973
FXZS60 NSTU 150045
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
145 PM SST Fri Nov 14 2025

.Short term [tonight through Sunday night]...
Fair weather conditions with light easterly to southeasterly
winds have been observed throughout the day. However, a change in
weather pattern is expected this weekend. A high pressure system
should strengthen easterly winds 10 to 15 mph tomorrow. Northerly
winds associated with lower pressure north of the territory will
converge with the easterlies, forcing upward motion and focusing
moisture over the territory, increasing rain chances this weekend.
By Sunday, winds will turn out of the north to northeast with
increasing potential for heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
thunderstorms.

.Long term [Monday through Friday]...
The potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will likely
remain through at least early Monday. By midweek, forecast
uncertainty increases due to a wide spread amongst model data
regarding the positioning of the trough. It appears the most
likely scenario at this time is that the convergence and
assoicated trough will move southward, decreasing the flash
flooding threat but remaining close enough to enhance moisture
for continued numerous showers. Winds would likely become light
and variable at this time. By late week, the trough is projected
to move back northward and over the territory, increasing the
potential for flash flooding once again.

No tropical development is expected within 300 nm from American
Samoa over the next 7 days.

&&

.Marine...
Seas of around 4 feet have been observed at Aunu`u and Poloa
buoys over the past several days, bringing ideal marine
conditions. However, this is beginning to change with seas having
jumped to 5 feet in a quick timespan over the last hour. The
increased winds in the area brought by the aforementioned high
pressure system are anticipated to increase seas to advisory
levels tomorrow. Seas are likely to peak Monday in the 7 to 9
feet range as a nearby fresh breeze brings a strong short-period
swell to the territorial waters. In addition, elevated and
unpredictable seas are possible near heavy showers and
thunderstorms as the aforementioned trough lingers in the area
throughout the forecast period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

Barton