115
FXUS65 KPIH 041933
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
133 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers, a few thunderstorms, and much colder temperatures are
  on tap to round out the weekend.

- Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning expected for very cold
  temperatures Sunday night.

- Uncertainty headed into late next week, but generally drier
  with temperatures trending back to seasonal normals mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Satellite and radar imagery show split flow trough in place
over East Idaho with widespread shower activity but only a few
lightning strikes so far. Cool and damp weekend continues with
widespread showers through tonight, tapering to mainly scattered
showers for Sunday. Brief heavy rain remains possible, but
generally hit or miss with significant spread in precipitation
amounts generally between 0.10" and 0.50" tonight. In general,
the most persistent activity will be the Snake Plain and
southern/eastern highlands. Temperatures remain cool with gusty
winds into tonight. The cool pattern continues into Sunday with
a slight bump in daytime high temperatures. Scattered showers
continue Sunday as another shortwave drops through the panhandle
during the day. Precipitation amounts remain spotty again given
the nature of the shower activity, but could range above 0.25"
at the high end of precipitation estimates, especially over
higher terrain. There is still potential for a few inches of
snow at ridge top level. Cold temperatures begin to arrive
Sunday night, with expectations for some combination of Frost
Advisory or Freeze Warnings. If low end estimates pan out, the
Upper Snake Plain could see a Hard Freeze with a 40% chance of
temperatures at or below 28 F. Stay tuned for potential
headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Upper trough lingers into early next week but gives way to weak
ridging by Tuesday. Temperatures begin to rebound from the
weekend lows, but remain below normal. Next deep Pacific trough
takes shape off the PacNW coast, deepening southwest flow across
the state. A few model solutions want to pull Pacific energy
inland beginning as early as Wednesday night, but there is
better consensus on precipitation arriving for the weekend.
Temperatures gradually warm back up to near normal for the
latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

We continue to deal with a wide variation in visibility and
ceilings due to showers and a few storms around. We have seen so
far this morning (and continue to see) VFR to LIFR conditions
across the area. The trend should be a gradual end to showers
and storms with this round later this afternoon and evening.
Later tonight and Sunday, we are looking for a resurgence of
showers with the next low dropping through our area. We have a
mix of VCSH and -SHRA for all sites through the next 24 hours.
We will wait and see if we need to add any type of mention for
-TSRA, as lightning has been fairly isolated and confidence is
 fairly low for any impacts at a particular airport.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Showers and isolated storms will persist through tomorrow
night, although after today...precipitation amounts will quickly
drop off. Snow levels bottom out around 6500-7500ft between the
2 storms moving across the state in the next 48 hours. Most of
the precipitation falls across the eastern and southeast
highlands. Lower elevations could see up to another 0.50" and up
to 1" in the mountains. Portions of the Bear River Range could
see up to 1.25" of additional moisture. If you look at the high-
end totals, which would be more of an extreme case but certainly
not out of the question...Another 1-2" is possible in the
mountains and up to 1" in the valleys. Current trends also show
an area of heavier precipitation across portions of the Snake
Plain, Magic Valley and around the mountains surrounding the
Wood River Valley. Look for another 0.20"-0.40" there. The high-
end scenario shows 0.20"-0.60" over most of the same area, with
up to 1" in the mountains surrounding Hailey and in general
around the Pocatello area. A few showers may linger on Monday,
but Tuesday and most of Wednesday are dry. This where things get
a little tricky for midweek. Some of the extended models show
the low developing along the coast far enough west to keep us
dry until next weekend. Some have the low dropping south a
little closer to Idaho, which could bring a few showers for the
end of the week itself. Our Blend of Models forecast shows the
latter, and we certainly can`t rule it out. Much more certainty
returns next weekend, at least for now, with a big surge of
moisture from the remnants of a tropical system in the eastern
Pacific. Highs today and Sunday will only top out in the 40s and
50s. Warmer weather will return after Monday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes