494
FXUS65 KPIH 221015
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
315 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory through 10AM this morning for many.

- Remaining dry through the weekend before Monday cold front.

- Unsettled conditions may continue through the Thanksgiving holiday,
  but no significant impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Another morning of low stratus and visibilities down to a quarter of
a mile or less in locally dense fog. The Dense Fog Advisory remains
in effect through 10 AM MST this morning for the Snake River Plain,
eastern Magic Valley, Montana Divide region, Teton Valley, Shoshone
region, and Arco/Mud Lake Desert. Anyone traveling now through later
morning should be prepared for the possibility of slick spots on
roadways and sudden reductions in visibility.

If the stratus manages to clear early enough this afternoon, daytime
temperatures should be able to warm into the mid-40s across our
valleys, which is just a touch warmer than yesterday`s highs. Models
indicate less dense stratus and fog tonight into Sunday morning, so
overnight temperatures are expected to run a bit colder.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

The next shortwave feature arrives late Sunday through early
Tuesday, with cold front passage during the day Monday. Current NBM
means increase the winds along and behind the front to between 25
and 30 mph with gust potential over 40 mph. Light precipitation
appears mainly confined to higher elevations at this time. Cooler
temperatures follow Tuesday, with lower elevation highs dropping
into the 30s. For the holiday period, models are showing signs of
shifting gears again. Although the ensemble clusters agree on a
ridge through the western states, some of the deterministic runs are
a bit flatter with the flow aloft, leading to energy pushing through
the PacNW and producing light precipitation across the northern tier
states. Temperatures remain mostly mild, which would keep snow
generally above valley floors, and thus limiting impacts for holiday
travel concerns for Wednesday through Friday. At least for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Stratus is present at DIJ, PIH and IDA with MVFR heights and
expect to persist through the night. Think the stratus may limit
dense fog forming at those sites but will be straddling MVFR and
IFR conditions with some visibility restrictions toward sunrise.
Moisture has spread unexpectedly northwest into SUN and LIFR
conditions have developed in the southerly flow. Expect the
normal downslope northwesterly winds to return and VFR
conditions to return after 08Z. Expect much of the lower
ceilings to dissipate after 19Z Saturday afternoon at the DIJ,
PIH and IDA sites. Light winds expected through Saturday as
well.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for IDZ051>055-
065>067.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...GK