743
FXUS65 KPIH 181728
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1028 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showery weather continues throughout the week with low
  confidence in timing and amount for any location.

- Cooler temperatures but still above climatic normals for the
  time of year through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 401 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Satellite this morning shows a wide range of cloud heights and we
continue to monitor for any fog formation and associated impacts.
Two cutoff lows will shift further inland today, with one tracking
along the US-CA border and the other southeast along the CA coast.
While conditions will largely remain dry over Southeast Idaho,
South/Southwest flow aloft today will advect weak moisture from the
southern low and keep chances for high elevation showers in the
forecast through the first part of the day today. Heading further
into the afternoon and evening hours, models show moisture signals
remaining further north and south of us. We will begin to see clouds
scattering later today, allowing daytime highs to reach around 10
degrees above climatological norms, warming into the 50s across most
of our valleys and 30s and 40s in the mountains and mid-
elevations/mountain valleys, respectively. With less cloud cover
overhead tonight, overnight lows will run several degrees cooler
tonight with widespread 20s and 30s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

The extended portion of the forecast remains unsettled but also
fairly low-impact as the upper flow aloft looks to remain split
across our part of the country. Models show a couple of cutoff lows
moving into California from mid week and into the weekend while most
moisture stays clear of eastern Idaho. Still could see some isolated
high elevation showers at some point but models seem to be going
back and forth with this. Temperatures will remain on the
warmer side of normal by around 5 degrees. This equates to upper
40s and low 50s for highs in the valleys but there is still a
decent spread within the model guidance so things could still
fluctuate a bit over the days ahead. Either way, not seeing any
high impact systems between now and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1027 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites today. We
will see an increase in some FEW to SCT low clouds once again
tonight, but impacts are expected to remain limited, if we see any
at all. Winds will remain light today and tonight, too. Two areas of
low pressure, one to our north and one to our south, will bring weak
troughing through Eastern Idaho and some isolated showery activity,
but any rain chance remains low enough to keep out of the TAFs for
now. Intermittent rain showers are possible (~20% chance) at DIJ
today and we`ve seen a few sprinkles there already. However, rain
chances will increase for DIJ tomorrow afternoon, closer to 40
percent, so look for some VCSH or -SHRA to show up in later TAF
issuances. VCSH already added to SUN for tomorrow afternoon for
increasing rain chance there, too.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...AMM