Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
180 FXZS60 NSTU 010043 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 143 PM SST Fri Oct 31 2025 .Short term [tonight through Sunday night]... Heavy showers and thunderstorms have been observed devloping in the Manu`a Islands region throughout the day as a trough moves into the area from the north and east. This activity led to issuance of a Flood Advisory for Manu`a earlier in the day, meanwhile Tutuila and Aunu`u have experienced only passing showers. This afternoon`s RAOB upper-air sounding revealed an unstable profile that is becoming more moist with time when compared to last night`s sounding. With thunderstorm activity already in the area and the environment moistening with time as the trough moves closer to the territory, there is high confidence in the potential for heavy rainfall. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch is now in effect. The surface convergence associated with the trough is forecast to strengthen and move across the territory on Saturday. This will lead to winds decreasing and turning out of the north. The trough is forecast to linger over the territory through the weekend, with the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. .Long term [Monday through Friday]... Weak winds out of the north to northeast will continue into early next week. By midweek, winds will turn back out of the east. These easterly trade winds should build back to breezy conditions by Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds south of the territory. The environment is forecast to remain unstable next week, supporting passing showers. Any subtle convergences in the wind field could lead to periods of enhanced rain chances and heavy rainfall potential, but these are hard to predict at this range. && .Marine... Seas exceeded forecast expectations, brifly peaking at over 9 feet last night into early this morning at Aunu`u buoy. However, over the past few hours, seas have begun the expected subsiding trend. Seas are anticipated to continue subsiding to below Small Craft Advisory threshold this weekend as winds turn out of the north and decrease with the passage of the trough. However, gusts near heavy showers and thunderstorms may still briefly elevate seas through Sunday. Seas will then remain below advisory threshold through midweek. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory Flash Flood Watch && $$ Barton