692
FXUS65 KPIH 151707
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1007 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief break is expected today, then more active pattern
  returns with more widespread precipitation Sunday into Monday.

- Active pattern beyond Monday with more systems likely.

- Warm temperatures in the short-term with cooler temperatures
  arriving for midweek and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 147 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Looking at current water vapor imagery there is a high pressure
ridge over Utah and Nevada with an upper level low just off the
southern California coast. Models continue to show high
pressure ridging to build into the area today moving into our
area from our south. Models are still on track for the upper-
level low off the California coast to move over our area Sunday
into Monday.

For today, expect dry conditions, overall light winds, and mild
temperatures (10 to 15 degrees above normal). Highs will be in
the 50s and low 60s. On Sunday, expect widespread rain and snow
showers. Snow levels will be around 9000 feet early Sunday
before dropping to around 7000 feet by late Sunday. Expect 0.10
to 0.75 inches of precipitation across Southeast Idaho.
Mountain, upslope areas in the Central mountains, Wasatch
mountains, and the Big Lost mountains will get around 0.50 to
0.75 inches of precipitation. Expect 3 to 6 inches of snow above
8000 feet in these areas. Sunday temperatures will drop 3 to 5
degrees, but temperatures will still be around 5 to 10 degrees
above normal. Expect high temperatures Sunday in the upper 40s
and upper 50s with just a few 60s expected in the Eastern Magic
valley region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Great Basin low shifts northeast through East Idaho during the
day Sunday ahead of rapidly approaching Pacific trough. Showers
increase across the region during the day. Accumulating snow
once again remains above 8000 ft, though could see a mix of rain
and snow as low as 6500-7000 ft. We do start to see a little
more impact during this time with up to 2" of snow at pass
level, and 3-5" above 8500 ft for the central mountains and the
Bear River Range. Temperatures decrease a little bit, mostly
due to the cloud cover and expected precipitation. Cold front
passes through early Monday, bringing cooler temperatures and a
decrease in shower activity.

Beyond Monday, the models have shifted the long range pattern
toward a series of repeat split trough systems moving through
the western states, with plenty of differences seen between the
deterministic models and ensemble clusters. The NBM has trended
toward maintaining weak showers mainly higher elevation areas
beginning Tuesday and continuing through the remainder of the
extended period following the cold front Monday. Differences in
depth and amplification of the northern stream systems as they
pass through have led to quite a bit of spread in both
temperature and QPF for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1003 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

We will cloud continue to stream in across northern areas along
with more clouds increasing from the south. We will southerly
winds in some spots at 10-20 mph including gusts through sunset.
We could see some sprinkles/light rain late this evening and
overnight with an initial surge of moisture, but we are not
including -SHRA or VCSH with this due to dry air in place below
cloud base. We will see a gradual increase in the chance of
showers toward sunrise and especially later Sunday. We have
included VCSH at all sites with this round due to better
coverage and also an increase in moisture at the surface.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Keyes