761
FXUS65 KPIH 080539
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1039 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures on Tuesday, approaching record warmth.

- Moderate to heavy snow for high elevations in the mountains
  and highlands Tuesday-Tuesday night. Windy Tuesday night
  through Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 146 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Mild northwest flow continues through the short term (and
beyond). Next shortwave in train of features in place through
tonight, with precipitation impacting higher elevation zones.
Warm temperatures remain in place with many lower elevation
areas remaining above freezing even for overnight lows. Snow
levels remain high, 5000-6000 ft overnight tonight, rising to
6000-7000 ft during the day Monday. Liquid precipitation amounts
for this feature through overnight tonight are expected to
generally range 0.10-0.20" at western edges of the central
mountains and the higher elevations east of I-15, but could
range as high as 0.25-0.35", and as low as 0.05". Following a
relative break on Monday, the next feature arrives Monday night,
with similar precipitation amounts expected. Overall, the Snake
Plain should remain dry throughout the short term, but if a few
showers manage to develop, the precipitation should fall as
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Main impact in the long term is the atmospheric river in place
Tuesday through Wednesday then easing off on Thursday.  Expect
at least a 50 percent chance of an inch of liquid precipitation
over the Sawtooths and Sun Valley region into the central
mountains.  Snow levels rising to above 7 thousand feet Tuesday
and above 8 thousand feet Wednesday so not expecting significant
travel impacts other than at pass level for the most part both days.
High temperatures both days mainly in the 40s mountains to lower to
mid 50s valleys significantly above seasonal normal.  Lows Tuesday
night 30s mountains and 40s valleys and lows Wednesday night again
in the 30s and 40s.  Expect very strong winds both Tuesday and
Wednesday especially in the Snake River Plain with 20 to 30 mph
sustained winds and gusts over 35 mph expected both days.  Not
expecting significant rain in lower elevations.   Will see mainly
dry conditions Friday through next Sunday with warm conditions
continuing through next weekend with high temperatures remaining in
the 40s and 50s so will continue to see the stretch of extremely
warm conditions continue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Trend remains VFR conditions with some increase in wind for the rest
of tonight and Monday, as clouds break up at most terminals (still
very low confidence on any stratus near KIDA). -SHSN impacts have
ended a bit early this evening at KDIJ, but low clouds will persist
for a few hours with low confidence on how quickly they will lift
back toward the VFR/MVFR threshold. Winds are likely to increase
further Monday night just beyond the current TAF period, especially
at KBYI, KPIH, and KIDA. Previous discussion below.

Issued at 434 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Still expecting KDIJ will be the only TAF terminal with organized
precip impacts beyond VCSH, with 04-10z/9pm-3am looking favorable
for IFR conditions with snow showers. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are
expected with winds gradually increasing tonight and Monday. Some
guidance again wants to develop low stratus near KIDA overnight, but
confidence is very low and will only hint at the potential with a
FEW010 for now. Looks similar to last night where we didn`t see
development over the terminal.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...01