761
FXUS65 KPIH 110914
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
214 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer conditions through Wednesday

- Precipitation returns as early as Thursday

- Cool temperatures return Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Looking at current water vapor imagery, there is mostly zonal
flow aloft from a wave that is passing over western/central
Montana. Models show high pressure ridging build back in across
our area today into Wednesday bringing dry conditions and
mild/warmer temperatures. Late Wednesday models show the ridge
move just east of our area bringing southerly flow into our
area ahead of a system that will move through Thursday into
Friday. Expect temperatures today and Wednesday about 15 to 20
degrees above normal with temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 120 PM MST
Mon Nov 10 2025

East Idaho begins to see signs of the high pressure breaking
down by Thursday as amplified shortwave trough shifts inland
along the PacNW coast. Temperatures remain warm ahead of the
system, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s even into Thursday
ahead of the frontal system associated with the shortwave.
Ensemble clusters show slightly different timing on the system
arrival, with precipitation onset offset slightly later for
25-30% of the ensemble members. Overall, precipitation begins to
reach the central mountains as early as Wednesday night, but
generally spreads across the region Thursday. Snow levels start
out high but drop to near valley floors Thursday night, bringing
a mix of rain and snow to lower elevation areas. Temperatures
remain cold into Friday, continuing the threat of rain/snow mix
at lower elevations during the day. At this time, the
probabilities for any accumulations more than a dusting through
the Interstate corridors of the Snake Plain is less than 10%.
Trend is for precipitation to weaken Friday night into early
Saturday, as a weak transitory ridge shifts through the state,
though showers continue mainly over higher elevations through
the weekend. Another weak system is projected to arrive late
Sunday into Monday for another round of precipitation.
Temperatures remain cool with daytime highs only in the 40s, so
potential exists for a rain/snow mix continuing at lower
elevations into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1029 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

High pressure will keep conditions dry and VFR with FEW to SCT high
clouds. Winds, variable at times, will generally remain under
10 kts throughout the period.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Cropp