10 to 15 percent chance of
over an inch of snow in Pocatello and Idaho Falls and about a 10
percent chance of two inches of snow in Rexburg. There`s about a 30
to 40 percent chance of at least 4 inches in Stanley and about a 60
percent chance of the same in Driggs. It also shows about a 15 to 20
percent chance of 6 inches of snow in Stanley and Driggs. Looking at
some of our passes, there is about a 40 to 50 percent chance of 8
inches of snow for Galena Summit and Pine Creek Pass and a 70
percent chance of 12 inches of snow at Emigration Summit. Again,
these numbers and probability WILL change over the next few days,
but Friday/Saturday is looking like a solid snowfall for our passes
and mountains. Also of note, winds will increase with this wave,
too, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1030 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Scattered snow showers will be the main impact today and through
early tomorrow morning along with some breezy conditions from time
to time today. The first push of snow this morning has already moved
through BYI, PIH, and SUN so those three sites should be a bit
milder for the next few hours with generally VFR to borderline MVFR
CIGs and wind gusts ranging from 15 to 25kts at BYI and PIH. Snow is
still moving through IDA and is expected to arrive into DIJ within
the next hour or two. We`ve seen VIS drop to around 1SM at times
with this snow, so went with IFR conditions at DIJ for the bulk of
this afternoon and early evening. Speaking of this evening, another
round of snow is expected from IDA to PIH to BYI as a convergence
band sets up right around 00Z at IDA this evening and drops
southward through PIH before wrapping up around 06-07Z at BYI.
Confidence in impacts at IDA is a bit lower as there is more model
agreement on impacts to VIS and CIGs at PIH and BYI back down to IFR
conditions. Watching for some BR and low stratus after the snow
wraps up, particularly at BYI and PIH. SUN generally stays out
of most of this mess thanks to the northwest flow that typically
shadows SUN from -SN in this kind of setup.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...AMM