836
FXUS65 KPIH 150811
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
211 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms today as a low moves
  through the region

- Below normal temperatures today

- Drying out for late Tuesday through Thursday with temperatures
  warming throughout the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 208 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows an upper low centered across
eastern Washington and the Idaho panhandle. This feature is pushing
a cold front through the region this morning which is producing some
rare overnight convection. Most of the precipitation is in the form
of showers but have seen a few thunderstorms develop producing some
gusty winds and perhaps some small hail. This precip threat will
shift over towards the Wyoming border as we move towards daybreak. A
secondary round of precipitation seems likely as the aforementioned
low moves down towards the Montana Divide later this afternoon
allowing for another round of precipitation across the northern half
of the forecast area. Temperatures today will be noticeably cooler
with much of the region likely staying in the 60s today, maybe some
brief low 70s as you get close to the Utah border. We should have
some decent clearing overnight Monday into Tuesday morning allowing
for temperatures to drop into the 30s and 40s throughout the area.
Doesn`t appear that it`ll be cold enough across the growing areas to
warrant any Frost Headlines however.

The low will be slow to move and will be centered across Wyoming
throughout the day tomorrow. Could see some light wraparound
moisture around the Island Park region but most of us should stay
dry with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will be a few degrees
warmer than today, but still running on the cooler side of normal
ranging from the mid 60s across the higher terrain to the lower 70s
in the lower valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025

High pressure builds in through most of the upcoming week. By
Friday and next weekend, things get a bit iffy forecast-wise.
The GFS show the ridge briefly weakening, but rebuilding by next
Monday, with limited monsoon moisture over Idaho. The ECMWF
shows a low moving through Friday and Saturday, but opening the
door for a period of strong west to east (zonal) flow over the
state. When looking at the cluster forecasts, you can see a
fairly even split between those two notions or somewhere close
to one of those ideas. Our Blend of Models kinda fits either one
as well, with a slight chance/low end chance of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the weekend. We should high
temperatures rebounding a bit, with plenty of 70s around and
more low 80s showing up in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1017 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Models continue to show scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms developing overnight across east Idaho. Will continue
PROB30 for thunder at PIH, IDA, and DIJ through at least part of the
overnight. Will add VCSH at IDA and DIJ with HRRR and 3km NAM
showing some development there. Breezy conditions likely through
Monday. Models are beginning to show some late afternoon showers
potentially affecting IDA and DIJ, but uncertainty too high to
mention at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Early morning showers, and a few thunderstorms, continue this
morning across the region with another round expected later this
afternoon as you head closer to the Montana border. Cooler
temperatures will be in place today and tomorrow but return closer
to normal on Wednesday and then becoming above normal later this
week and into the weekend as high pressure builds over the area once
again. This should keep things mostly dry into the weekend after
today. With the warming temps later this week, RHs will occasionally
come close to reaching critical levels in a few isolated spots but
not seeing any wind concerns this week as they look to remain light.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan