364
FXUS65 KPIH 302019
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
119 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much colder temperatures remain in place this week with
  another round of snow likely on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 112 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

The upper level shortwave that brought some light snow to parts
of eastern Idaho this morning is already moving into Utah.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows that in its wake, skies are
clearing across much of the area although some low clouds linger
across the south hills and into the Magic Valley. These are the
areas that saw the most of the early morning snow today with
very light accumulations. The snow is mostly over at this point
aside from maybe a few lingering snow showers, with limited
impacts and accumulation, across the far SE portion of the state
around Bear Lake. Models are showing the potential for some fog
overnight tonight but this is likely a bit overdone as not
nearly as much snowfall fall across the region as was advertised
so they`re likely seeing extra moisture in the lower levels
that isn`t actually there. As such, trimmed back the mention of
fog tonight to areas that actually saw light snowfall this
morning but confidence in this is still quite low. Upper flow
tonight remains out of the north and will through the day
tomorrow keeping temperatures cold with overnight lows generally
in the teens with some single digits in the normally colder
mountains locations. HIghs tomorrow will mainly be in the 30s
again throughout the region with things expected to stay dry
until we move into the late evening hours on Monday and into
Tuesday when our next shot at widespread snowfall is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

The next shortwave feature drives south through East Idaho
during the day on Tuesday, focusing precipitation over the
eastern and southern highlands. There is quite a bit of spread
in precipitation amounts for the region, with the deterministic
NBM shading toward the higher end of the probabilistic range.
That said, in general the liquid amounts remain light, so snow
accumulations are expected to remain around or below an inch at
best in the Snake Plain along the I-15 corridor. Higher
elevations generally range 2-4" through Tuesday night. The
shortwave sags south of the state Wednesday, with dry northerly
conditions for most of the region Wednesday. For Thursday
through Sunday, the ensemble clusters remain out of agreement.
The ECMWF and derivatives trend toward rebuilding a ridge across
the coastal states while the GFS and derivatives develop a fast
and wet zonal flow across the eastern Pacific. NBM means
continue to trend toward near to slightly above normal
temperatures and unsettled conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Low pressure system has pushed through East Idaho slightly
faster than forecast today, bringing VFR CIGS to all sites
except BYI, where low stratus has crept in from the southwest.
There are even odds in BYI breaking out to MVFR or VFR this
afternoon or staying under IFR CIGS through the period. Guidance
may also be too aggressive in returning low-end MVFR or IFR CIGS
to PIH and IDA and DIJ, but kept the trend going for now.
Confidence is low, however.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...DMH