409
FXUS65 KPIH 031001
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
301 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild conditions expected today.

- A pattern change will arrive mid-week, bringing precipitation,
  breezy winds, and near-normal to below-normal temperatures.

- Cooler air accompanying the mid-week system will lower snow
  levels to 6,000 to 7,000 feet, meaning rain in the valleys and
  rain-snow mix likely in the mid-elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Weather today looks fairly quiet. Temps will remain
mild ahead of a cold front approaching the region from the
northwest. Many communities will see highs in the 60s today. Winds
look much lighter today. However, upper slopes and ridges could see
a few gusts of 20 to 30 mph. After midnight tonight, the front will
work into the central mountains brining some precipitation. But snow
levels will remain above 8000 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

The extended period begins mild, with temperatures early in the week
continuing to run more than five degrees above climatological
averages. A pattern change will arrive mid-week, resulting in
temperatures cooling to near or below normal for the latter half of
the week. The two wettest days will be Thursday and Friday, as
precipitation associated with a Pacific trough reaches much of
Southeast Idaho by Wednesday, although north-central Idaho could see
precipitation beginning as early as Tuesday. As cooler air filters
in, snow levels will gradually lower to 6K-7K feet by Thursday,
meaning precipitation is forecast to remain all rain in the valleys,
with a rain-snow mix possible in the mid-elevations. Regarding QPF,
we are cautious of inflated NBM values along the spine of the
Sawtooths (PIH/BOI border) and have blended with lower-percentile
NBM and deterministic GFS/ECMWF guidance. Additionally, winds will
increase mid-week as the trough axis swings inland and the pressure
gradient tightens. Model variation increases significantly by next
weekend as Idaho becomes wedged between two upper troughs. While
approximately 20 percent of ensemble members maintain high pressure,
the remaining clusters show significant disagreement on the timing
and depth of these systems. That said, confidence in the forecast
for next weekend remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Winds look fairly light today with some high level
clouds drifting through. Cloud cover will increase tonight with
showers approaching SUN by Tuesday morning.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...13