394
FXUS65 KPIH 080801
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
101 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures this week.

- Moderate to heavy snow for high elevations in the mountains
  and highlands tonight through Wednesday.

- Windy conditions at times this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Today is mainly quiet as an AR event gets ready to
move into our area this week. Any precipitation will largely be
confined to the high country and mostly light. Wind gusts today
generally 20 to 25 mph. High temps today will range from the 30s for
the mountains and highlands with 40s to near 50 from the Snake Plain
into the Magic Valley.

Winds will increase tonight as the AR begins to roll into our
region. We will see gusts in the 20 to 35 mph range by Tuesday
morning. This will keep temps up overnight with lows remaining above
freezing across most of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley but still
in the 20s to low 30s for the mountains and highlands. Snow levels
will climb to near or above 7000 feet by Tuesday morning. Heavy snow
is likely across western facing slopes around the Sawtooths and the
higher terrain around Island Park and into the Tetons. In these
areas several inches of snow is likely tonight. QPF is limited to
the central mountains and upper Snake highlands tonight. Midslopes
and lower elevations will probably see a tenth or less but those
western facing upper slopes will most likely see 0.25 to 0.50 inches
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Main impact in the long term is the atmospheric river in place
Tuesday through Wednesday then easing off on Thursday.  Expect
at least a 50 percent chance of an inch of liquid precipitation
over the Sawtooths and Sun Valley region into the central
mountains.  Snow levels rising to above 7 thousand feet Tuesday
and above 8 thousand feet Wednesday so not expecting significant
travel impacts other than at pass level for the most part both days.
High temperatures both days mainly in the 40s mountains to lower to
mid 50s valleys significantly above seasonal normal.  Lows Tuesday
night 30s mountains and 40s valleys and lows Wednesday night again
in the 30s and 40s.  Expect very strong winds both Tuesday and
Wednesday especially in the Snake River Plain with 20 to 30 mph
sustained winds and gusts over 35 mph expected both days.  Not
expecting significant rain in lower elevations.   Will see mainly
dry conditions Friday through next Sunday with warm conditions
continuing through next weekend with high temperatures remaining in
the 40s and 50s so will continue to see the stretch of extremely
warm conditions continue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Trend remains VFR conditions with some increase in wind for the rest
of tonight and Monday, as clouds break up at most terminals (still
very low confidence on any stratus near KIDA). -SHSN impacts have
ended a bit early this evening at KDIJ, but low clouds will persist
for a few hours with low confidence on how quickly they will lift
back toward the VFR/MVFR threshold. Winds are likely to increase
further Monday night just beyond the current TAF period, especially
at KBYI, KPIH, and KIDA. Previous discussion below.

Issued at 434 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Still expecting KDIJ will be the only TAF terminal with organized
precip impacts beyond VCSH, with 04-10z/9pm-3am looking favorable
for IFR conditions with snow showers. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are
expected with winds gradually increasing tonight and Monday. Some
guidance again wants to develop low stratus near KIDA overnight, but
confidence is very low and will only hint at the potential with a
FEW010 for now. Looks similar to last night where we didn`t see
development over the terminal.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...01