472
FXUS65 KPIH 232049
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
149 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM Monday.

- Quick round of mountain snow tonight through Monday thanks to
  the same cold front bringing Monday`s wind.

- Unsettled pattern ahead and the potential for much colder
  temperatures late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

This morning`s patchy dense fog has finally eroded and many of
us are enjoying some afternoon sunshine. As we soak it up,
highs will return to the mid and upper 40s for most with a few
low 50s here and there. Late tonight, a cold front begins to
work its way into our CWA and it will bring some mountain snow
and gusty winds with it along with cooler air, but the chill
won`t reach most of us until Tuesday. Since this is a quick
moving front on Monday, we`re not expecting too much
precipitation with it. In fact, most of us in the eastern Magic
Valley and Snake River Plain will stay totally dry with most of
the snow confined to our mountains once again. There`s about a
10 percent chance for at least an inch of snow up near Stanley,
about a 30 percent chance of the same for Victor and Island
Park, and about a 40 percent chance of at least an inch for Pine
Creek Pass and Emigration Summit. It will be above 8000 feet or
so where we see the bulk of our snow and that will be closer to
2 to 7 inches for our mountains by the time snow ends late
Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

What more of us will notice on Monday will be the wind. As the cold
front moves through, expect winds to increase quite a bit from the
"light" winds we`ve been enjoying for most of this last week and
weekend. Sustained winds will generally range from 20 to 30 mph with
gusts up to 50 mph. Have gone ahead and issued a Wind Advisory
for the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain for Monday
from noon to 8 PM. The NBM is showing about a 40 percent chance
of 50 mph gusts and a 60 to 80 percent chance of gusts greater
than 45 mph from Carey across the Arco desert/Craters of the
Moon area to Atomic City. It`s about a 20 to 40 percent chance
of 45 mph gusts from American Falls up to Idaho Falls and about
a 15 percent chance of 50 mph gusts. As noted by the advisory
ending at 8 PM, winds will diminish in the evening and will be
much lighter on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Shallow upper ridge is in place for Tuesday through Thanksgiving
Day, There is still some expectation for weak energy to overtop the
ridge especially Wednesday and Thanksgiving for light precipitation
mainly higher elevations. Travel impacts should be minimal, if any
for these days. Ensembles diverge on details for the remainder of
the forecast period, but the general tone remains similar to
previous days. Incoming PacNW shortwave dives south through the
western states Friday into Saturday, developing a deep trough across
the Intermountain West for the weekend.  Showers become more
widespread Friday and Saturday, with potential for light snowfall to
reach valley floors by late Saturday. What could be the coldest air
mass of the season so far looks possible for Sunday into early next
week. There is still a lot of spread in the ensembles, and
significant differences in the depth of the trough via the ensemble
clusters. Thus there is still a lot of potential for change this far
out in the forecast. As of now, the probabilistic chance of forecast
highs BELOW freezing for lower elevations Sunday and Monday are
roughly 15-35% for most lower elevation areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1042 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

IFR fog and low stratus still impacting the corridor between
PIH and BYI this morning, but satellite imagery shows
dissipation and trend should continue through about 20Z.
Upstream we are beginning to see high clouds work toward East
Idaho ahead of pair of shortwaves approaching the region.
Ceilings lower to 6k-10k ft overnight through Monday morning,
bringing SHSN to higher elevations. The only terminals that have
the potential for SHSN at this point may be SUN and DIJ after
12Z Monday, with the remaining terminals remaining dry. Winds
begin to increase mid-morning Monday as well, but the strongest
winds are expected Monday afternoon associated with passage of
the cold front.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MST Monday for IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...DMH