635
FXUS65 KPIH 070917
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
217 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow in the mountains this afternoon and tonight. Rain
  in some of the lower elevations

- Even warmer temperatures on Tuesday, approaching record
  warmth.

- Moderate to heavy snow for high elevations in the mountains
  and highlands Tuesday-Tuesday night. Windy Tuesday night
  through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Coastal upper level ridging continues to keep the forecast area
on the edge of the storm track, a little farther north than
during the latest winter storm. This means slightly warmer
temperatures which will push snow levels higher. The next short
wave moving through this mean northwesterly flow arrives during
the afternoon and continues overnight. Light precipitation
continues on Mon/Mon evening, with snow level remaining fairly
high. Then Mon late night/Tue/Tue night an impulse with much
more moisture pushes in through and leaves moderate to heavy
snow in the mountains and light rainfall at lower elevations.

Temperatures are still forecasted to be very mild for the time
of year. Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley will range
from 35 to 45 deg F for today. Even Stanley is in the upper
30s. On Mon, afternoon highs are up another 2 to 4 deg F with
eastern Magic Valley surpassing 50 deg F. The 50 deg highs
nearly reach Idaho Falls on Tue. And Stanley on that day exceeds
40 deg. Cloud cover at night also means mild overnight lows,
with few places below 6000ft elevation getting below freezing.

Being so near the storm track aloft, some of that momentum can
be seen at the surface, but on the order of 15 to 25 mph wind at
a maximum.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 155 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Cluster analysis was not available at forecast time. The good
news is that the deterministic NBM indicates that Wed is the
last period for significant precipitation for the entire
forecast area. The upper level ridge has been expected to
amplify, and this time it looks like it will be sunny and dry
conditions, with high temperatures in the lower 50s for the
lower Snake River plain and Magic Valley, with overnight lows
getting colder with less cloud cover, eventually dropping below
freezing Thu night or Fri night. With the feature that passes
through at the end of the near term forecast, there will be some
post frontal wind that continues Wed and Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

Only a few minor tweaks/nudges needed for the 06z TAFs looking
through Sunday evening. The 00z suite of HREF CAMs did little to
increase our confidence in timing/placement of any organized
rain/snow shower activity Sunday afternoon and evening. In fact, if
anything, the picture has trended a bit drier with even less overall
agreement. Thus, we maintain VCSH only everywhere except MVFR -SHSN
at KDIJ. Conceptually, this does match our big-picture expectations
that moist northwest flow over the next several days will mostly
target some of our mountain ranges for significant QPF. Some
additional lowering of cigs is possible Sunday night. Previous
discussion is below.

Issued at 438 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

Other than wrapping up a few more snow showers near KDIJ through
05z/10pm, all terminals will see VFR conditions this evening and
tonight. There is a low chance of low stratus developing near KIDA
with mixed signals in the guidance, but confidence is low, and have
only hinted at development for now with FEW015. Clouds
increase/thicken again Sunday as some more moisture heads our way on
northwest flow. Some CAMs are generating bonafide showers over
portions of the forecast area by afternoon, but for now have gone
VCSH everywhere but KDIJ where at least MVFR conditions are expected
with snow showers. Will continue to monitor trends/agreement in high-
res guidance for precip potential Sunday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...01