609
FXUS65 KPIH 282056
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
156 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions today with a fast moving cold front bringing
  the chance for snow showers this afternoon and evening

- Cold unsettled conditions continue throughout the extended,
  with potential for light snow accumulations down to valley
  floors as early as Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Changes are in store as we end the month of November which has
been seasonably mild and mostly dry with a much colder airmass
moving into the region later tonight with snow chances looking
increasingly likely later this weekend and into early next week.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows cloud cover increasing across
the region in association with a cold front that will blast
through the area over the next few hours. Out ahead of this
front, winds have increased across the Magic Valley and the
lower Snake Plain, occasionally flirting with Wind Advisory
criteria, but remaining just below at most locations. Winds will
remain elevated in these areas until the front moves through
the region later this afternoon and evening. As it does, it is
expected to bring with it the potential for some brief snowfall
with the highest probabilities focused across the Montana Divide
area and into the eastern Highlands. Hi-res CAMs do now show
the potential for some of these to make it into the Snake Plain
later this evening specifically around Idaho Falls and around
Pocatello. Temps will be above freezing but sounding profiles
suggest at least a rain/snow mix at the onset of precip with a
quick transition to snow possible, especially if precip rates
are moderate to heavy in nature. That being said, given the
short duration and warm ground temps, seems unlikely that much,
if any, will accumulate during this short time period. Areas
around Island Park, Driggs and into the eastern highlands could
certainly see a quick inch or so fall along the front as it
passes through the area.

Behind the front, temps will drop quickly into the teens and 20s
overnight with some single digits likely as you get closer to
the Yellowstone area. Afternoon highs tomorrow will remain in
the 30s for most of eastern Idaho which will be one of the
colder days we`ve seen in quite some time. It does look mostly
dry though throughout the daylight hours with some occasional
breaks in cloud cover likely but this will be short-lived as it
appears our first real chance this fall for some accumulating
valley snowfall arrives on Sunday. More on that below.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Models have trended wetter into early Sunday as weakly closed
center of upper low tracks through East Idaho, and surface low
sets up over northern Utah. These changes shift toward
increasing snow potential across the southeast half of the
forecast area south of a line from Driggs to Twin Falls. NBM
means now support up to 2" of accumulation in the interstate
corridor of the Snake Plain for Sunday (mainly morning), and
2-4" at higher elevations across the southern highlands,
including the Bear River Range, South Hills, and Albion
Mountains. A break is expected with a weak transitory ridge late
Sunday into Monday, then the next upper trough drops through
the region Tuesday. Another round of snowfall is expected mainly
Tuesday focused over the highlands between I-15 and the WY
border. Daytime high temperatures Sunday into midweek remain in
the 30s, supporting snow down to valley floors. NBM
deterministic low temperatures remain at the high end of the
ensemble spread, indicating potential for colder overnight lows,
especially Monday to Wednesday mornings. For the latter half of
the week, the ensemble clusters in general hold on to unsettled
northwest flow over East Idaho, but there are differences in
the details that could impact if or how much precipitation falls
during the Wednesday through Friday time frame. NBM mean holds
on to periods of very light snows mainly over higher elevations
throughout the time period, with deterministic daytime highs
slowly working upward to around 40 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1052 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Active conditions descend on the East Idaho terminals this
afternoon and evening as cold front drops south through the
region. Gusty west winds with MVFR SHRASN for IDA and PIH
precede the front, which arrives after 00Z tonight. DIJ could
drop to IFR SHSN with frontal passage. Precipitation is less
confident at SUN and BYI, so have continued to omit from the
forecasts. Model soundings indicate quick clearing behind the
frontal boundary this evening with CIGS returning to VFR.
Northerly flow sags into East Idaho behind the front as well,
with speeds dropping below 10kts after 06Z for all sites.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...DMH